• The Polling Station: Trump Runs Again

    What a year it has been in the world of political betting. Hopefully those following us will have profited from Boris Johnson leaving office early (predicted consistently on these pages too).

  • Buckle up for Trump’s dramatic final series

    The Republican establishment now believe they have a superior candidate in Ron DeSantis, whose 20% margin re-election in Florida sent the strongest signal possible.

  • Get Out The Bet E6: Midterm elections review

    Out today, I look back at the midterms results (or state of play) with Melissa Caen and Patrick Everson in our latest episode. Overall, I think these results largely vindicate our collective analysis, laid out in the first five episodes of our new series. If you would like to check back and hear how our […]

  • US Midterm Elections: Final predictions and markets to follow in-play

    The full article is available, free of charge, at betting.betfair.com This is a huge day in US politics, with voting underway for the Senate and House of Representatives. At stake, control of Congress at a pivotal moment in US and world history. It has profound implications for Joe Biden’s presidency and re-election chances in 2024. […]

  • US Midterm Elections: Key States and Districts

    As always, whilst the entire US electorate is voting for the House, the elections will be decided in a small number of key states and districts. There is betting available on all these individual races. Also, if you’re betting on which party will win the Senate or their seat totals in the Senate, it really […]

  • US Midterms Betting Preview and Tips

    This piece first appeared at casino.org on 1st November 2022 Which Elections Are On And What Betting Is Available? 35 races for the US Senate. Most are very one-sided, which is reflected in the betting. At most, 10 are competitive and we can probably whittle that down to seven. They are Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, […]

  • Latest Betting on the Midterms

    In keeping with the growth of political betting, I can report that this set of midterm elections are well on course to become the biggest ever in terms of betting. At betonline.ag, we’ve significantly expanded our coverage, most notably to include these 20 individual races for the House of Representatives. If there’s any other races […]

  • Politics Live Update: UK government rocked by worsening economic crisis

    Today’s update concerns more terrible economic news and political fallout for Liz Truss’ government, in the wake of their controversial mini-budget. There is much speculation that Truss and/or her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will be forced out of their jobs imminently, and a wide range of betting markets around those subjects. My instinct is that Kwarteng […]

  • Our New Political Betting Show – Get Out The Bet!

    Exciting news! This week saw the launch of my latest project – a brand new weekly show covering political betting – alongside two excellent co-presenters, Melissa Caen and Patrick Everson. We will be mostly US focused, but also cover the big international elections and markets. Every week we’ll be analysing market moves, with a special […]

  • Will Truss survive to the next election and, if not, who replaces her?

    we are at the stage of Liz Truss’ tenure as Prime Minister where convention dictates she would get a bounce in the polls, or at least a hearing. After the collapse of Tory support under Boris Johnson, the only way was supposed to be up. Wrong.

  • Politics Live Update: Two October Surprises

    Then, the OPEC decision to cut oil production, representing deeply worrying news for governments everywhere.

  • Politics Live Blog: Labour odds now in freefall

    Today’s entry reports on five extraordinary polls released yesterday, and a dramatic shift in betting sentiment towards Labour during the past seven days, since Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.

  • Keir Starmer’s textbook opposition strategy looks vindicated

    In that sense, he’s following in the footsteps of the previously successful opposition leader, Tony Blair. The parallels with the 1990s, Black Wednesday and Tory implosion, are obvious.

  • Is Liz Truss being prematurely written off?

    The key to successful betting on politics is thinking ahead, trying to forecast the trajectory of events and their effect.

  • US Mid-Term Elections Betting Preview

    The states in play are relatively favorable to Democrats – an exact reversal of 2018, when Republican Senators defied the Blue Wave at House level.

  • Politics Live – Rolling Betting News Blog via Betfair

    First, an update. You may have noticed this blog’s disappearance over the past six months or so. This was due to a hack. Followers of my Twitter account may have some theories about that, but, as Francis Urquhart would say “I couldn’t possibly comment.” Happily, we’re now back up and running. WordPress have made some […]

  • US Mid-Terms: How to cash in on an improving Democrat position

    Note that betting markets have an extraordinarily good record in state races, whether mid-terms or presidential elections. Upsets are extremely rare.

  • How I Became a Pro Gambler – The Political Gambler

    This article first appeared at slman.com in November 2020 I am a completely self-taught gambler. I was 13 when I discovered football coupons. I couldn’t believe it: all you had to do was back Arsenal, Man United and Liverpool to win, and you could get paid out at 14/1 just for that. I discovered them on […]

  • Why We Shouldn’t Overestimate Boris Johnson’s Powers of Recovery

    Berlusconi literally created a party in his own image. Trump usurped one and bent it to his will. They have real political clout, whereas Johnson is more an opportunist in the right place at the right time.

  • 2022 Political Betting Preview

    A shock defeat in Virginia and close shave in New Jersey demonstrated how hard it will be for Democrats to retain their diverse coalition in government, rather than opposition, and without the toxic name of Donald Trump on the ballot.

  • The Six Biggest Betting Heats to Follow in 2022

    My view is Johnson will resign around May, after tax, NI and energy price rises contribute towards a disastrous set of local election results.

  • Boris Johnson Betting: Tory Conference feels a long way off for a PM under siege

    The safest bet is the 2022 option. Why? Because generally after a leader stands down, they stay in post throughout the subsequent leadership contest. That could take three months.

  • Latest Boris Johnson Exit Odds: Is Boris on the Brink?

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 23rd November 2021 Boris Johnson’s bad month goes from worse to terrible and Betfair markets are responding. The Prime Minister is now around evens to no longer be Conservative leader by 2024 and the odds about a 2022 exit are down to [3.45] – equivalent to a 29% […]

  • UK By-Elections Betting: North Shropshire far likelier to produce an upset

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 17th November 2021 Just as British politics gets interesting, as Labour register a series of poll leads for the first time under Keir Starmer’s leadership and Boris Johnson’s position becomes shakier than ever, we have a couple of by-elections. First in Old Bexley and Sidcup on 2 December, […]

  • New markets for the 2024 US Election now live at betonline.ag

    As some readers will already know, one of my roles is now as a betting consultant for betonline.ag. In particular, creating political betting markets and setting the lines. With the November elections over, we’ve begun to expand our lines for the 2024 US Presidential Election. In addition to the winner and nominees for the respective […]

  • Interview with Trademate Sports

    Here’s a wide-ranging interview that I enjoyed from earlier this year, with Alex Vella of Trademate Sports, discussing my career, and political betting in depth. It was a good intro to who I am, how I work and built my career as a professional gambler and subsequently, political betting analyst and consultant. We also discuss […]

  • Is Boris Johnson Destroying the Conservative Party As We Know It?

    I do believe that perpetual crisis is upon us, and find it hard to believe it won’t affect those Tory voters. They are overwhelmingly elderly and therefore on fixed incomes. Tory policies kicking the poor, or students, don’t directly affect them. Inflation, especially energy prices and council tax, will.

  • German Election Betting: Try this trio of betting angles

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 23rd September 2021 Germany goes to the polls on Sunday, for what looks set to be their most dramatic election for 16 years. Why? Simply, the Angela Merkel era is coming to an end after 16 years and, given her popularity, that has meant a re-alignment of voters. […]

  • German Election Betting Guide: Bets advised on vote share and next government

    This article first appeared at casino.org on 20th September 2021 The most significant national election of 2021 takes place next weekend, as Europe’s biggest economy goes to the polls. It has already been an extremely dramatic betting heat. Merkel Retirement Is Proving Transformative Chancellor Angela Merkel is retiring after 16 years at the helm, leaving something of […]

  • The multiple reasons why Boris Johnson will be gone by 2024

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 15th September 2021 Back in July, I added a new position to an ever expanding portfolio regarding Boris Johnson’s exit date. This was prior to all manner of drama. Afghanistan chaos. Tax rises. Labour’s first poll lead of 2021. To my great surprise, the betting has barely moved. […]

  • Will Joe Biden complete his term, run again or if not, which Democrat might?

    This article first appeared at casino.org on Monday 13th September, 2021 In my previous article, I explained how US political betting remains dominated by Donald Trump, his family, and their next moves. Following a tumultuous month, his successor is giving him a run for his money. Perhaps the only similarity between the two men is that, […]

  • How long has Starmer’s sinking leadership left to run?

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair on 9th June 2021 It is often said that Leader of the Opposition is the worst job in politics, as Keir Starmer is rapidly discovering. Not only are Labour way behind in national polls but their leader’s approval ratings are on the floor. Check these latest numbers from Ipsos-Mori. […]

  • Batley and Spen By-Election: Labour set to lose another brick in their crumbling Red Wall

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th June 2021 At the last English by-election, Boris Johnson’s Conservatives won the Hartlepool constituency for the first time. A stunning result that defied history and laid stark the demographic trends that now explain our politics. A fortnight today, the Tories are rated 94% likely to defend Chesham […]

  • What next for the Trumps and how to bet on it.

    This article first appeared at casino.org on June 11th 2021 Compared to the record-breaking events of last year, 2021 has been relatively quiet on the US political betting front. Some calm after the storm and a chance for everyone to catch a breath. With Donald Trump expected to return to the campaign trail any day […]

  • Chesham and Amersham By-Election: Split opposition means little threat to Tories

    Chesham and Amersham…is a seat the Tories have never lost and never achieved less than 50% of the vote.

  • Local Elections Review: Starmer may be toast but Tories aren’t so dominant

    This article first appeared on 12th May 2021 at betting.betfair.com Early Friday morning, I received a text from a friend. “Oh Dear. Labour have died.” At that stage, their catastrophic defeat in the Hartlepool by-election was the only story in town. 24 hours later, after various Mayoral gains, improvements and their best result in Wales […]

  • French Election Betting: Macron is no certainty

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair on April 13th 2021 One year today, the world will be digesting the first round results of the French Presidential Election and preparing for the decisive, two-way run-off. If the current projections prove accurate, we are set for another divisive culture war with enormous implications. I expect Macron v […]

  • Could the Jennifer Arcuri scandal bring down Boris Johnson?

    “The Covid contracts scandal simply hasn’t cut through or moved the needle. The opposition’s best hope is that something else will, and start an avalanche.”

  • Predictions of Labour Demise May Again Prove Premature

    This is one of the so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats that Labour held amid their 2019 disaster, and therefore more indicative of the national picture than London or Scotland. Defeat would be catastrophic for Keir Starmer.

  • Scottish Elections: Have the SNP and demand for independence peaked?

    A quite remarkable 61% of Scots think Sturgeon should resign if found to have broken the Ministerial Code. That includes 40% of SNP supporters.

  • Is Rishi Sunak the next Prime Minister or a dodgy early favourite?

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 9th March British politics remains completely dominated by the Conservative Party. After a decade in office, increasing their vote share with each election, they continually trounce Labour in the polls. This may not therefore seem like an obvious time to be discussing a change of leadership. Boris Johnson […]

  • London Mayoral Election: Is Sadiq Khan a certainty?

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 1st March We daren’t use the word ‘certainty’ lightly in politics nowadays but the Betfair market signals pretty much imply that is the case in the race for Next London Mayor. Sadiq Khan is up for re-election in May and is rated 96% likely at odds of just […]

  • Will Trump run in 2024 and if not, who will for the GOP?

    Trump does not intend to leave politics quietly and it will remain difficult for rival Republicans to be heard above him, take different positions or risk his wrath.

  • 2024 US Election: Ratings for the top-ten listed candidates

    Previously Trump quite brilliantly managed to divert from his wrongdoings, using an easily gamed media, his Twitter bully pulpit and later the office of the presidency. All that has gone.

  • US Election 2024: Harris good value as early favourite

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 29th January The latest renewal of the marathon now firmly established as the biggest market in betting, record-breaking for two cycles running, is underway. Already, £37,000 has been matched on the race to be Next President, in 2024. Goodness knows what drama will materialise over the next 45 […]

  • Trump Impeachment: Senate hugely unlikely to convict

    When the House voted to impeach, a paltry ten Republicans supported it…Congressmen felt too intimidated to speak out.

  • Will Latest Trump Tape Swing The Georgia Senate Run-offs?

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th January 2001 During his five and a half year in politics, even the most committed Trump-watchers lost count of the number of shocking moments, incidents, revelations that would have destroyed anybody else’s career. He survived the Access Hollywood tapes, the Mueller investigation, impeachment, the Woodward tapes. It […]

  • US Election Review – Result vindicates the betting signals

    As regular readers will have noted, its been a few months since my last post. This was due to working non-stop during the US election run-in and a long overdue break once it became clear Biden had won. I wrote dozens of articles and contributed to numerous podcasts during that period for a wide variety […]

  • Five Tips For Aspiring Professional or Semi-Pro Gamblers

    This article first appeared here at casinovalley.ca on 11th September 2020 1: Plan a Tight Work Schedule Genuinely professional gamblers are rare, but my experience proves it is possible. Many more have the expertise to consistently make a profit but prefer to keep their gambling as a side income to their main job. That was […]

  • Five Reasons Why Comparisons Between Biden And Clinton Don’t Stack Up

    A critical difference with 2016 is undecideds or third parties. Their figure amounts to just 6.5% compared to 19% at this stage.

  • Avoid the Monster Trump Gamble – The Fundamental Numbers Haven’t Changed

    To win again, there is no margin for error. Actually Trump needs to improve on that performance, amid less favourable conditions.

  • Where can we find reliable information on the US Election?

    If the last election is any sort of guide, there will be moments, spells, of high drama. We will be bombarded by competing narratives and the truth may initially be elusive.

  • Polls dismiss Trump’s comeback narrative but will the market react?

    “Most significantly, the state that has seen the worst violence in recent days shows no sign of turning towards Trump. On the day the President made his controversial visit to Wisconsin, respective surveys from Fox News (A-) and Morning Consult (B/C) recorded Biden 8% and 10%.”

  • US Election: Will protests and violence help Trump?

    “One of several plausible explanations for this monster gamble is the violence in Kenosha and Portland.”

  • US Election: Trump ends convention season on a betting high

    “Both previous incumbents to enjoy a ‘double convention bounce’ went on to win – George W Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2012.”

  • US Election: Four takeaways from the Democrat Convention

    “One profound difference with 2016 was the unity. Four years ago the DNC proceedings began with disaster. Leaks from a Russian hack were released to great online fanfare, revealing the party establishment’s preference and bias towards Clinton over Bernie Sanders.”

  • US Election: Kamala Harris is a risk that could backfire on Biden

    Anyone labouring under the illusion that this will be an easy ride, in which her qualities are celebrated, the rationale of her arguments win out, that her character and reputation won’t be torn to shreds, has never watched a US election.

  • Why Do The Election Odds Differ From Polls? Eight Explanations

    “US elections are incredibly dramatic affairs. Scandal and smear campaigns are guaranteed.”

  • Democrat Convention: Biden’s Big Tent is Very Smart Strategy

    “I’m particularly struck by Kasich’s support, as it is coming from a frontline politician. A former Governor of a bellwether state – Ohio.”

  • US Election: Trump v Biden Betting Update

    “In a more conventional two-horse race than 2016, Trump needs extra voters. There is nothing in the numbers to suggest he suddenly wins over opponents who strongly disapprove in record numbers, consistently.”

  • Electoral College Betting: Biden Is On Course For A Landslide

    These maths are precisely why it pays to keep up with the state-by-state picture, and to understand the relation to the outright odds.

  • Democrat VP Betting: Can we trust the Kamala gamble?

    This really has been a cracking market, packed with uncertainty and betting drama.

  • Why Re-fighting the Last Election Rarely Makes Sense

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 29th July 2020 Nate Silver has some rather unflattering comments to make about the rationale of betting markets. No doubt the Fivethirtyeight pundit is responding to the sustained mis-match between the 2020 odds and polling models. Current Betfair odds imply a 62% chance of victory for Joe Biden. […]

  • How previous presidential elections panned out during the final 100 days

    2012 was the direct opposite of 2016. Indeed it goes a long way towards explaining why there was such confidence in Clinton’s poll lead four years later.

