This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 12th January
With primary season less than a month away, the 2020 US Election is underway in earnest, There have of course been numerous Democrat debates already but none carries anything like the importance of Tuesday’s six-way debate in Iowa, which will host the opening caucuses on February 3rd.
Six candidates will be on the debate stage in Des Moines – which UK viewers can view live on CNN (Sky Channel 506). In order of their odds for the Democrat Nomination – Bernie Sanders [3.35], Joe Biden [3.5], Elizabeth Warren [8.2], Pete Buttigieg [14.0], Amy Klobuchar [70.0] and Tom Steyer [110.0].
This weekend’s latest poll from the Des Moines Register – regarded as the gold standard for Iowa – confirmed the importance of making an impact to this particular audience. Sanders leads on 20% but critically, more than half of Iowans are either undecided or open to switching. The eventual winner will probably need to reach 30%.
The effect on Betfair markets has been a surge for Sanders into [7.0] second favourite for Next President and [2.22] to specifically win the Iowa Caucus. The logic is obvious. He is the one with momentum and campaign energy, eclipsing Warren as the candidate of the Left. His ground game was very efficient at winning caucuses, as opposed to primaries, in 2016.