  • Democrats On Course For A Big Win – Here’s Four Ways To Cash In

    On the question of this election – a referendum on Trump – I reckon this polarised electorate splits 55-45 against. Numerous polls – including at times when he was faring better nationally – showed around this figure committed to voting against him and even, during the impeachment process, to be removed from office.

  • Who should, and who will, be Joe Biden’s VP pick?

    Susan Rice would cement the Biden ticket’s brand as a return to the normality of that relatively popular administration, and is experienced enough to assume the top job.

  • How Bad, And What Are The Implications Of Trump’s Legal Troubles?

    The situation regarding New York is not crystal clear. These Trump investigations are well developed – delayed for a year by these legal challenges – and both Deutsche Bank and Mazars immediately confirmed they would comply.

  • Six Reasons Why The 2020 Election Will Be Nothing Like 2016

    This article first appeared at gamblerspick.com on 7th July 2020 Exactly 17 weeks today, US voters head to the polls for what appears, right now, to be their most one-sided election of the 21st century. The Economist/Yougov rate Joe Biden 90% likely to win, compared to a meagre 10% for Donald Trump. Betting signals, however, […]

  • Mike Pence Won’t Be The Last Outsider Gamble of 2020

    This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 29th June 2020 Two months ago, the Betfair odds implied there was a 10% chance that the Next President would be somebody other than Donald Trump or Joe Biden. Despite no challenge materialising to either and the latter securing a majority of delegates to become the presumptive Democrat […]

  • Next Tory Leader: Who Will Succeed Boris Johnson?

    “Johnson’s approval ratings have fallen along with the government’s, regarding management of the crisis. Whereas he owed his job to being an undeniable electoral asset for the Tories, he could soon be a liability.”

  • Biden Moves Clearly Ahead Across All Indicators

    There are, of course, more than four months until polling day, for Trump to turn things around. As we are constantly reminded, remember what happened in 2016. Biden, however, is considerably further ahead – by around 5% – in the polls than Clinton was at this stage.

  • An Avalance of Scandal Could Bury Trump

    Trump is in very serious trouble…Both he and down-ballot Republicans are staring at catastrophic defeat.

  • Is Boris Johnson’s Premiership On Borrowed Time?

    “More significant are the criticisms personal to Johnson, emanating from friends, rather than enemies.”

  • Trump toxicity could see Republicans Swept away By Another Blue Wave

    “November’s elections will be a referendum on him and if so, his dire ratings should deeply alarm Republicans.”

  • Extensive Interview on the 2020 US Election With Betfair Australia

    “Part 4 goes deep on the 2020 Election. Why I’m backing Biden and in which states he is particularly fancied”.

  • Democrat VP Update: Val Demings is Biden’s Perfect Running Mate

    “The case for Val Demings is impeccable. A working-class black woman, who rose to become Orlando police chief – in the most important swing state of Florida.”

  • Trump’s Authoritarianism and Divisive Tactics Are a Gift to Biden

    “Voters are deeply unimpressed by Trump’s leadership and management of the twin crises sweeping America. According to ABC/Ipsos, 66% disapprove of how he is handling the Floyd protests and 60% of coronavirus.”

  • Betfair Masterclass Series Part 2: Tips and Strategies to Bet on Politics

    The history of leadership contests is littered with bad early favourites. A classic mistake is to overstate the importance of early polls. When members or supporters are first asked, name recognition will be uneven.

  • Joe Biden surges to odds-on favouritism

    “The significance of these numbers is that Trump is losing his own, normally loyal, supporters. As I’ve argued constantly since 2016, to win again he needs to win new voters – an extremely tall order given record strong disapprovals.”

  • Betfair Masterclass Series: How to Predict Elections

    “The best way to win on elections is good old-fashioned hard work and research in order to understand the particular dynamics of each race. Each election is unique”

  • Will the Dominic Cummings scandal ruin Boris Johnson and the Tories?

    Even the least political of newspapers can’t get enough of the story and the latest polls are frankly disastrous for the Tories and Boris Johnson.

  • Polls Make Grim Reading For Trump and Republicans

    The trends we are seeing now are not merely driven by the recent effect of coronavirus but are long-term. They reflect what appears to be a marked shift away from the Republicans since Trump took office.

  • Five Narratives That Could Determine the Election

    This article first appeared at gamblerspick.com on 19th May 2020 Both the polls and betting odds are remarkably stable. According to the Betfair Exchange, Donald Trump has a 48% chance of re-election at odds of 2.06, compared to 42% for Joe Biden at 2.38.  Meanwhile, the constant swirl of rumour and conspiracy surrounding both major […]

  • Will Trump’s Scandals Finally Catch Up With Him?

    If the Supreme Court rules against him, Trump will likely have to release several years of tax returns and loan agreements with Deutsche Bank…This is arguably the riskiest moment of his entire career.

  • Trump Needs a Strong Third Party Challenge But Will He Get It?

    There are no polling signals to suggest Trump will improve on his 46.1% vote share. In an extensive recent interview for The Political Trade podcast, former Bill Clinton advisor James Carville booked Trump’s share in November at 44.5%.

  • The Electoral Map Looks Bad For Trump – Here’s How To Play It

    “Six months out from polling day, the picture for the incumbent is not promising.”

  • Democrat VP Betting – My Latest Top-Ten Rankings

    “A young, pragmatic female Governor taking on Trump could be of great assistance to the ageing former VP and Whitmer will play well in the Mid-West.”

  • US Election: If not Trump versus Biden, then whom?

    “This cycle has been rife with rumours of a Democrat fix for months. That a brokered convention would result in the DNC imposing somebody who hadn’t even entered the primaries.”

  • Extensive Interview For “The Political Trade” Podcast

    Earlier this week, I enjoyed a long conversation with Jeff Joseph and Mike Reddy for “The Political Trade” – the podcast associated with Luckbox magazine. Our wide-ranging discussion involved the development and wider trends within political betting, as well of course as extensive analysis of the 2020 election. It was truly an honour to be […]

  • Starmer Thrives at PMQs But Does it Matter?

    “So far as the commentariat were concerned, the new Labour leader made a big impact.”

  • US Election: Four worrying signals for Donald Trump

    “What is clear is that picking fights with state governors such as Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer is counter to majority opinion in individual states. So too the anti-lockdown protests from his supporters.”

  • Who Should We Follow in 2020 – Polls or Betting Markets?

    “We are still around two hundred days out so plenty can change. However right now, there is a vast disparity between what the polls imply and the weight of money in betting markets.”

  • Democrat VP Betting: Which woman will Biden pick?

    This article first appeared on 10th April 2020 at betting.betfair.com Now Bernie Sanders has suspended his presidential campaign, the way is clear for Joe Biden to secure the Democratic Nomination. The former VP is now rated a [1.1] chance to be his party’s candidate. If you’re wondering why he’s even that high, that can only […]

  • Will Keir Starmer turn Labour’s fortunes around?

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th April 2020 Sir Keir Starmer has been confirmed as the new Labour leader and Angela Rayner will be his deputy. Their victories were resounding. Starmer won in the first round of the party’s AV system with 56.2%. Rayner won 41.7% in the first round and passed the […]

  • Will coronavirus or other indicators determine the 2020 Election?

    This article first appeared at casino.org on 3rd April 2020 At every election, various theories are put forward about which indicators will determine the result. Most famously, “It’s the economy, stupid”. Or does success or failure in foreign policy move the needle? Is it all about ad-buying, media coverage, or simply the electoral appeal of […]

  • Cuomo gamble is merely the latest speculative punt without substance

    Normally at this stage of a US Presidential cycle, we would be fully focused on a head-to-head race between the presumptive Republican and Democrat nominees. The former blocked primary challenges to ensure Donald Trump had a clear run. The latter’s primary remains ongoing but the scorecard overwhelmingly favours Joe Biden. The betting signal, however, less […]

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    Winner Casino was established in 2009 and has amassed a large membership of players. Its motto is “Whatever your game, be a Winner!”. Their game selection and fantastic promotional offers are sure to impress you. The Winners Casino is one of the most popular choices for both new and long-time players. Everyone can find something […]

  • Next Tory Leader – Should we get behind the Sunak gamble?

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 27th March 2020 It should by now go without saying – politics moves fast. Can anyone recall, anywhere, a reputation growing faster than Rishi Sunak? Six months ago, the 39 year-old MP for Richmond was barely known. When Boris Johnson opted out of a ‘Leaders Debate’ during the […]

  • How Political Betting Went Global During the Trump Era

    The US Election is a huge betting market, lasting well over a year. With sports canceled amid the coronavirus, the 2020 Presidental Election may well be the biggest single betting event of the year. To many Americans, November’s general election feels like one of the most critical moments in the history of the Republic. The […]

  • Does Coronavirus help or hinder Donald Trump?

    As the world begins to come to terms with the shock of Coronavirus, every assumption, every preconception, has to go. That is already evidently the case with regards economics, work and productivity. So it must too with politics. It means that even I – the archest of Trump critics, somebody whom his supporters call a […]

  • US Election: Long-term indicators point to Biden for President

    This article first appeared at Betfair Australia’s The Hub on 20th March 2020 Since I last analysed the race for Next President – before the primaries began – events have somewhat transformed the context and the betting has swung wildly. Last autumn, I was betting on Donald Trump to be impeached by the House of […]

  • US Election: Biden will pick a woman but beware the Clinton hype

    This piece first appeared at gamblerspick.com on Monday 17th March 2020 A fortnight ago, we discussed how the race to be the Democrat nominee in November’s US General Election was developing ahead of the biggest single day of primary season, into a straight choice between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden – as the latter was rapidly hoovering […]

  • Will Coronavirus derail Trump’s re-election bid?

    Sport may be cancelled but politics carries on as usual. In fact coronavirus is generating even greater focus on the 2020 US Presidential Election. Betfair markets souring on Trump re-election Over the past fortnight, the odds about Donald Trump winning a second term have drifted markedly. From a low of [1.64], equivalent to a 61% […]

  • US Election – Who will be Joe Biden’s VP Pick?

    This article first appeared at Betfair Australia’s The Hub, on 13th March 2020 Following another slew of victories for Joe Biden on Super Tuesday 2, the Democrat Nomination looks all but finished as a betting heat. The former Vice President is now a mere $1.09 for the nomination and $2.28 for the presidency. Bernie Sanders […]

  • US Election: Biden dominant as Democrats reject divisive Bernie Bros tactics

    At the risk of offending Tulsi Gabbard’s slither of support, the Democrat Nomination now appears to be a two-horse race. Within a few days, it could be over. Delegate lead exceeds Biden expectations On Super Tuesday, Joe Biden exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. He leads Bernie Sanders on the delegate count – something that […]

  • Where do the Democrats stand after Super Tuesday?

    This piece was first published on 9th March 2020 at Betfair Australia’s The Hub HOW DID THE ODDS SWING SO MUCH? Perhaps the most famous saying in British politics is that “A week is a long time in politics”. Rarely has such a phrase been more apt with regards a US Election. Previously, I observed […]

  • Super Tuesday and Democrat Nomination Betting and Analysis

    This article first appeared on 3rd March 2020 at betting.betfair.com The eve of the biggest date of primary season could barely have been more dramatic, both in terms of events and their effect on Betfair markets. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have both withdrawn and endorsed Joe Biden. Biden the new favourite after day of […]

  • South Carolina Primary: Biden poised to unite the anti-Sanders vote

    This piece was first published on Saturday 29th February 2020 at betting.betfair.com This year is the third time that Joe Biden has run for the presidency. If the signals on Betfair for tonight’s South Carolina Primary are correct, he is about to finally win a race. Biden expected to land big win in SC The […]

  • SC debate could be the last chance to stop Bernie Sanders

    Ahead of the busiest, and invariably decisive spell of primary season, the importance of Tuesday’s Democrat debate from South Carolina cannot be overstated. Following his resounding, poll-beating victory in Nevada, Bernie Sanders is even money favourite to win the nomination. This won’t be the final debate but may very well be the last chance for […]

  • Democrat Nomination: Where do we stand after Nevada?

    This article first appeared at The Hub, on Tuesday 25th February WHAT HISTORY TELLS US Having constantly noted the parallels between the 2016 Republican Primary and the 2020 Democrat race now seems a good time to compare the state of play. Donald Trump lost Iowa, won New Hampshire, before a thumping victory in Nevada confirmed […]

  • Trump’s path to victory is opening – a Democrat civil war

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 17th February 2020 Long-term readers may be shocked. After five years covering the Trump beat with incessant negativity, only pausing briefly to cut my losses on THAT night in 2016, I’m coming around to the idea that the nightmare may not end in November. There is a way […]

  • Democrat Nominee: Where do we stand after New Hampshire?

    When writing last week’s analysis, five Democrat candidates were trading lower than $100 for the presidency. There are still five but we’ve had a swap – Amy Klobuchar’s odds have crashed to $80 from around $270, while Elizabeth Warren is out to $200. From odds-on favourite in October, she’s now dismissed at $140 to win […]

  • New Hampshire Primary Betting – Sanders winning but watch out for Klobuchar surge

    Of 3979 delegates up for grabs during the Democrat nomination process, a mere 41 were decided in Iowa. Once again though, the ‘Hawkeye State’ demonstrated the importance of going first in primary season as events in that chaotic race have reshaped the narrative and left several campaigns on life support. Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary could […]

  • Democrat Nominee Betting and Analysis – Where do we stand post-Iowa?

    BERNIE SANDERS Nomination $2.62 Presidency: $6.2 Although Sanders didn’t have the clear victory that the betting projected in Iowa, he definitely emerges as the front-runner. He’s trading below $1.20 and $1.50 to win the next races in New Hampshire and Nevada respectively. If he delivers in both, he would surely be heavily odds-on for the […]

  • Post-Iowa, what is at stake in New Hampshire debates?

    This piece was first published on February 6th at betting.betfair.com Its happened again. One race into the 2020 US Election and the betting carnage is underway. With 97% reporting from the Iowa Caucus, just 0.1% separates Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders in terms of delegates. Iowa produces another massive betting flip-flop The former was matched […]

  • Iowa Caucuses – Bernie Sanders starts ahead but can we trust the polls?

    The 2020 US Election starts tonight, with the Iowa Caucuses. As always, Betfair markets will stay open throughout the counting process until a winner (most delegates) is declared. It could well be a very long night! Polls contain huge margin of error Polling signals are far from clear. The psephological and political betting communities were […]

  • Democrat Presidential Primaries 2020 – An Overview

    What are primaries and how do they work? Presidential primaries are the electoral process to determine the candidates representing the main parties. Starting on February 3 and lasting several months, registered Democrats and would-be supporters in each state will vote for their preferred candidate. The winners and prominent performers in each race are duly awarded […]

  • Iowa Caucus Betting Preview and Analysis

    This article first appeared at gambling.com on January 29th, 2020 Less than one week out from the Iowa Caucuses – the traditional curtain raiser of primary season – Bernie Sanders is all the rage. He’s into a best-priced 7/4 with Unibet for the Democratic nomination and 9/2 with Coral to become the Next President. Sanders Odds-On For Each Of First Three […]

  • Trump’s odds for 2020 are more wrong than ever

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on January 23rd, 2020 America is watching the impeachment trial of Donald Trump but there is no signal whatsoever from Betfair markets that the process is damaging his chances of re-election. No long-term reader of mine will be surprised to learn that I disagree. Trump odds-on for re-election despite […]

  • 2020 US Election – Bernie Sanders gaining market momentum

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 12th January With primary season less than a month away, the 2020 US Election is underway in earnest, There have of course been numerous Democrat debates already but none carries anything like the importance of Tuesday’s six-way debate in Iowa, which will host the opening caucuses on February […]

  • Next Labour Leader – History tells us to beware early signals

    The Labour leadership contest has a clear front-runner. Keir Starmer isn’t the first to trade at odds-on to succeed Jeremy Corbyn – Rebecca Long Bailey did so before Christmas, as did Owen Smith back in 2016. However the former Director of Public Prosecutions is the first to hold this position in the betting based on […]

  • Next Labour Leader Candidates – Strengths and Weaknesses

    Rebecca Long Bailey has key backing from the Left POSITIVE: During Jeremy Corbyn’s four years as Labour leader, the Left of the party assumed control of much of the internal machinery – the National Executive Committee, for instance – prompting a narrative that his allies are now in total control. If that is so, Rebecca […]

  • How the Commentariat Underestimated Boris Johnson

    What a difference a few months can make in politics. When Boris Johnson became Tory leader back in July, bookies were taking bets on him being the shortest-lived PM in history. Even 2020 seemed a long way off. Having secured the biggest Tory majority since Margaret Thatcher, it’s now plausible he could become the longest serving. […]

  • Four takeaways from the UK General Election

    This article first appeared on 16th December, for betting.betfair.com The Exit Poll emerges triumphant but is imperfect This may sound strange, having spent the last six weeks totally immersed in it, but this was quite a boring election. At least from a betting perspective. Once the Tories opened up an early lead, victory never looked […]

  • Next Labour Leader – Who will succeed Corbyn?

    This article first appeared on December 13th at gambling.com The post-mortem began less than a minute after 10pm last night, when the exit poll accurately predicted Labour’s worst result since 1935. Jeremy Corbyn has confirmed he won’t lead Labour into another election but, frustratingly for the 6/1 bet advised in January on all three party leaders […]

  • UK General Election – Final Predictions

    At this stage of the last general election, we pundits were in unanimous agreement that Theresa May would win a majority. My predictions were very much at the lower end of those estimates yet still proved miles off, as Labour pulled off one of the most remarkable upsets in the history of political betting. Don’t […]

  • UK General Election Analysis

    This piece was first published on Tuesday 10th December for gambling.com In previewing this general election over several months, I’ve put up two positions available on the political betting sites – Conservatives to win most seats at 4-5, No Overall Majority at 4-6. According to the betting, the first is nailed on at 1-20 with BetVictor, with the […]

  • How will the Liberal Democrats fare?

    If I could take back one recent prediction, it regards Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems. When this campaign started, I thought they would benefit from extra exposure, particularly for their Revoke stance on Brexit – divisive for sure, but clearer than Labour’s muddled offering. 20-25% seemed realistic. As it transpires, the Lib Dem in the last […]

  • UK General Election – How will Labour fare?

    This article first appeared at gambling.com on 3rd December. With a fortnight of campaigning left, there’s no doubt Labour are in a very bad place. On current estimates derived from YouGov’s MRP model, they will lose 51 seats, handing the Tories a majority of 68. As always in political betting on elections, remember to treat such projections […]

  • UK General Election: How will the Conservatives fare?

    This article first appeared at gambling.com on November 27th 2019 There are numerous ways to get involved in political betting in an election, covering just about every angle of each party’s performance. But what is the best way to bet on a party you expect to go well? Take the example of the front-runners in the polls. […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 10: Ten targets that would propel SNP to 2015 heights

    Ochil and South Perthshire Click here for latest live odds This is another constituency that voted for different parties in the last three general elections – the Tories came from third last time, aided by the Labour vote falling 8%. This share probably correlates with Unionist fears of independence and a 40% Leave vote. The […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 9 – How many of these top-ten SNP targets will fall?

    Stirling Click here for latest live odds Stirling voted for different parties in each of the last three elections and was a particularly impressive gain for the Tories in 2017, who were buoyant at that time under Ruth Davidson. However with the latest Scottish poll projecting 5% swing from CON-SNP since 2017, the 158 Tory […]

  • How to bet on the 2019 UK General Election

    Back in March, I recommended a bet on the UK holding a General Election in 2019 at odds of +176 (7/4). That bet went to the wire before ultimately winning – the election will be held in less than two weeks, on December 12. As always it is a huge betting heat, involving hundreds of different markets. […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 8

    Southampton Itchen Click here for latest live odds Buoyed no doubt by a third of the constituency being aged 18-34, Labour came within 331 votes of an upset here in 2017. While polls show significant national swing against them since, gaining it is not beyond them, especially if the rise in youth registration translates into […]

  • UK General Election: Overview and betting strategy

    This article first appeared at The Hub, on Monday 25th November Last month, I explained how the United Kingdom’s Brexit impasse had prompted a General Election, scheduled for 12th December. Now, halfway through the campaign, let’s consider the hundreds of markets available on Betfair. All signals point towards a thumping Conservative win. They are between […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 7

    Bristol North West Click here for latest live odds This constituency should act as a warning to those predicting huge Tory majorities. It is Labour’s 41st most vulnerable to a Tory takeover but they should have high hopes of retaining it even on a terrible night. 26% of the population are under 35 and the […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 6: Tories will be eyeing these ten Labour targets

    Reading East Click here for latest live odds This was another massive upset in 2017 as Labour enjoyed a 10% swing from the Tories to regain a seat lost in 2005, despite winning nationally. That turnaround speaks volumes about how party affiliation has changed and in this 62% Remain seat, Brexit certainly appears to have […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 5: Gain these ten Labour seats and a Tory majority is on

    Derby North Click here for latest live odds While Derby North is down in 21st place among their Labour-held targets, the Tories will be very confident of victory now that Chris Williamson is standing as an Independent. The controversial left-wing Labour MP – suspended following his response to the party’s anti-semitism crisis – is bound […]

  • UK General Election: Seven Exciting Constituency Betting Heats

    Gambling.com  »  Online Betting  »  Strategy This article first appeared at gambling.com on November 15th. In light of the stalling Lib Dem campaign, I’m less inclined to back them in Portsmouth South now, although I haven’t given up. To understand why this is the most unpredictable general election in living memory, check out the constituency betting. Literally hundreds could […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 4: CON-held Lib Dem targets ranked 11-20

    This piece was first published on 19th November 2019 Cornwall North Click here for latest live odds Although relatively high on the Lib Dem target list, this is another Cornwall seat that will be very hard to pick up. The constituency voted 60% in favour of Leave in 2016 and the Tory majority is more […]

  • How long can Donald Trump survive?

    This article first appeared on 21st November 2019 at www.casino.org Four years analysing the betting around Donald Trump has frequently involved speculating whether, how and when this incredible story will end. My last update predicted a terrible autumn for the President, beset by multiple investigations, resulting in impeachment by the House of Representatives. As we watch […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Betting Part 3: Ten Labour seats in realistic range for the Tories

    Peterborough Click here for latest live odds Peterborough is precisely the sort of seat where Tories are right to worry about the presence of Brexit Party, whose 29% in a by-election earlier this year was mostly achieved at Tory expense. While that enabled Labour to hold the seat despite their previous MP going to prison […]

  • General Election Constituency Guide Part 2: The ten most vulnerable Labour seats to a Tory advance

    Kensington Click here for latest live odds Scene of a famous upset in 2017, Kensington is one of the most exciting seats of this election. Labour’s majority is a miniscule 20 but the Tories are by no means certain to win, despite their improved national position. Former Tory minister Sam Gwimah – who quit over […]

  • General Election Constituency Guide Part 1: Ten Tory seats that could fall to the Lib Dems

    Richmond Park Click here for latest live odds Considering the Lib Dems are polling at twice the total they achieved in 2017, failure to win this top target would be catastrophic. Richmond Park is a wealthy constituency on the edges of West London that voted by 71/29 for Remain in 2016. It has transferred between […]

  • Donald Trump Impeachment Betting – Is the end in sight as TV hearings begin?

    Political junkies may recall the day of the last general election as a bizarre marathon, which involved watching hours of sacked FBI chief James Comey giving testimony to Congress, before settling down to an all-nighter watching the dramatic UK results come in. In a further twist that perfectly encapsulates our time, events in the USA […]

  • UK General Election Betting – Too early to assume Farage has landed a decisive blow

    The last five years of madness have seen one political betting upset after another. One month out from the election, outsider backers have another to consider. The Conservatives are available to lay at just [1.07] to win Most Seats. Labour are 18.0 to back. The reasons are obvious. They’re double-digits behind in the polls and, […]

  • Why this is the most exciting and unpredictable General Election ever

    This article was first published on Thursday 6th November for betting.betfair.com. If the first day is any sort of guide, we are set for another extraordinary election campaign, packed with drama and uncertainty. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives may appear – according to the polls – to be storming towards another term and perhaps a majority, but […]

  • UK General Election: Seven known unknowns heading into the campaign

    This article first appeared on 4th November 2019, at betting.betfair.com Everything about the Brexit Party The idea of a formal pact between the Tories and Brexit Party looks doomed after the latter confirmed their intention to fight every constituency. It remains to be seen whether an informal pact, where they target Labour-held Leave seats that […]

  • General Election Preview – Boris poised to batter split opposition

    This article first appeared at gambling.com on 2nd November 2019. Whilst the analysis still applies, I must update developments. I’ve added the following two bets which counter-act the No Overall Majority position. (In a dream scenario, both the Tory seats bet and No Overall Majority could win!) Also, the Brexit Party are set to run […]

  • A December general election could mark the demise of Remainer resistance

    This article first appeared yesterday, 29th October 2019, at betting.betfair.com The speculation is all but over – there will be a general election in December. The exact date will be confirmed this afternoon. A market that has seen various different months and years trade at odds-on throughout this chaotic Brexit process is finally all but […]

  • Brexit betting – Is Boris Johnson’s plan about to hit a wall?

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 21st October 2019 In keeping with the general rule of Brexit, the facts changed whilst writing my last piece on Friday. The Letwin Amendment duly obliterated the government’s plan for a straight vote on their Brexit deal and consequently, ‘Super Saturday’ didn’t quite live up to its billing. […]

  • Latest Donald Trump Impeachment Odds and Analysis

    This article was first published for Betfair Australia’s “The Hub” on 11th October 2019 With just over a year until the 2020 election, Donald Trump is in turmoil. Since Nancy Pelosi announced an impeachment inquiry, the President has been beset by even more scandal than usual. His chance of re-election is falling, from 50% to […]

  • Why its time to bet against Brexit

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on Thursday 10th October. If we believe the media speculation, I may have underestimated a chance of Boris Johnson securing a Brexit deal. Nevertheless, even a deal would in my view only get through parliament now if a confirmatory referendum is attached. That eventuality lies behind the recommended bet […]

  • Brexit Latest – The Imminent Election is Anything But Predictable

    The pretence is already over. Less than a week after Boris Johnson unveiled his new plan for a Brexit deal, it is in tatters. In line with the strategy discussed many times in recent months, the British government and the EU are at loggerheads. .@BorisJohnson, what’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. […]

  • Brexit Latest – If you want to back Brexit, back No Deal

    At last, four weeks from the Brexit Date, we know what Boris Johnson considers to be a good withdrawal deal. The task now for the EU, media, parliamentarians and punters, is to decide whether it has any realistic chance of success. The PM laid out his plan to the Tory party conference yesterday, hours after […]

  • How Margaret Beckett could become Prime Minister

    This piece first appeared at gambling.com on 1st October 2019. The past week in UK politics may have been more divisive and depressing than ever but at least there is one consolation. Almost every hour brings another twist to an ever-increasing array of political betting opportunities. The end of this particular parliament is imminent, but few can […]

  • Donald Trump Impeachment Betting – Impeachment by the House now odds-on

    This article first appeared on 25th September 2019 at betting.betfair.com After months, even years of speculation, Democrats have stepped up. Speaker Nancy Pelosi confirmed last night that the House of Representatives will begin a formal impeachment investigation into Donald Trump. The times have found us. The actions taken to date by the President have seriously […]

  • Brexit Latest – What next after Supreme Court strikes down prorogation?

    The Supreme Court has delivered its unanimous judgement – Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament was unlawful. Betfair markets reacted instantly with the PM backed briefly at odds-on to cease to be Conservative Leader this year and a 2019 General Election is now rated 70% likely at odds of 1.42. To be clear though, nobody can […]

  • Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?

    A core lesson of recent times is to never take political trends and outcomes for granted. To consider counter-intuitive arguments before betting on what appears to be obvious. For example, seven weeks before the 2017 general election, there was much talk about the end of the Labour Party. They lagged 20% behind in the polls, […]

  • Will Boris Johnson Break The Law Or Is He Bluffing?

    This article was first published on 9th September 2019, for betting.betfair.com There is nothing original in noting the similarities between Donald Trump and Boris Johnson and another can be found in the betting. Even before Trump’s inauguration, large bets were placed below odds of 4.0 about him failing to survive that first year. 2019 is […]

  • Next UK General Election – Latest Thoughts

    We still don’t know precisely when, but a UK General Election is imminent. William Hill offer a best price of 10/11 about it taking place in October, whereas Paddy Power are best at 15/8 about a November election. That small difference in the date is extremely significant. Indeed, punting on the result before we know the date is fraught […]

  • Is an October General Election Inevitable?

    This article was first published on 3rd September at betting.betfair.com After yet another extraordinary, dramatic day in UK politics, few if any observers are any clearer. Quelle surprise. Protesters almost drown out Johnson speech An October General Election – tipped here last week at 4.6 – crashed into 1.25 after it was announced Boris Johnson […]

  • Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?

    This article first appeared on 30th August at casino.org Among the few sages that predicted Donald Trump’s historic betting upset in 2016 was Professor Allan Lichtman. He also predicted that the new president would be impeached and duly wrote a book laying out the case. He now predicts Trump will win again in 2020 unless the  Democrats […]

  • Brexit Latest – Election odds-on to occur before Brexit

    This piece was first published on 29th August 2019 for betting.betfair.com Having spent all summer on tenterhooks, waiting to learn precisely how Boris Johnson’s government plans to deliver its Brexit promises, British politics finally blew up yesterday and entered a new, highly unpredictable phase. Prorogation exacerbates political divide Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament for five […]

  • 2020 US Election – Could Donald Trump be replaced on the GOP ticket?

    Donald Trump is weakening on Betfair’s 2020 US Election markets. From a low of 1.98 he’s out to 2.24 in the wake of atrocious polls and ever more erratic behaviour. There’s also a minor move against him to be the Republican Nominee, from 1.08 to 1.14. Granted, these are lower odds than the levels I’ve […]

  • Next Conservative Leader Betting – Who will succeed Boris Johnson?

    Some political betting markets never stop. No sooner have we settled a Tory leadership contest and the bookies are betting on who will succeed Boris Johnson. Who knows – with the new PM likely to face a No Confidence vote as soon as parliament emerges from recess, this could be settled within months. That, to be clear, is […]

  • Latest Brexit Betting – Can Anyone Stop No Deal?

    We may have a new PM, Cabinet, fear of national meltdown and much talk of urgency, but the fundamentals of British politics haven’t changed. The clock towards a no deal Brexit is ticking, politicians and journalists are locked in discussion about how to prevent it. A good time to update my scenarios piece from last […]

  • Donald Trump Impeachment Betting and Analysis

    Throughout the last few, relentlessly dramatic years, it has become increasingly clear that most of the British media is hopeless when it comes to covering US politics. Back in March, I immediately urged caution when almost every outlet portrayed Attorney General William Barr’s summary of the Mueller Report as fact – even the final word. […]

  • Who would win a snap general election?

    In the wake of last week’s predicted Brecon and Radnorshire by-election defeat, the Tory majority is reduced to one and a 2019 General Election is all the rage at a best price of just 8/13 with the best political betting sites. Who would win it? Before answering that, we must consider different contexts. One scenario involves […]

  • Next Labour Leader Betting – Who Will Succeed Corbyn?

    In March, I recommended a 6/1 bet on all three main party leaders losing their jobs by the end of the year. Two are gone, leaving Jeremy Corbyn as the final leg. Paddy Power now offer 12/5 (best priced with the best political betting sites) about a 2019 exit for the Labour leader. Labour strategists must be very worried. Corbyn is historically […]

  • Brecon and Radnorshire By Election Preview

    Britain has a new Prime Minister and after Boris Johnson’s radical Cabinet reshuffle, the best political betting sites expect an imminent General Election. At 6/5, only one firm are offering better than evens about an election occurring before the end of 2019. Before that, there is the small matter of the Brecon and Radnorshire By Election – […]

  • Cabinet reshuffle drives big gamble on a 2019 election

    This article first appeared on 25th July 2019, at betting.betfair.com The new Prime Minister Boris Johnson has named his first Cabinet and the signals about how he plans to address the Brexit impasse could hardly have been clearer. The reaction on Betfair was swift, with a 2019 General Election heavily backed, from 2.44 into just […]

  • Boris Johnson Premiership – What Happens Next?

    This article first appeared on 22nd July 2019 at betting.betfair.com Outside of war, it is hard to imagine a worse political crisis to inherit – albeit one that Boris Johnson played a profound part in creating. Three ministers have already resigned rather than sign up to his agenda and dozens more of his MPs are […]

  • 2020 US Election and Democratic Nominee Betting and Analysis

    This article was first published on 17th July, for betting.betfair.com It has been three weeks since the first of the Democrat TV debates, as they search for their nominee for the 2020 US Presidential Election. During that short window, the betting has changed dramatically. Harris now favourite as Biden slips When former Vice President Joe […]

  • Next Conservative Leader Betting – The top-ten candidates

    Will Boris Johnson fall to favourite’s curse? The third substantial gamble in three years is underway on Boris for PM. The first, following David Cameron’s resignation, never even made the starting gate. The second, in the aftermath of the 2017 General Election, became an awful value bet in a matter of hours once it became […]

  • European Elections – Back the Greens to surge

    This article was first published for gambling.com on Wednesday May 22nd. Barring a miracle that would confound every indicator, this week’s European Elections will deliver a historic kicking to Britain’s two main parties. How can we profit from it with the best political betting sites? The very best political betting opportunities have now gone. Those shrewdies that took […]

  • European Parliament Elections Predictions and Betting Tips

    This article first appeared on betting.betfair.com on Wednesday 22nd May. Voting has since closed in the UK but the results are not declared until Sunday night and in-play betting is available on Betfair. As we reach the end of another febrile day in Westminster involving Andrea Leadsom’s resignation and more rumours of Theresa May’s imminent […]

  • Next Tory Leader Betting – Dominic Raab is perfectly poised

    With the news that Theresa May will imminently announce her departure date, the starting pistol has been fired on the Next Conservative Leader race. In reality, that kicked off before the final results of the 2017 General Election were in and hardened political punters are doubtless managing several positions already. It has been quite a […]

  • European Elections: Back Change UK for a wipeout

    This piece was first published on Monday 13th May – unfortunately these luxury odds on Change UK and Lib Dems performance are no longer available. Three months ago, they were the biggest story in Westminster. A group of high-profile defectors from Labour and the Conservatives, standing for moderation, centrism and cross-party collaboration in an era […]

  • Poll carnage as Tory and Labour tactics implode simultaneously

    Perhaps the best way to understand the stalemate since 2016 and increasingly volatile situation is to see Brexit through the prism of party political games. Decades of opportunism is unravelling Long before the referendum, criticising and opposing EU treaties was a cheap win for any ambitious politician from outside government. Accuracy, detail or the ability […]

  • 2020 US Election Betting: Is the Biden Bounce for real?

    The most significant gamble towards the 2020 US Election is underway. In the fortnight since Joe Biden declared his candidacy, the former Vice President has risen to clear second favourite behind Donald Trump, with his odds shortening from 15.0 to a new low of 6.4 this morning. Biden opens up vast early primary lead If […]

  • 2019 UK Local Elections Review – Five takeaways

    1 Tory losses far exceeded worst expectations In losing more than 1300 councillors, these results were unarguably awful for the Tories. Yes, they had a long way to fall and a backlash from Brexiters angry at their failure to deliver was predictable. But the scale defied the experts – the higher academic estimate noted in […]

  • Local Elections Preview: Lib Dems set to reap rewards of Tory implosion

    This piece was first published on 30th April 2019. The first of two elections with the potential to blow up British politics takes place on Thursday. Unlike the European Elections which everybody expects to happen at the end of the month, winning candidates will definitely serve their local councils. Tories set for a catastrophic month […]

  • Biden is the new front-runner but should we back him?

    This piece was first written on 29th April 2019. The 19th and most significant Democrat candidate to date has declared for 2020. Amid a blaze of publicity, Joe Biden launched his presidential campaign with a direct pitch for what opinion polls suggest over half the country want. Rather than policy specifics, the former VP declared […]

  • Newport West By-Election: Brexit backlash could spark Tory implosion

    Amidst much election talk – whether of the general or European variety – a more imminent poll has yet to capture media attention. Come Friday morning, the Newport West By-Election may well be very newsworthy. Labour near-certain to win big Voters in this relatively safe Labour constituency go to the polls on Thursday, following the […]

  • Newport West By-Election Betting Preview

    This article was first published on March 22nd, for gambling.com In this remarkable era for political betting, the word ‘certainty’ should be used with extreme caution. Nevertheless, it is hard to construct an argument for how taking Betway’s 1/6 about Labour winning the Newport West By-election won’t yield a swift 16% profit. Scheduled for April 4th, the by-election […]

  • Michael Gove’s plans are falling into place

    This article was first written on 25th March 2019 for betting.betfair.com If anyone was still in doubt that Brexit is, fundamentally, a Conservative Party soap opera, the weekend’s events surely confirmed it. As voices from across the political spectrum talked of ‘national crisis and ‘humiliation’, the Tory civil war intensified. Various ministers linked with looming […]

  • Beware the bandwagon – we’ve not yet seen the Mueller report

    As he scours the headlines and hot takes on cable news, Donald Trump will enjoy this morning more than any since becoming president in 2016. The first glimpses of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report into Russian interference in that election are out and on the principal charge, Trump and his campaign have been cleared of […]

  • Cohen testimony was merely the start of Donald Trump’s nightmare

    It made instant news around the world, overshadowing the North Korea summit failure, It even knocked Brexit off the Newsnight lead. Michael Cohen’s testimony to Congress was both captivating in detail – laying out the president’s crimes and sparking new lines of investigation into several more – and political theatre. But did it move Betfair’s […]

  • Next Conservative Party Leader – The Top Ten Rankings

    I first wrote this piece six weeks ago. All the rankings and reasoning still apply! Following the legalisation of betting shops in the UK, the first political market to capture public attention was the 1963 contest to become the next Conservative Leader. The favourite Rab Butler was turned over by Alex Douglas-Home – starting a […]

  • Four reasons why you shouldn’t bet on Bernie Sanders for 2020

    This piece is from a fortnight ago. Bernie Sanders best odds are now 10/1 for the presidency and 11/2 for the Democrat nomination. All the arguments against still apply! A frequent political betting mistake is to refight the previous election. To assume the dynamics will be replicated. That the narrative which worked previously will remain […]

  • Five potential Republican primary challengers to Donald Trump

    As if 2019 didn’t present enough problems for Donald Trump, there are indications that he is losing Republican support. Previously compliant Senators now oppose him on a range of issues – tariffs, troop withdrawals, the shutdown. Further opposition looms if he persists with plans to call a state of emergency over funding for his wall. […]

  • 2020 US Election: Amy Klobuchar would be Trump’s nightmare opponent

    All elections are, apparently, now fought on social media. After 2016, it would be presumptive for political pundits to confidently predict who will fare best in that anarchic environment. I shall, therefore, just leave last night’s exchange between two 2020 candidates here for you to decide. Well, it happened again. Amy Klobuchar announced that she […]

  • Brexit Update: Labour’s clearer plan could prove significant

    This piece was originally published on February 8th, 2019 for betting.betfair.com After months of uncertainty and speculation regarding several different outcomes to Brexit, we can all but rule one out. There will be no second referendum in 2020. As Donald Tusk said before his now infamous criticism of Brexiters without a plan, there is no […]

  • Who Would Win a Snap General Election?

    Literally nobody knows where politics is heading. One way or another, voters may well be called to the polls at some point in 2019. With the odds at political betting sites about a second referendum drifting, a general election seems likelier. Labour want one, are committed to pursuing it and have been on an election footing since […]

  • Next Speaker Betting: Who will succeed Bercow?

    Since John Bercow became Speaker of the House of Commons, the Conservative MP for Buckingham has brought no shortage of colour and controversy to the role. Like him or not, he has certainly made parliamentary proceedings more entertaining. On June 22nd, he will celebrate ten years in the job and many believe he will step […]

  • No Deal Brexit is now rated likelier than ever

    Wouldn’t it be nice to have some answers to all the Brexit questions we’ve been asking forever? Will it happen and if so, on time? If not, will there be a second referendum or a snap election? Yesterday’s famous day of amendments in parliament was meant to at least start to resolve them. It didn’t. […]

  • Trump presidency in mortal danger after shutdown humiliation

    Following the mid-terms, I predicted all hell would break loose in the Donald Trump saga, from Robert Mueller to various criminal investigations, to ruinous oversight by a Democrat-led House of Representatives. All that has either materialised or is pending but I didn’t foresee Trump making a ruinous mis-step by forcing the longest shutdown in American […]

  • A 2019 election may be Theresa May’s only option

    Once again, we start the week wondering whether it could be Theresa May’s last in office. The PM will present her Plan B – to the plan that lost by a historic 230 votes – to parliament. If weekend reports are accurate, no meaningful changes will be ensure little or no progress. New amendments set […]

  • What next after Parliament delivers historic defeat to May’s deal?

    To nobody’s surprise, the first reading of the Withdrawal Agreement was comprehensively trounced on Tuesday night as Theresa May’s government suffered the worst defeat in parliamentary history. On Wednesday, the process which we’ve been speculating about for months gets underway as the government faces a No Confidence Vote at 13:00. Literally nobody knows where we […]

  • Latest Brexit Betting – Five Scenarios

    The Brexit clock has ticked down 25 days since my last update – leaving just 79 until departure – but the parliamentary process to deliver it smoothly has barely moved forward. Parliament ties May’s hands ahead of probable defeat Thanks to the intervention of controversial Speaker John Bercow, this week’s parliamentary drama merely confirmed what […]

  • 2019 Political Betting Preview – Five stories to follow

    The number of betting options on politics is growing exponentially and 2019 will be no exception. Elections for the European Parliament will make big news in May and have big implications. A Danish General Election will follow soon after while Sweden – who are yet to resolve coalition talks produced by September’s poll – are […]

  • Will Brexit finish Jeremy Corbyn?

    Brexit may have ripped politics apart but it has yet to remove either of the main party leaders – despite no shortage of opposition. Like Article 50, though, the clock is ticking. Recent speculation has centred on Theresa May, who was matched at just 1.1 to be Next Leader to Leave and is still odds-on […]

  • Theresa May Exit Betting – Three Scenarios

    She has become a great survivor, defying political gravity for the last 18 months. Few believed Theresa May could maintain her position for long after losing her majority at the 2017 election and the PM has been regarded as on the brink ever since. The best political betting sites expect the saga will finally end in 2019, […]

  • How to cash in on the Brexit betting bonanza

    If Betfair markets are any indication of how likely the U.K. is of leaving the European Union on time, then that prospect looks to be fading fast. This follows a truly remarkable couple of days in in parliament which now leaves the U.K in a state scratching their head on when Brexit will actually happen. What […]

  • Could a new political party crash the markets?

    Across the West, political establishments are mired in a crisis of legitimacy. Outsider parties are thriving everywhere and conventional, career politicians struggle to convince or cut through in the social media age. Two of the most mature democracies produced historic political betting upsets when Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron gatecrashed the system. Trump and Macron […]

  • Bombshell revelations pose an ever greater threat to Trump

    Once again, Betfair markets are moving against Donald Trump as the fallout from various legal troubles escalates. Impeachment by the House of Representatives is back down to even money – equivalent to a 50% chance – while his odds to survive a full term have drifted to 1.5 67%. There is money for a 2019 […]

  • A March Brexit is becoming less likely by the day

    *This piece was first published last Friday, so I’ve updated the odds about an on-time Brexit, which have lengthened further since. The chance of the UK leaving the EU on time, if at all, is falling fast if Betfair markets are a guide. Following a truly remarkable few days in parliament, it is now rated […]

  • How to capitalise on Donald Trump’s inevitable demise

    Never before have we seen a bigger driver of political betting than Donald Trump’s blockbuster drama. Seasons one and two saw an outsider become the candidate and defy conventional wisdom to become president. Season three involved a chaotic presidency, culminating in humiliating mid-term defeat. Entering season four, Trump is drowning in legal jeopardy. His ratings […]

  • UK Politics Betting – Which party will emerge stronger from Brexit?

    On Friday morning on the Exchange, the betting for the Next General Election – whenever that may come to pass – was perfectly tied, with both Conservatives and Labour available to back at [2.06] to win most seats. An accurate reflection of the stalemate seen in polls, reinforced at local elections, since the 2017 election. […]

  • Brexit Chaos: What happens next?

    If nothing else, the last two torturous years should have been an educational experience with regards how politics within the EU and between member states works. One lesson for citizens of all countries should be to take anything their politicians or media say with a huge pinch of salt, for they are evidently more concerned […]

  • Parliamentary defeat could be Theresa May’s last stand

    Crunch time, it seems, is finally here. After over two years of speculation – not to mention several hours during the Cabinet meeting – Theresa May released her proposed withdrawal agreement to the media last night. As the details are digested over the coming hours, the world awaits to see what happens next – regarding […]

  • Beto O’Rourke is the star that Democrats need

    Analysing the mid-terms, I argued that Donald Trump will not be re-elected and that there was a good chance he wouldn’t even be on the ballot. Today let’s consider who will take him, or a Republican replacement, on in the 2020 US Presidential Election. Huge field expected for Democrat primary 2020 will see a Democrat […]

  • Why Donald Trump will not be re-elected in 2020

    The world awoke yesterday to the US mid-term election results with one question in mind – will Donald Trump be re-elected? As I have argued consistently since he took office, the answer is no. Nothing about these results, and everything about the immediate aftermath, makes me more certain. 2020 betting unmoved by mid-term signals Many […]

  • Betting plans for the mid-terms and the aftermath

    There has never been a mid-term US election like it, whether measured by the nature of the campaign, media coverage, betting or the significance moving forward. Whether it was the Kavanaugh confirmation, Trump’s ever more extreme immigration rhetoric or the tragedies caused by domestic terrorism, the world has been watching America. On Tuesday, we get […]

  • US Mid-Term Elections Betting Preview

    Next Tuesday, two years since his election shocked betting markets, Donald Trump will face the first meaningful electoral test of his presidency. Although his name is not on the ballot for local races across the country, the president’s omnipresence has come to define all US political matters. Whatever the result, it will be presented as […]

  • Have the US mid-term markets become too pro-Republican?

    The 2016 effect continues to loom large over all political matters, including betting. Before Brexit and Trump, political betting was arguably the most reliable indicator of election results. In the first 15 years of Betfair, the favourite from 100 days out won every major UK or US election. Then suddenly, politics became extremely unpredictable. Bettors […]

  • 2018 US Senate Betting Preview – Ten Key States

    Arizona still too close to call Click here for latest odds Click here for latest polls A vivid example of the mountain Democrats need to climb in order to gain control of the Senate is that Arizona is rated either their best or second best chance of a gain. A solid red state that has […]

  • Are Theresa May’s Brexit machinations about to finally unravel?

    So much for the old idea that betting markets were fundamentally sensitive to media reports. Despite several days of febrile speculation and almost universal agreement that the crunch time for Theresa May’s Brexit plans and therefore leadership has arrived, Betfair markets related to her exit date remain virtually unmoved. Markets backing May to survive ahead […]

  • How will Kavanaugh’s confirmation affect the mid-terms?

    With Brett Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court, the most divisive incident of this most divisive presidency may have been settled, but the culture wars rumble on. The ramifications – whether they be short or long-term, electoral, political, legal or cultural – could be profound. Supreme Court fight has energised Republicans The campaign to stop […]

  • How the Trump presidency will end and how to bet on it

    Nobody in politics has ever known anything quite like Donald Trump and that equally applies to betting. His entry in 2015 sparked record-breaking interest in the US election and his wild ride in office is generating new markets that would previously have been unthinkable. I must declare a long-running interest. I’ve been completely absorbed by […]

  • US Senate 2018: Backing No Majority offers numerous routes to profit

    As the fallout from Brett Kavanaugh’s elevation to the Supreme Court dominates the headlines and narrative, the outcome of November’s mid-term elections remains unpredictable. Few are confidently predicting how the politics of this will play out, and those doubts are feeding into the markets. Democrats slip back for House majority From a low of 1.4, […]

  • Brexit Betting: Don’t overstate Labour’s ability or motive to stop Brexit

    Brexit remains – no pun intended – the most unpredictable political process in living memory. Since I last wrote about it, all the main points have come to fruition. Chequers was exposed as a charade. Theresa May has alienated even more Tories by pursuing a widely unpopular deal. A ‘Peoples Vote’ has gained some momentum, […]

  • How to play Betfair’s ever increasing range of Trump Specials

    One thing nobody could accuse Donald Trump of is failing to spark interest in political betting. From the moment he took office, bettors have been trading the date of his exit date and whether he would survive a full term, not to mention winning a second term. In light of the latest developments in the […]

  • Texas Senate Betting: A race to define 2018 and beyond

    Eight weeks tomorrow, US voters head to the polls for arguably the most important mid-term elections in their history. At stake is control of the House of Representatives, Senate and potentially by extension, the survival of the Trump Presidency. If Democrats win the first, they will likely start impeachment proceedings although they’ll need to win […]

  • Swedish Election: Have the latest Alt-Right insurgents peaked already?

    Europe’s next big election takes place in Sweden on Sunday, and the dominant themes will be familiar to anyone following politics in recent years. Just as we saw in France, Netherlands, Germany and Italy, the narrative involves declining establishment parties and a rising far-Right with realistic ambitions of becoming the largest party. The Sweden Democrats […]

  • The next big political outsider – Michael Avenatti for President

    *Since writing this piece yesterday for Betfair, Avenatti’s odds have fallen from [100.0] to [40.0]. Such moves are typical so early in the race, when it doesn’t take much money to shift the market. I still think he’s a good value pick at [40.0] but equally doubt it will shorten up much more from here […]

  • Corruption will finish Trump but don’t bet on removal

    Its all kicking off again in what has become the most bizarre political market in history. Just when it seemed that bettors were giving up on Donald Trump leaving office prematurely, the US legal system deals the President a double-whammy. Last night, Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort was convicted on eight counts of financial […]

  • Will there be a new centrist party?

    Ian Paisley of the DUP could become the first MP to lose his seat under the Recall Act, after being suspended from the House of Commons for failing to declare family holidays paid for by the Sri Lankan government. Under this relatively new law, if 10% of eligible voters in the constituency sign a petition, […]

  • Suburban backlash in Ohio 12 to intensify GOP mid-term worries

    The biggest political betting event of 2018 will be November’s mid-term US Congressional Elections. Three months out, Betfair markets rate control of the House of Representatives a virtually even contest, with the Democrats slight favourites at 1.91. Republicans remain hot favourites to win the Senate at 1.37. Ohio 12 is an excellent bellweather for the […]

  • Escalating legal troubles spell bad news for Trump

    Back in April, I explained the unique opportunities to hedge between various different, yet related, markets regarding Donald Trump’s future. While those odds have since shifted a little towards the president’s favour, the angle still offers trading mileage and the most recent signals point towards more drama ahead. A brief explanation of the hedging process […]

  • Brexit betting: Looming deadlock will hand momentum to a Peoples Vote

    Over the last few extraordinary weeks, the chances about the following have risen. A ‘hard’, no deal Brexit. An extension of Article 50 beyond next March. A new Tory leader and PM. A constitutional crisis, resulting in a ‘Peoples Vote’ or another general election. Another Scottish independence referendum. Even a realignment of the UK party […]

  • Theresa May survives for now but can she last the year?

    After an unforgettable day of political drama, Betfair markets were downgrading the likelihood of Theresa May being imminently forced out of office but her position remains perilous. The Prime Minister is rated 42% likely to leave office this year at odds of 2.4. In our tri-monthly market, July-Sept is trading at 3.5 (28%) down, from […]

  • Brexit protest to slash Labour’s Lewisham East majority

    When the Lewisham East By-Election was announced – in light of Labour MP Heidi Alexander quitting to take a job with London Mayor Sadiq Khan – my immediate thoughts were conspiratorial. A mid-term by-election in an ultra safe Labour seat, which overwhelmingly voted Remain, offers the perfect chance to challenge Labour’s pro-Brexit stance and potentially […]

  • Back Gove for next Tory leader now as Brexit crisis intensifies

    Today marks the one year anniversary of the General Election and what feels like the last time anything changed in UK politics. The polls are more or less identical, showing a small Conservative lead. The path of Brexit – even the government’s preferred path – is as clear as mud. The Prime Minister remains in […]

  • Will there be a snap election in 2018 and what happens if there is?

    Inevitably, the speculation has begun. With Theresa May’s Brexit plan going nowhere as she struggles to square circles between Cabinet, Parliament and country, The Sunday Times reports that Tory MPs are gearing up for a election this autumn. The odds about 2018 have halved in our Year of Next Election market but, at odds of […]

  • Five takeaways from the UK local elections

    Last week, I pondered how bad the latest council elections would be for the Tories. The answer is nothing like as bad as experts predicted. Rather than take a mid-term thrashing, they were tied for projected national vote share with Labour, whose 77 gains were way below the widely forecast 200 target. According to BBC […]

  • UK Local Elections Betting Preview

    It is more or less standard for governments to struggle in mid-term, as angry voters become motivated to register a protest. That particularly applies once they’ve been elected three times and are in the midst of multiple crises. Against a backdrop of the Windrush scandal, Amber Rudd’s resignation and Cabinet and parliamentary division over Brexit, […]

  • How to win money by hedging between Betfair’s Trump specials

    Betfair markets related to Donald Trump’s future are kicking off again as FBI investigations into the US President and his closest allies intensifies. At odds of 1.63, the chance of him serving a full first-term in office has slipped to 61% from around 68%. At yesterday’s low point, it was just 58%. As ever with […]

  • Will the Blue Wave sweep a Trump heartland?

    Since Donald Trump became President, his Democrat opponents have dominated a spate of special elections, thanks in no small part to a remarkable surge in enthusiasm and turnout. Many of us firmly believe this ‘Blue Wave’ will carry them to a majority in the House of Representatives in November. Tonight, we will get the best […]

  • Are Trump betting markets underestimating Mueller?

    Market sentiment towards Donald Trump is shifting significantly and, perhaps more pertinently, suddenly seems impervious to the relentless scandal and drama associated with this president. Back at the start of November, following indictments against four members of the Trump campaign, our market regarding whether or not he serves a full term in office spiked. At […]

  • How the Tory leadership race could unfold

    If anyone still needs a measure to illustrate the unpredictability of politics in 2018, check out the Next Conservative and Labour Leader markets. Neither has what could be described as a hot favourite and only three candidates are trading at single figure odds. Little wonder perhaps, in light of recent upsets and grassroots uprisings, but […]

  • Six candidates for next UKIP leader

    They may be polling below 2% and be all but wiped out in local government but you just can’t keep UKIP out of the headlines. Albeit for all the wrong reasons. With leader Henry Bolton clinging to power after an overwhelming vote of no confidence and serial resignations, a fourth leadership contest in less than […]

  • Should Labour be further ahead in the polls?

    We may be living through a volatile, unpredictable political era but there is little evidence of it in recent opinion polls. Since last June’s election, they have moved only slightly towards Labour and another snap election would likely produce a very similar result. Such is the inertia that pundits feel compelled to comment on 1% […]

  • Oprah for President? Six celebrities in contention for 2020

    It was inevitable once Donald Trump had changed the game – betting an a US Presidential Election would never be the same again. The fields are no longer merely Republican and Democrat politicians but a wide array of characters from popular culture and business. At this early stage at least, celebrities are the candidates that […]

  • The Trump ship may finally sink in 2018

    In a stark change from the trajectory of recent years, Betfair markets are taking a steadily improving view of Donald Trump’s prospects. From a low point of 43% in the wake of indictments related to the Russia investigation, the US President is now rated 53% likely to survive a full-term in office at odds of […]

  • Five political markets to follow in 2018

    The date of the next UK General Election Whilst political betting is fast becoming a global phenomenon, nothing still quite compares to an election in the country that revolutionised it. Each of the last four years has seen a major domestic poll and our latest General Election involved a wider array of speciality markets than […]

  • 2017 Review: The Year of the Liberal Backlash

    For the third straight year, Betfair markets illustrated the new politics. Highly unpredictable, with conventional wisdom in crisis and unprecedented volatility. We have seen an outsider, with no party infrastructure, gatecrash the French presidency. The Democrats won Alabama. And Jeremy Corbyn came within a few constituencies of pulling off the greatest upset in the history […]

  • Toxic Moore means a win win scenario for Democrats

    If you thought US politics would return to normality soon, tonight’s special election in Alabama should end that delusion. A race that would in normal times be entirely predictable and barely noted beyond the keenest followers has become a huge international story – for what it represents, the implications and because it remains on a […]

  • How long can Theresa May survive?

    As her government becomes engulfed in one crisis after another, Betfair punters are backing an imminent, or at least relatively swift, exit for Theresa May. At odds of 8.2, the Prime Minister leaving post before the end of the year is still only rated equivalent to a 12% chance but today, January-March 2018 hit its […]

  • Markets move against Trump after Mueller’s opening Russia arrests

    From the moment he entered politics, Donald Trump has repeatedly defied the verdict of Betfair markets. After what will be known forever as Mueller Monday, he will need to defy them again merely in order to see out his full term. The US President is now rated likelier than not – odds of 1.9 are […]

  • Win free tickets to the Matchbook Traders Conference!

    We’ve got a great event to look forward to at the beginning of next month – a unique opportunity to hear some of the finest minds from the world of betting and network with a like-minded audience of gambling enthusiasts. The annual Matchbook Traders Conference has already developed a tremendous reputation and will take place in […]

  • Is politics now inherently unpredictable?

    I was recently privileged to join a distinguished panel for the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute, at Cambridge University, discussing the future of politics. In response to the question raised by this title, here’s my essay. Politics has only become uncertain because the rules of the game have changed In order to predict the future […]

  • 2020 US Election Betting: Who will be the Democrat candidate?

    Less than a year after the most memorable election in the history of political betting, it is time to start thinking seriously about the sequel. While speculation remains rife regarding whether President Donald Trump will again be the Republican candidate or even last a full term – he’s only rated 50% likely to do so […]

  • Two new outside bets for Next Conservative leader

    After weeks of overtly attempting to destabilise his boss and the media saturation that he knew it would generate, Boris Johnson has resumed favouritism to be the Next Tory Leader. However at 6.4, equivalent to a 15% chance, this market move carries nothing like the optimism that forced his odds down to 2.66 (37%) during […]

  • Centrists may be homeless but tainted Lib Dems won’t fill the vacuum

    Struggling to find a talking point to take from last week’s Lib Dem conference, much of the media opted to focus on perhaps the ultimate example of what The Independent’s Jon Rentoul would call a QTWAIN – could Vince Cable become the country’s next PM? The BBC’s Question Time even devoted ten minutes to the […]

  • Updates on the German and NZ Elections

    Fourth term looks secure for Angela Merkel Three days out from the German Federal Election, Betfair markets could barely be offering a clearer signal towards the result. Despite short-odds punters getting burnt in a series of big polls around the globe recently, they are queueing up to back Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU party at the minimum […]

  • For all his great PR, Boris won’t succeed May

    It is good to know there are still some timeless certainties in politics. The Conservative Party will be split over Europe. The media will be obsessed with leadership challenge rumours and Boris Johnson will be doing anything within his power to generate publicity for himself. Ever since the Foreign Secretary dropped his 4,000 word Brexit […]

  • German Election Betting: Don’t bank on another grand coalition

    For yet another illustration of how the political landscape and betting sentiment is constantly changing fast, check out the odds for next Sunday’s German Federal Election. Back at the beginning of 2017, with the world still in shock following Brexit and Donald Trump’s election, many believed that mainstream Europe and most dramatically Germany could also […]

  • Five reasons to back Labour for the next election

    After 18 months of relentless political drama, generating the biggest ever betting markets in our medium, the summer has felt slightly weird. Sure, there are ongoing Brexit negotiations, rumours of Tory leadership bids and daily Donald Trump developments but, on the political betting front, it has been relatively quiet. That’s because long-term markets will always […]

  • Trump now rated likelier to leave early than not

    For several weeks – roughly since the Charlottesville riots – the likelihood of Donald Trump failing to last a full term as President has consistently traded above 50% on Betfair markets. Reflecting our polarised times, in which anyone can create their own news bubble aligned with their politics, there is no shortage of confidence on […]

  • Could new anti-Brexit party transform British politics?

    After Corbyn, Trump, Brexit, Macron and Theresa May’s lost majority, get set for the next improbable political gamble at massive odds. ‘Any Other Party’ besides the Conservatives, Labour or Lib Dems to win the next UK General Election is currently available to back around [120.0]. Win or lose, expect it to shorten. While the market […]

  • Why Tories should fear Momentum’s rapid rise

    Piece by piece, the British Election Study is revealing the explanations behind our earthquake election, from the profile and churn of voters since 2015 to the issues that most concerned them. These most authoritative findings will be pored over by every party strategist and shape the way they respond to, or spin, policies such as […]

  • The tide is turning against Donald Trump

    After two years of the unlikeliest front-line political candidate in history repeatedly defying conventional wisdom, expert opinion and betting markets, it is tempting to tire of asking the question. Nevertheless it may be more pertinent than ever. The Trump Impeachment Saga is escalating. In the wake of the latest revelations in the Trump Russia scandal, […]

  • Five ways conventional wisdom has broken down

    As recently as 2014, political betting was arguably the most reliable market for favourite-backers. Suddenly it’s become a haven for historic upsets. Anyone who thought 2016 was a freak year got a rude awakening last month. Based on their respective positions at the start of each campaign, Labour denying a Conservative majority was a bigger […]

  • Next Tory Leader: The top five candidates rated

    Whichever way one looks at it, Theresa May’s days as Prime Minister are numbered. Perhaps it will be soon, as furious Tory MPs blame her for the shocking election result. Perhaps she can survive for a few years, restoring her reputation by skilfully managing an impossibly split Commons and successfully negotiating Brexit. But few ever […]

  • Where next for the troubled Tories?

    If the markets are to believed, the uncertainty and speculation will soon be over. The Next Government is rated 92% likely to be a Conservative Minority with Theresa May a 94% chance to be Prime Minister of it. Whether, after five massive political betting upsets in the space of two years, you regard betting markets […]

  • General Election 2017: Final predictions

    When Theresa May called this election seven weeks ago, the overwhelming consensus predicted a landslide victory. Any non-partisan voices suggesting Labour could put up a fight, let alone deny the Tories a majority, were extremely hard to find. Yet here we are on election eve and there are plenty of punters willing to stake sizeable […]

  • The best six Conservative constituency bets

    National polls are differing wildly but all agree the gap is narrowing. Regardless of their accuracy, that is good news for value-seekers. A problem with the early betting was that, given their enormous poll lead, constituency odds about the Conservatives were extremely prohibitive. That is no longer the case. A crucial factor to remember in […]

  • Lib Dem demise should ensure a Tory majority

    Over the course of the campaign, this election has been likened to many from the past. Inevitably, comparisons were made with Margaret Thatcher, with the early and betting implying Theresa May would even improve on the Iron Lady’s 1983 personal best – a majority of 144. Even if the Tories underperformed, their 1987 majority of […]

  • Gamblers are obsessed with the Trump Impeachment Saga

    When it all began nearly two years ago, we all knew it would be entertaining. What we didn’t realize was that entertainment would ultimately trump politics, and the daily business of the leader of the free world would become the first global soap opera. The plot-lines are better than anything the writers of House of […]

  • Is Corbyn’s youth appeal a gamechanger?

    One week from polling day, what exactly is the state of play? Pretty much whenever the same question was asked during the 2015 campaign, the same answer came forth – dead-heat. When it turned out to be completely wrong, pollsters that largely agreed on a daily basis were an easy scapegoat. That cannot be said […]

  • 2017 General Election: The six best Labour constituency bets

    So you want to bet on Labour. You’ve seen their polls rise throughout their campaign and believe they have momentum. Jeremy Corbyn has easily surpassed low media expectations, while Theresa May’s ‘strong and stable’ brand has nosedived during the campaign. Moreover, you’ve seen with Brexit and Donald Trump that the media and long-range betting market […]

  • General Election 2017: 5 dynamics to follow during the TV debates

    As we enter the closing stretch, the time has come for those make-or-break TV moments, starting tonight with The Battle for Number Ten on Sky News. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will face a grilling from Jeremy Paxman and a studio audience. Then on Wednesday, BBC host a seven-way debate. This will involve the leaders […]

  • How far can Labour’s comeback go?

    It remains a longshot, but in 12 days time the political prediction industry could be in meltdown. Donald Trump may have produced the biggest upset of all-time but even that shock would pale into insignificance compared to Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. Three weeks ago that eventuality was rated less than 3% likely on our […]

  • General Election 2017: Constituency Guide

    Arguably the very best betting value in this election is to be found in the constituency betting. The UK is in the middle of a dramatic realignment in terms of party affiliation, with significant regional and demographic variations. I’ve selected 50 of the most interesting and competitive races, analysing each and making a prediction. Throughout […]

  • General Election 2017: 5 indicators of the state of play

    1) Theresa May’s honeymoon is well and truly over Back at the start of this election campaign, I mooted the idea that the enormous Tory poll leads were unrealistic – a peak moment of Theresa May’s long honeymoon with the voters. After a week of manifesto chaos and sliding poll numbers, it is definitely over. […]

  • Why Theresa May will eventually regret calling this election

    The Prime Minister should count her lucky stars that elections aren’t determined by manifestos. After dominating the last week’s news cycle, their effect threatens to change British politics. Labour have enjoyed their best week in years, while yesterday’s Tory launch seemed to achieve nothing besides generate criticism from both left and right. Labour are surging […]

  • Will Donald Trump be forced out early?

    Everything about his unique campaign suggested the Trump presidency would not be a conventional one, and so it has proved. A mere 121 days in, Betfair punters are backing him to leave before the end of his first term. Normally at this stage of the election cycle, betting on US politics would be focused on […]

  • Who will provide the Portillo Moment of 2017?

    For the benefit of younger readers, to whom Michael Portillo is a charming, urbane character with a penchance for trains, this title requires explanation. It wasn’t always this way. 20 years ago, #sadmanonatrain was a toxic figure in a deeply unpopular Tory government. His 1997 defeat to Stephen Twigg was later voted the public’s third […]

  • Labour’s radical manifesto can avert total meltdown

    Thursday was rather odd. One week on from historically bad local election results, with national polls pointing to a similar disaster on June 8th, Betfair punters moved Labour’s odds in a positive direction. Granted, that improvement was extremely marginal and doesn’t even begin to signal a change in the likely general election result, but the […]

  • Will Labour unite around a Cooper coronation?

    In the aftermath of electoral defeat, it is conventional for the main opposition to pick a new leader. Especially if the party goes backwards. That has been the case after every election since 1987, whether Conservative or Labour. The last to stay in post was Neil Kinnock, uncontroversially given that his efforts had just yielded […]

  • Five takeaways from the local elections

    1) Theresa May is heading for a record-breaking win Even before Thursday’s local elections, few could honestly envisage anything other than a Conservative majority. After confirmation of their 558 gains – a remarkable tally for a party governing alone – the only realistic question involves the scale. The new favourite on Betfair’s Size of Conservative […]

  • General Election 2017 Betting: Local results will hurt Labour

    If media narrative is the key to political success, Theresa May just took another big step towards a majority of historic size. Thursday’s speech outside Downing Street, framing this election as her pluckily defending the nation against Jean Claude Juncker and the Brussels bureaucrats, was exactly what the Tory tabloids wanted to hear. It will […]

  • Has the Conservative lead peaked?

    Ever since Theresa May stunned us all by announcing this snap election, political bettors have broadly fallen into two camps. Those of us who regard the Conservatives – especially for Most Seats – as a stone-cold certainty. The best chance to earn 5% or so interest on your money over a few weeks. As my […]

  • Labour will perform better than many expect

    England is not Scotland. Apologies for stating the bleeding obvious but the differences should not be forgotten when trying to weigh up the scale of disaster facing Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. We know the similarities and dire narrative. In Scotland, amidst a surge of nationalism in the wake of their independence referendum, Labour were swept […]

  • Can anything stop a Tory landslide?

    During the 20th century, political scientists referred to UK Conservatives as the most successful political party in the Western world. Their secret was an ability to move with the times and adapt to a changing electorate. When a core policy became unpopular, they would drop it. While their rivals tore themselves apart over ideology, the […]

  • Will Russia scandal destroy Trump’s presidency?

    It isn’t everyday that one pities a man whose job is to head the FBI, but surely nobody could envy the political tightrope James Comey has walked these past 18 months and counting. In an ever more partisan environment where both sides seem intent on nothing less than the total destruction of their opponents, pleasing […]

  • The Alt-Right is wrong. Wilders won’t become Dutch PM.

    Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past year, you will have heard about a political revolution sweeping the Western world. Brexit and the election of alt-Right hero Donald Trump were driven by the ‘silent majority’ rejecting mass immigration and a globalist agenda, imposed against their will by an out-of-touch political class. A […]

  • French Election Odds Update: Alain Juppe poised to land historic gamble

    We thought it could never happen again. That no political market could ever compare to the 2016 US election. One where rumours, scandal and media speculation regularly sparked the most dramatic market moves on people who weren’t even running. One where a main candidate’s participation was in doubt right up to the closing stages. Yet […]

  • Gorton offers beleaguered Corbyn some respite

    In the wake of last Thursday’s by-election double-header, the weekend political news cycle primarily concerned the future of Jeremy Corbyn. After losing Copeland after 80 years of Labour rule and holding ultra-safe Stoke-on-Trent Central on a diminished majority, no rational observer could deny the party’s grim mid-term position. However if his internal enemies hoped these […]

  • Final thoughts and predictions on tonight’s by-elections

    A critical, changing feature of by-elections is that polls are few and far between nowadays. When we do hear about one, it tends to have been commissioned by a faction with an obvious agenda – such as the Labour Leave survey that suggested UKIP were on course to win Stoke easily. Polls have their weaknesses, […]

  • Tories popular ahead of by-election double-header

    Phrases such as ‘must-win’ and ‘do-or-die’ have often been used to define the challenge facing parties in UK by-elections. Rarely, however, could such terms have legitimately applied to two different leaders. Yet one bad result on Thursday night could prove ruinous for either Jeremy Corbyn or Paul Nuttall. It is hard to recall a night […]

  • Political betting goes global after record year

    Whatever one thinks of Brexit, Donald Trump and the wave of anti-establishment populism sweeping the Western world, we should all be able to agree that politics became a lot more interesting and unpredictable in 2016. The combination of drama, unique characters and the touchstone issues in play helped justify predictions of becoming the biggest ever […]

  • Clive Lewis poised as punters back Corbyn for early exit

    Yesterday, anticipating Clive Lewis’ resignation from Labour’s Shadow Cabinet, I advised a new bet on the Norwich South MP at 8/1, following on from much earlier advice at 25/1. Today’s article discusses his prospects and the wider Labour crisis.   New bet in light of looming Labour drama: Backed Clive Lewis 20 units @ 8-1 […]

  • Outsiders look the value in search for an alternative to Fillon

    Fuelled no doubt by the drama of 2016 and Marine Le Pen’s plausible candidacy, the French election was already shaping up to be a much bigger betting heat than usual before the Penelopegate scandal broke. Now, as I wrote earlier this week, we are looking at a potential re-run of the US election drama. In […]

  • Macron the new French favourite after Penelopegate

    Once upon a time, political betting was just about the most predictable game on earth. National elections were won by the favourite. Period. Then along came 2016 and, like just about all things political, all of our assumptions and long-established trends became redundant. With Brexit and Donald Trump fresh in the memory, political bettors seem […]

  • Corbyn crisis as UKIP assume Stoke favouritism

    Earlier, I announced three new bets regarding the two forthcoming by-elections and on Jeremy Corbyn’s future. The piece below explores the two contests and wider implications for Labour. 2 new by-election bets: Backed UKIP 20 units @ Evens for Stoke; Laid (opposed) Labour 15 units @ 3.1 for Copeland. — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) January 26, […]

  • Five immediate challenges facing Donald Trump

    1) Unite the American public behind his controversial presidency or at least gain legitimacy While there has rarely if ever been a candidate who so starkly divided opinion, there are a couple of adjectives we can all agree upon. Donald Trump is unique on both a personal and political level and pretty much everything since […]

  • Hunt resignation piles pressure on Corbyn

    When looking ahead to the big political betting stories of 2017, I discussed the likelihood of a series of by-elections being triggered by Labour MPs, aimed at destabilising Jeremy Corbyn, or at least having that effect. After a second of his fiercest critics quit this morning, we already have two to look forward to. In […]

  • Trump backed for early exit as Russia allegations persist

    If you thought 2016 was a freak political year, ahead of a return to business as usual, think again. Next week, the unlikeliest President in US history will take office and Donald Trump shows no sign of evolving into anything like we’ve come to expect in a national leader. It is impossible to understate the […]

  • Five big political betting stories to follow in 2017

    The Jeremy Corbyn saga continues Following the biggest ever year in political betting history, dominated by Brexit and Donald Trump, there is plenty of scope for world-changing drama in 2017. As discussed below, there are three major European elections with profound implications for the continent. However in terms of providing betting activity throughout the whole […]

  • Could Copeland be a tipping point for Corbyn?

    Compared to Brexit or a Donald Trump presidency, the fate of the increasingly irrelevant Labour Party may seem like small beer. Nevertheless, the rise and widely predicted, pending fall of Jeremy Corbyn continues to compete for headlines and provide plenty of betting activity. Despite defying the odds, media derision and vitriol from most of his […]

  • Romney must be opposed at short odds

    There are many things that we should have learned about Donald Trump over the past 18 months – most of all that he routinely breaks political convention and is unpredictable. Which is why playing Betfair’s Next Secretary of State market is both exciting and fraught with danger. Consider the last two incumbents – John Kerry and Hillary […]

  • Can UKIP pull off a huge betting upset?

    One week ago, that great British tradition of by-election upsets was upheld. The Lib Dem victory in Richmond Park not only restored their reputation as the ultimate mid-term protest party and by-election specialists, but signaled a potentially big change in our political landscape since Brexit. Tomorrow, we will get another chance to test the new […]

  • Lib Dem fightback to fall short – for now

    Five months on from the referendum, one issue continues to crowd out all others in British politics. The fallout from Brexit and attempts to resist it will dominate the agenda for years to come, shaping the narrative and potentially re-aligning our party system. The first meaningful electoral test of that fallout arrives this Thursday, with […]

  • How electoral systems keep fooling betting markets

    The US Election votes are still being counted but with each day that passes, this result looks ever more like the greatest electoral anomaly in living memory. Hillary Clinton is on course to win by the popular vote by around 2M votes, yet suffer a resounding 306-232 defeat in the electoral college. This isn’t an excuse. I argued many times […]

  • Final US Election Portfolio

    Where on earth to start after the most incredible political event most of us can ever remember? I’ve just returned to the UK and will be writing more over the weekend but for this first piece, I’ll simply settle up the portfolio ahead of wider explanation and analysis. Obviously, Trump becoming president was a catastrophe – […]

  • 5 reasons why I’m still all in on Clinton

    When I was first asked my prediction to be the Next US President back in July 2015, the answer needed no hesitation – Hillary Rodham Clinton. She was favourite on Betfair’s market back then and, despite a rollercoaster ride over the next 16 months including the constant threat of indictment, has never surrendered that position. […]

  • Key States Preview: NEVADA

    Electoral College Votes: 6 Latest Live Odds  Realclearpolitics poll average These six electoral college votes will be among the most keenly contested as NV has picked every president since 1976. Polls have regularly pointed to a near dead-heat although there could be sampling issues here. Local political expert Jon Ralston has argued that Hispanics may […]

  • State of play: Clinton remains strong favourite

    Two days out from the conclusion of the most incredible election cycle and biggest political betting event in history, the verdict of Betfair punters remains the same as it has ever since the market opened – Hillary Clinton will be the Next US President. After drifting significantly from 1.2 to 1.44 lastweek, the money is […]

  • US Election Betting Portfolio Update

    Trading inevitably involves navigating peaks and troughs in the market. Timing is pivotal to success. Whilst it has been profitable so far and I remain extremely confident about the outcome, on the latter point, I can’t say I’ve played this election cycle well. In the primaries my cover bets on Trump were terribly timed, probably […]

  • Five ways to profit from election side markets

    With nearly £90M matched already, Betfair’s Next President market is well on course to become the biggest political betting event of all-time. This main market, however, is only the tip of the iceberg. For the serious political bettor, there’s a bet to cover pretty much every angle. That includes odds on every state, the percentage […]

  • Are new Clinton e-mail revelations a gamechanger?

    In ten days, hundreds of millions of people will breathe a huge sigh of relief as the strangest, most entertaining, depressing, dramatic and unpredictable election in democratic history is finally resolved. And that’s just American voters. Those of us who’ve spent the last year trading Betfair’s US election markets will need a holiday. New FBI […]

  • A Clinton landslide is still under-rated

    The following piece was published on Thursday, before the latest e-mail drama. The odds have moved considerably since against Clinton, but the general argument still applies. With less than a fortnight until polling day, the verdict from various prediction models and Betfair markets is unanimous. Hillary Clinton is overwhelmingly likely to become the Next President. […]

  • Richmond presents a golden opportunity for Lib Dems

    As various recent events on both sides of the Atlantic illustrate, conventional political parties are creaking under the weight of international, cultural and ideological pressures. Voters are less inclined to affiliate or identify themselves with one party, or one set of policies. Party members less likely to take instruction from leaders. The British party system […]

  • Key Election States: NORTH CAROLINA

    Electoral College Votes: 15 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average One of the key battlegrounds. Obama won in 2008 – becoming the first Democrat to do so since 1976 – but lost in 2012. If Clinton wins these 15 electoral college votes back, it becomes extremely hard to imagine her losing. No Republican has won […]

  • How Evan McMullin could be the next #POTUS

    One of many strange features of this unique election cycle has been that, ever since the primary process yielded historically unpopular candidates, there has been constant speculation about finding alternatives to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. First there was months of speculation about Trump being blocked at the Republican Convention – prompting gambles about several […]

  • Debate Review: Donald Trump blows his final chance

    Fighting against a backdrop of terrible polls, Donald Trump desperately needed a gamechanging, momentum-reversing performance in last night’s third and final debate. He didn’t produce it. Compared to the two previous debates and perhaps above expectations, Trump actually performed pretty well. Focus groups of undecided voters on both CNN and CBS said he edged it […]

  • Portfolio update: Trading and hedging plans explained

    As implied in yesterday’s piece, I could hardly be more confident about my long-running pro-Clinton positions. Trump is headed for a big defeat and the task is to measure the scale of it. At this stage, I’m not altering the published portfolio. I’m heavily invested in a big Clinton victory and expect the market will […]

  • Locked in a negative spiral, Trump is on course for a huge defeat

    If we can trust the opinion polls, Donald Trump’s bid for the presidency appears to be doomed. Three weeks from polling day and ahead of tomorrow’s final TV debate, the Republican candidate trails Hillary Clinton across a slate of national polls by an average 7% and sometimes double-digit margins. By comparison, at this stage four […]

  • Key #Election2016 States: WISCONSIN

    WISCONSIN Electoral College Votes: 10 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average Though only offering ten electoral college votes, the Badger State is one of the most important. Along with Pennsylvania, it is probably the most vulnerable in Clinton’s firewall. The bad news for Trump is that no Republican has won it since Ronald Reagan in […]

  • Key #Election2016 States: FLORIDA

    Electoral College Votes: 29 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average The Sunshine State probably garners more international attention than any in US elections, particularly since the ‘hanging chads’ debacle in 2000 handed the presidency to George W Bush. With 29 electoral college votes up for grabs and a tight partisan split, it is always pivotal […]

  • Key #Election2016 States: OHIO

    Electoral College Votes: 18 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average The Buckeye State is often referred to as America’s ultimate bellweather, based on the fact it has picked every president since 1960. Both parties will throw huge campaign resources in pursuit of these 18 electoral college votes – down two from 2012. It is particularly […]

  • Updating the #Election2016 odds for RT’s Watching The Hawks!

    Last week I was privileged to make my third appearance on the superb RT show “Watching the Hawks”. This time I was live in the studio, rather than via satellite link, so I got to watch a particularly interesting episode close-up. In addition to discussing the latest odds to win the presidency, distribution of electoral […]

  • Trump’s campaign in crisis ahead of St Louis debate

    Losing the opening TV debate need not necessarily spell disaster for a presidential campaign. Four years ago, Barack Obama was widely assumed to have lost to Mitt Romney. The polls moved briefly towards Romney but the president bounced back in the final two en route to a landslide. A good omen, then, for Donald Trump […]

  • Could Trump’s campaign implode or meltdown?

    As momentum swings firmly towards Hillary Clinton, there will inevitably be talk of a Donald Trump comeback. There is still a month to go and the media needs a close race for rating purposes. However at the risk of being accused of talking up my book, we need to equally discuss just how bad things could get […]

  • New bets added to my #Election2016 portfolio

    Slowly but surely liquidity in the various election markets is improving and, as it develops, I’m building my portfolio. Following last week’s bet on Clinton Electoral College Votes, I’ve now added two more pro-Clinton positions on handicap markets, as advised on Twitter yesterday. Another #Election2016 bet: 20 units Hillary Clinton @ 1.73 for Betfair's +49.5 […]

  • My trading plan for the electoral college

    I’ve been saying for ages that the distribution of electoral college votes is my ideal strategy for the closing stretch of the election and today, I’ve published my first bet. New #Election2016 bet: Back Clinton to get 330-359 Electoral College Votes 25u @ 6 – try these 3 bookies. https://t.co/H7td3fKhUP — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) September […]

  • Five key takeaways from the first Presidential debate

    1 Clinton reversed a bad news cycle to resume pole position Heading into Monday’s opening debate, Hillary Clinton backers had plenty to worry about. A combination of health concerns, intense scrutiny of her e-mails and foundation, plus some improved performances from Donald Trump had whittled down a substantial poll lead to a virtual dead-heat. Her […]

  • Trump’s data deficit could cost him the election

    Arguably the biggest single reason behind Donald Trump’s successful bid for the Republican nomination was the fact he has never been a politician. In an era when professional politicians and loathed and distrusted like never before, Trump’s outsider status captivated a conservative audience that yearns for someone to shake up the establishment. Entering the final […]

  • Labour’s suicidal civil war will escalate, not end after Corbyn’s victory

    This week, the result of the Labour leadership contest will be announced. The market rates Jeremy Corbyn overwhelming 98% favourite to win at 1.02 but, as announced on Twitter last week, I’m taking no chances and took my 22 unit profit when the odds went to 1.04. Why take the risk when there are party […]

  • In blowing his best ever news cycle, did Trump just lose the election?

    There is no precise, scientific means of explaining what determines elections, opinion polls or betting markets. Each election and each candidate is unique, and even the individual voter cannot reliably explain why they react in a certain way. My belief, held pretty much throughout my adult life based on the experience in England, is that […]

  • Measuring and reacting to Trump’s unarguable momentum

    We’ve just seen two milestones passed on Betfair’s Next President market. First, the total matched has passed $50M – my estimate is it will go beyond $200M by polling day. Second and more significantly, Donald Trump has passed another threshold in trading below [3.0]. At [2.96], equivalent to a 34% chance, he’s at his lowest odds yet […]

  • Clinton’s dire weekend may actually work to her advantage

    Back in January, when asked to list the ten best political betting markets of all time, I took the liberty of pre-empting this year’s presidential cycle. A safe bet that has more than delivered. After the latest bout of market madness, it deserves to be number one. From the moment news broke about a ‘medical […]

  • Extensive interview with Business Insider

    Just before leaving for the States last weekend, I met up with Adam Payne from Business Insider UK for an extensive interview. An exciting opportunity, as I love this magazine and it’s willingness to stray from the conventional wisdom of longer established business press when necessary. We discussed my 15 year career as a professional […]

  • Just how damaged is Hillary Clinton?

    She’s been the overwhelming favourite to succeed Barack Obama since Betfair’s Next President market opened, and is the shortest priced ever at this stage of a US election cycle. She couldn’t have handpicked a more toxic opponent than Donald Trump, and enjoys a massive advantage in terms of campaign organisation. Yet Democrats are getting worried […]

  • Praising Putin could halt Trump’s recent progress

    Judging by the immediate reaction on social media, I wasn’t alone in finding Wednesday’s NBC Commander In Chief forum a profoundly depressing affair. On the worst interpretation, both Clinton and Trump were allowed to tell straightforward lies. At best, highly dubious comments went unscrutinised. Trump’s claim that he was always against the 2003 Iraq war […]

  • Extensive Interview with Secret Betting Club

    Here’s my recent interview with the excellent betting advice site www.secretbettingclub.com. In it, we discuss the growth of political betting and how to make it pay, including my historical record across a range of markets in both the UK and USA. We discuss past leadership contests, general elections and Brexit, along with my analysis of the ongoing […]

  • 5 key stories that could shape the late narrative

    In terms of both opinion polls and sentiment on Betfair markets, the race for the presidency is closing fast. Hillary Clinton remains the strongest favourite at this stage of a US election this century, but a bad couple of weeks has seen her odds drift back to roughly where they were in July, before gaining a […]

  • Trump’s immigration balancing act looks shaky

    After a generally disastrous run ever since becoming the presumptive nominee, Donald Trump has just enjoyed a good week. Though still trailing in the polls and historically weak on Betfair markets, both of those indicators have moved in his favour. At odds of 4.0, he’s now rated 25% likely to be Next President, up from […]

  • Traders can still win big from opposing Trump

    As illustrated in previous portfolios, my betting plans are not necessarily based on taking a definitive prediction about the result or, in some cases, even taking much of a risk. Rather, the game is to set up a position that is predicted to improve on betting markets over time. Even better, hedge multiple markets against […]

  • Is 2016 the year for a minor party breakthrough?

    From the moment 17 Republican candidates headed by a reality TV star kickstarted the process, the 2016 election cycle has been unique and unpredictable. With fewer than 80 days remaining, markets point to a one-sided contest yet both adjectives still apply. Betfair punters will be used to the straight-up, binary choice available in the three […]

  • The electoral map looks devastating for Trump

    Four years ago, at this stage of the 2012 presidential cycle, there was a stark difference between clear betting market signals and a commentariat loathe to jump off the fence. Whereas pundits were saying en masse that the race was ‘too close to call’, Betfair punters consistently made Barack Obama the odds-on favourite to beat […]

  • 5 reasons why Brexit doesn’t mean Donald Trump will win

    The decision of UK voters to quit the European Union did not just send shockwaves through British politics. The world was watching, seeking to understand what it may signify for their own futures. Indeed, it was widely seen as the latest demonstration of an anti-establishment trend sweeping across the Western world. In particular, as I’ve […]

  • Is it time to take #RecallTrump seriously?

    As a gambler, one must always be mindful of talking up your own position. Of becoming too convinced by your own opinion that you can’t see the wood for the trees. I’ve been wrestling with this position for months, regarding the unprecedented, bizarre and increasingly ridiculous candidacy of Donald Trump. My longstanding opposition to Trump […]

  • 7 reasons why Donald Trump won’t win

    The idea that a celebrity, reality TV star could become US President always seemed faintly ridiculous – until Donald Trump defied the commentariat and betting odds to win the Republican nomination. Betfair punters take a similarly dim view about his general election chances, rating him only 22% likely to beat Hillary Clinton at odds of […]

  • Scrutiny will eventually destroy Donald Trump

    Sceptics of my longstanding, confident prediction that Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump in November often ask the same question – “He’s got this far despite you all writing him off, so why can’t Trump prove you all wrong again?”. The question is unarguably valid. Like so many others, I simply couldn’t envisage Trump lasting […]

  • Can Clinton maintain Betfair’s perfect record?

    The predictive qualities of political betting markets have become an ever more salient talking point in recent years, based on a near perfect record in big elections. Since the inception of Betfair in 2001, the favourite from 100 days out to be Next President or party to win the most seats went on to win […]

  • US Election Betting Portfolio Update

    With the confirmation of both candidates at the party conventions, the second and final stage of the US Presidential Election is underway. A wide array of new, interesting markets have just opened on Betfair – including state betting and the distribution of electoral college votes. From now, with several UK political markets now settled and […]

  • Why the VP picks could matter more this time

    The first stage of the US Presidential Election betting cycle is finally complete. With Donald Trump and Mike Pence confirmed as the Republican ticket last week in Cleveland, Hillary Clinton named Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate last night, ahead of the Democratic Convention in Philadelphia. While these veepstakes are always a hot […]

  • Donald Trump’s odds shorten again

    The most unconventional and unlikely presidential candidate in US history just hit his highest rating yet in the race for the White House. In finally securing the Republican nomination, Donald Trump killed the hopes of numerous detractors and ended one of the most exciting and dramatic races in the history of political betting. In response, […]

  • Where are the Labour heavyweights?

    When Labour last had a leadership contest, I successfully predicted Jeremy Corbyn at 24-1 for various reasons. One particularly stood out. The three ‘establishment’ candidates were terrible. In the weeks leading up to Corbyn’s surprise entry, online campaigns were launched to find a better candidate – Lisa Nandy and Keir Starmer for example. Neither took […]

  • Labour leadership: Can Owen Smith beat Corbyn?

    In the week when the Conservative Party united in order to usher in a new Prime Minister, their arch enemies seem hell-bent on ensuring Theresa May will face no meaningful opposition in parliament. With their leadership contest up and running, Labour are now committed to a summer of in-fighting that could well destroy the party. […]

  • Are these the 10 names on Trump’s VP shortlist?

    With confirmation that Hillary Clinton will not be indicted and with a few days until the long-winded plans to strip Donald Trump from the Republican nomination are almost certainly defeated, the big story involves their respective VP picks. Trump goes first in Cleveland next week and speculation continues to circle about numerous candidates, even at […]

  • For once, we can trust the Tory favourites

    I’ve recently announced two new positions on the Tory leadership on Twitter. New bet on #Toryleadership: 100 units on Theresa May @ 1.45. Explanation to follow soon! — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) July 5, 2016 #Toryleadership bet update: Closing out earlier 15 unit lay of Andrea Leadsom @ 4 at the same price. No need, given […]

  • Portfolio updates for Brexit, Tory & Labour markets

    At the end of a week which, I’m sure we can all agree was like no other any Brit can remember, let’s settle up and review our various positions and the situation moving forward. First, the good news. Brexit worked out very well. The published portfolio yielded 76 units profit and after two in-play cover […]

  • Boris must be regarded the Tory front-runner

    Favouritism for the Conservative Leadership race has been switching back and forth between Boris Johnson and Theresa May all day. At one stage May went down to 2.34 (43%) but tonight Johnson is back in front at 2.3 (43%) to her odds of 3.1 (32%). I think this is right, and managed to jump aboard […]

  • Next Tory leader market points to Boris v May

    Political bettors have never had it so good. No sooner have we drawn breath, following the most significant vote in living memory and the biggest market in political betting history, than we are presented with concurrent leadership contests for the two biggest posts in UK politics. The facts we know are literally changing by the […]

  • Who would replace Jeremy Corbyn?

    As the Brexit fallout continues to reverberate through British politics, the Labour Party stands on the brink of a destructive, potentially life-threatening civil war. On the latest count, 21 Shadow Cabinet members have resigned and a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn seems certain to trigger a leadership contest. This morning, the Labour leader […]

  • Brexit betting and verdict: Narrow win for REMAIN

    When the referendum campaign began, I recommended one bet, on a narrow preference for the status quo, with REMAIN getting between 50.01 and 55% of the vote share. Specifically, by a margin of 52-48. On the eve of our most significant vote in living memory, I’m standing by that prediction and making no changes to […]

  • Stop Trump plot thickens with rules committee picks

    A further significant development in the Republican nomination saga. We now know who will comprise the party’s Rules Committee, which will meet on July 14th to lay out the rules governing their convention four days later. They have the power to kill any Stop Trump moves stone dead, or bring them to life. It is a […]

  • As REMAIN strengthens, will the market be proved right again?

    It would appear that, three days out from the EU Membership Referendum, the market is taking a definitive view. REMAIN has never ceded favouritism but, in the middle of last week, looked as though it might. However a slew of positive polling news for REMAIN and a popular sense that the mood was inching back […]

  • Is this how the GOP plan to ditch Donald Trump?

    Against a backdrop of never ending controversy and catastrophic poll numbers, we’ve been waiting to see if and how Donald Trump’s enemies would try to stop him at the convention. We may now have an answer to both. First, Paul Ryan said that House Republicans must go with their conscience when deciding whether to support […]

  • Brexit update: Time to cover on Leave

    Following weeks of big stakes on betting markets without that much volatility, exciting things are definitely afoot. Polls clearly identify a shift in favour of LEAVE and, despite daily waves of resistance, it is moving closer by the minute to REMAIN, the longstanding favourite. This is a very positive development for my various betting positions, […]

  • Seven potential VP picks for Hillary Clinton

    Now Hillary Clinton has passed the threshold to secure the Democrat nomination, betting focus shifts to her choice of running mate. In last week’s piece for Betfair, I weighed up the chances of seven possible vice presidential candidates. Bernie Sanders – Odds 12.0 While Hillary Clinton’s long-term focus is on Donald Trump, a more pressing concern […]

  • Could the GOP still block Donald Trump?

    Just a week ago, Donald Trump’s improbable bid to be president was looking likelier than ever. Senior Republicans were uniting around him and his poll deficit was closing fast. Hillary Clinton drifted out to 1.58 in the Next President market. Now, after just a small taste of what his campaign will look like, the handwringing has […]

  • Why I’m backing Tom Perez for VP

    The art of betting on politics, (or pretty much anything for that matter), is being able to cut through the froth. And there seems to be more froth around than usual this cycle. Granted, some of that froth turned out to be serious – like a reality TV star with no political experience, ground game […]

  • Clinton on the brink of victory but can she unite Democrats?

    Next Tuesday, arguably the most memorable primary season in the history of US politics will draw to a conclusion. Whereas the term ‘Super Tuesday’ is normally associated with the slew of key races at the beginning of March that, historically, have proved a decisive moment, the term has been repeatedly used during this cycle and […]

  • Hedge between markets for a great value Brexit trade

    Trying to find a cheap, value punt in the Brexit markets has not been straightforward. So far as the main result market is concerned, the scope for short-term trading has been limited and taking a confident view involves a sizeable risk, in a referendum which is far from clear cut. Remain, for example, has traded […]

  • 7 potential VP picks for Donald Trump

    With the Republican nomination secure, the next big election market involves identifying Donald Trump’s running mate. So far I’ve taken two positions, opposing John Kasich and Ben Carson for the job. Here I look at seven alternatives being reported as in the running. Newt Gingrich Dominating the market is one of the best-known figures in […]

  • The big election losers? Corbyn’s Labour enemies

    Amidst a predictably middling set of UK election results, only one faction emerged as clear losers –  the substantial number of MPs, journalists and prominent Labour supporters who are implacably opposed to Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is not going anywhere in the short-term. These results were as good as could have been expected, one year after […]

  • Reflections on that incredible GOP race

    In mentioning a profound sense of anti-climax, I probably speak for most political gamblers. A brokered Republican convention, given wall-to-wall media coverage, with endless speculation about rule changes and new candidates would have been a dream scenario, producing volatile markets and countless opportunities to bet. Yet from being rated a near certainty on betting markets […]

  • Next market: Who will be Donald Trump’s running mate?

    So after all that, the GOP race is over. No dramatic finale in California, let alone the fascinating, unique spectacle of a brokered convention. It seems incredible that, less than three weeks ago, Donald Trump was weaker on betting markets than he’d been for months, drifting out to around 45%. Even more so that he […]

  • How long can Jeremy Corbyn survive?

    There has been much talk in the USA about the Republicans committing electoral suicide and it seems the phenomenon has spread to the UK Left, with the Labour Party seemingly hell-bent on implosion. Ahead of key elections across the UK on Thursday, Labour are in a terrible place. Ken Livingstone’s suspension amid accusations of anti-semitism […]

  • Trump on the brink of victory ahead of Indiana

    A presidential match-up between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is rated likelier than ever after the front-runners totally dominated Tuesday’s round of primaries in the North-East. Clinton is now just 1.04 to be the Democrat Nominee and [1.34] to become Next President, which equates to 96% and 75% chances respectively. On the Republican side, Trump […]

  • #NeverTrump’s growing legitimacy problem

    Following his predictable runaway win in New York, and ahead of tomorrow’s five North-East primaries, Donald Trump is rated 70% likely on betting markets to be the Republican Nominee. Precisely the mark he was before a predictable loss in Wisconsin, which caused a dramatic over-reaction and slide to a trough of 44%. On that basis, we can assume that by the […]

  • Front-runners to regain momentum in New York

    When the primaries began well over two months ago, few expected both Republican and Democrat races would still be exciting betting heats by the time the process reached New York. Normally at this stage, the leading candidate is well on course to win a majority of delegates, and the latter primaries serve as a chance […]

  • Opening Brexit trade: Back a narrow win for Remain

    In ten week’s time, the UK will vote on arguably it’s most important political decision in over 40 years, regarding membership of the European Union. After considering and debating the question for 20, the time has come to bet on it. I’m still loathe to make a definitive prediction about the result. The current odds – […]

  • If you think Trump will be nominee, now is the time to bet

    Cruz and Trump’s combined odds understate their chance It goes without saying that the political leaning of US states differs, and that results will therefore vary significantly between primaries. Yet basing betting strategy on that simple, easily attained knowledge will have yielded easy profits throughout this cycle. For example, since primary voting began, the best […]

  • Is Donald Trump now being under-rated?

    If not, there must be huge value to be found elsewhere Ahead of what seems a likely defeat tonight in Wisconsin, market support for Donald Trump continues to deteriorate. At 2.06 this morning, the GOP front-runner is the biggest odds he’s been since winning South Carolina in February to become the Republican Nominee. There are good […]

  • Trump weakening on Betfair as convention drama looms

    Betfair punters are fast losing faith in Donald Trump after a terrible week. From odds of 1.4 last weekend, equivalent to a 71% rating to win the Republican Nomination, the front-runner has drifted markedly on the exchange to 2.0 or 50%. In the meantime, principal rival Ted Cruz’s odds have more than halved from 8.4 […]

  • #Election2016 betting portfolio update

    After nine months of betting, my full election bets portfolio page is getting ever harder to keep track of, so here’s some simpler profit and loss figures for the Republican Nominee and Next President markets, along with some thoughts about next steps. First, a new position, taking 8 units profit out of my earlier position on Paul Ryan at 400.0. Originally, a […]

  • Markets swing towards a contested convention

    If one takes the view that the Republican Nominee can only be the candidate who earns the most delegates from the primaries, there is a rare opportunity to make money. Either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will certainly emerge with the most delegates, yet their combined rating on the Betfair market is only 80%. Spread […]

  • Markets strongly signal Clinton beating Trump

    As one unique candidate continues to dominate headlines and divide opinion across the world, Betfair markets are delivering a clear verdict on how the Donald Trump saga will develop, and end. Trump is rated extremely likely to be the Republican Nominee but subsequently lose the General Election. Hillary Clinton is rated likelier than ever to […]

  • Arizona could be the last chance to stop Trump

    As in everything,  the gap between success and failure can be painfully thin in both betting and politics. The Missouri primaries demonstrated precisely why betting on politics can be so much fun. The combination of an updating televised scorecard alongside moving betting markets is highly addictive and there aren’t many markets where you have to […]

  • Super Tuesday 3: Bets and predictions

    On what feels like it will be the most important night yet of this election, we have ten races to predict and play. Some of the odds have changed in the meantime, but yesterday’s piece offers a brief overview. First, lets start with a bet. Back Ted Cruz to win the Missouri Primary 10 units […]

  • Super Tuesday is crunch time for the #NeverTrump movement

    Although there are many more important dates during the remaining three months of the primary schedule, two stand out as pivotal and ultimately decisive. The first is tomorrow and will go a long way towards defining the importance of the second. If you take the view that Donald Trump’s bid for the nomination is unstoppable, […]

  • Five pivotal races for Super Tuesday 3

    This year’s US Election cycle differs from the historical norm in so many ways, and not just due to unique candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Normally by mid-March, the parties would be in the process of coalescing around an overwhelmingly likely candidate. This time, with protest and violence at GOP front-runner Trump rallies […]

  • Next steps in the Republican race

    After months of watching the GOP civil war unfold live at the TV debates, the latest one from Miami came as something of a culture shock. On what could plausibly be the last one, or at least the last involving more than two candidates, everyone was civil and policy-focused. There was no obvious winner or […]

  • Two new anti-Trump bets as his bid stalls

    We’ve just had four more results in the Republican Nomination process, with two wins apiece for Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. I’ve been tweeting all day about it and will doubtless be writing and talking more as the week goes on. We have a pivotal primary to come on Tuesday, in Michigan. Coming off the […]

  • Will a busy weekend see more Super Tuesday style shocks?

    Four days ago, Super Tuesday produced one of the most dramatic nights in the history of political betting, with two sub 1.03 chances going down as several results proved much closer than the polls or markets had suggested. Therefore, it is perhaps no surprise to see short-odds money-buyers a little more reluctant to wade in […]

  • Kasich won’t be VP, but here’s how he could become President

    Since the outset of the anarchic cage fight otherwise known as the Republican Party primary process, John Kasich has been dismissed by betting markets as a rank outsider. That is beginning to change. After the latest debate in Michigan, the Ohio Governor is down to his lowest odds yet at 20.0 for the nomination, 40.0 […]

  • Interview for “Morning Briefing” on Sirius XM

    Yesterday I was an in-studio guest on “Morning Affair POTUS” at one of my favourite radio stations, Sirius XM, interviewed by Tim Farley. This was a particularly enjoyable interview, giving me the chance to explain my analysis of Super Tuesday. Whereas the immediate consensus was that Trump had swept the board, I argued that his […]

  • Don’t believe the hype. Trump is not dominant. Yet.

    The big stories on election betting markets this week have been (a) a series of massive upsets on Super Tuesday and (b) the ongoing uncertainty about just how likely Donald Trump is to be the Republican Nominee. As the Super Tuesday results came in, virtually the entire media bought into the same, simplistic narrative. That […]

  • Extensive interview for Nevada Public Radio

    Last week I was privileged to be interviewed in-depth for Nevada Public Radio (KNPR). We discussed how and why the 2016 US Election would be the biggest political betting event of all-time and my long-range analysis of the race. I also got to explain why I placed a $10,000 bet on Barack Obama two years […]

  • Is Texas debate the last chance to derail Trump’s bandwagon?

    I’ve long lost count of the number of Republican debates we’ve seen in this extraordinary cycle. They have all been entertaining – in ways never seen before in politics, closer to a celebrity cage fight than measured debate – and in my view, catastrophic for both the image and electoral prospects of the party. Tonight’s […]

  • Two new bets, plus trading tips: How caution and hedging make for good strategy.

    On this huge day in the US election cycle, I make absolutely no apology for keeping stakes small and literally hedging my bets. Anything less would be irresponsible, given the treacherous difficulty in predicting this New Hampshire Primary. The Republican side at least – where the interesting betting lies. I’m quite sure that the market […]

  • Rubio all the rage after Trump supporters fail to turn up

    Yet again, opinion polls have been proved spectacularly wrong in a major political betting event. Yet again, odds-on backers were taught a lesson about trying to buy money in US primary elections. Monday’s Iowa Caucuses turned the Republican Nomination race on it’s head and, after a photo-finish, set the Democrat race up for a fascinating […]

  • New bet on Marco Rubio for President: Here’s why.

    We’re already on Ted Cruz to be the Republican nominee. Backing Marco Rubio now is the perfect cover. As promised when advising this bet on Twitter yet, some more detailed reasoning. Even after banking a profit from my initial position on Cruz, he could net a further 250 units profit. It makes perfect sense to cover […]

  • Iowa Caucus Verdict: Oppose odds-on favourite Donald Trump

    He has defied all expert opinion and conventional wisdom since the beginning of this race six months ago. One by one, rivals that challenged him have been abused and ended up worse for wear. He has the media dancing to his tune and gives the impression that he could be rewriting the rules of political […]

  • Iowa flip-flop shows perils and potential of primaries betting

    After another bad week for one-time runaway Iowa Caucus favourite Ted Cruz, the betting flip-flop is complete. Donald Trump is now down to 1.6, rated a 63% chance to win the opening stage of the Republican primary process. In the Democrat race, Hillary Clinton is forecast to withstand the Bernie Sanders surge at odds of […]

  • The 10 best political betting heats of all-time

    As the global betting industry evolves, ever more diverse markets are coming on stream, involving subject matters worlds apart from the racetrack, roulette wheel or football stadium. To some, politics is a matter of life or death. To others, its a golden opportunity to make money from predicting elections, leadership contests or even which currency […]

  • US Primaries Tour: Radio interviews

    Throughout my tour of the USA, I’m constantly doing radio interviews. Here’s a selection of them. As I receive copies, all are being added on here.   Forward Thinking Radio with Jonathan Aberman, at Sirius XM, Washington DC, Jan 17th http://www.leftjabradio.com/2016/01/17/paul-krishnamurty/   The Steve Hexom Show, for KBUR, Iowa, Jan 18th http://chirb.it/qHzKIy   1 hour […]

  • New bet: Bank a small profit on Cruz, while leaving big profits available

    Time to take the risk out of GOP positions and guarantee a small profit on Cruz  In a long election with many twists and turns – plenty of which have already occured before the primaries have even started – the key to making money is timing. As candidates rise and fall, we must try to […]

  • New position: Lay back Sanders, leave risk free bet

    One new bet to advise – as per my advice on Twitter from this morning. So, what I’m doing here is taking all the risk out of the Bernie Sanders bet advised last week, when his odds were 24. By selling or laying back the 15 unit stake, no money can be lost on the […]

  • Next Conservative Leader: Lay George Osborne. Fast!

    With much of his party on the verge of open revolt as Britain’s referendum on EU membership nears, David Cameron felt the need this weekend to stress that if the country votes to leave against what are now obviously his wishes, rather than resign, he would try and make it work. We don’t know the […]

  • New position: Simple maths make Bernie a great trade

    New Hampshire progress means Sanders’ current odds are all wrong Two essential components of successful gambling, (trading is a more accurate term), are timing and the ability to do basic maths. Get those two things right and one need not necessarily predict winners. That is the logic behind my latest position on the U.S. Election, […]

  • Six political betting markets to watch in 2016

    2016 looks set to be the biggest year in political betting history, with the US Presidential Election taking centre-stage plus various big contests in the UK. Here, for @BetfairExchange, I look forward to six particularly exciting markets. US Presidential Election – Republican Nominee There’s no question which country’s politics will produce the most betting action during 2016. […]

  • Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn show outsiders are in fashion

    Party elites and mainstream media have lost touch with grassroots opinion  Besides the fact they dominated headlines on either side of the Atlantic during 2015, few observers of UK and US politics will find much in common between Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn. Especially if they support either of them. However, regardless of the stark differences […]

  • Why I’m not taking the Ted Cruz profit just yet

    Texas Senator has momentum and remains under-priced on betting markets  If you’re following my portfolio of bets on the US elections, you may be wondering why there’s been no new bets advised since backing Ted Cruz for the second time to be the Republican Nominee, four weeks ago. In short, I’m biding my time, very […]

  • Political betting on the US Election: Complete portfolio

    All bets to be listed here. Click the link on each bet for the original advice and reasoning Backed Scott Walker for Next President 4 units @ 26 (4%) Laid Scott Walker for Next President 3 units @ 32 (3%)  (1 unit loss overall on Walker) Backed Ben Carson for Next President 4u @ 65 […]

  • Five reasons why Ted Cruz is the best current bet

    1) Cruz is well-positioned in the polls for when the field whittles down The picture regarding who will be the Republican Nominee remains as unclear as ever, with 15 candidates still in the race. The crowded field has worked to the advantage of outsiders, whose pitch is that bit more interesting and newsworthy than conventional […]

  • Will the London Mayor be decided by personality or party?

    What happens when neither main candidate is extremely famous already? Unless something dramatic occurs to produce some sort of party leadership contest in the meantime, the next big political betting event in the UK is next May’s London Mayoral Election. In the absence of a significant third candidate, the betting is naturally dominated by Labour’s […]

  • In order to become Tory leader, Osborne must defy betting history

    No early favourite has ever won a Conservative Party leadership contest Since masterminding a famous election victory, George Osborne has soared in the betting to be the Next Conservative Party leader. From 9.4 (11%)  when I tipped him in March, the Chancellor is now the clear 2.8 favourite, rated a 35% chance. However political historians will confirm that […]

  • 7 reasons why Jeb Bush won’t win the Republican Nomination

    With an enormous election war chest, winning record and instant name recognition, Jeb Bush has been red-hot favourite on Betfair for the Republican Nomination ever since declaring. Paul Krishnamurty, however, believes his bid is ultimately doomed, for the following seven reasons. 1) Early favourites in recent GOP contests have a terrible record Betting markets have […]

  • Is Corbyn Labour’s saviour or suicide note?

    UK politics enters unchartered territory Wherever one stands on the ideological spectrum, or indeed whether one regards that spectrum to be a distraction from our goal of making money via betting on politics, we should all be able to agree about one simple fact. Jeremy Corbyn becoming leader of the Labour Party has just made […]

  • Trade on politics, just like the stock market!

    Political betting is about a lot more than simply predicting the eventual winner of an election. A wide range of markets are live on betting exchanges such as Betfair throughout the entire race, with odds fluctuating by the second in response to market sentiment. Therefore money can be made simply by predicting the trajectory of an […]

  • Political Betting on the 2016 US Election!

    Earlier this summer, I was privileged to be the guest on a superb pilot political talk show, The Cheat Sheet, presented by Melissa Caen of CBS KPIX 5. In this short film, we discuss the concept of political betting, past trends regarding US elections and my early views about 2016. I should point out at […]

  • Beware overhyped, early GOP favourites

    Will Jeb prove to be another dodgy Republican favourite? Thanks in no small part to Donald Trump, the 2016 Election campaign has become big news even earlier than usual. 11 candidates, (out of 16 left in the field), will debate in California tomorrow, suggesting the most open race in history. The fundamental challenge facing 14 […]