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Politics Live – Rolling Betting News Blog via Betfair
First, an update. You may have noticed this blog’s disappearance over the past six months or so. This was due to a hack. Followers of my Twitter account may have some theories about that, but, as Francis Urquhart would say “I couldn’t possibly comment.” Happily, we’re now back up and running. WordPress have made some […]
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Why We Shouldn’t Overestimate Boris Johnson’s Powers of Recovery
Berlusconi literally created a party in his own image. Trump usurped one and bent it to his will. They have real political clout, whereas Johnson is more an opportunist in the right place at the right time.
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2022 Political Betting Preview
A shock defeat in Virginia and close shave in New Jersey demonstrated how hard it will be for Democrats to retain their diverse coalition in government, rather than opposition, and without the toxic name of Donald Trump on the ballot.
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The Six Biggest Betting Heats to Follow in 2022
My view is Johnson will resign around May, after tax, NI and energy price rises contribute towards a disastrous set of local election results.
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North Shropshire By-Election: Has the market over-estimated Tory troubles?
The race for second was frequently close. The Lib Dems were second during the Thatcher/Major years, peaking with 31.6% in 1983…That sideshow may be more relevant to Thursday’s outcome than first appears.
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Boris Johnson Betting: Tory Conference feels a long way off for a PM under siege
The safest bet is the 2022 option. Why? Because generally after a leader stands down, they stay in post throughout the subsequent leadership contest. That could take three months.
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What on Earth is Happening in North Shropshire?
It smacks of the 2019 general election, when attempts to co-ordinate Labour and Lib Dem tactical votes proved farcical.
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Old Bexley and Sidcup By-Election Betting Preview – The Political Gambler
There is a theory that Labour will flood the area with activists, given the close proximity to London. I simply can’t see how that would cut through their fundamental weaknesses.
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Latest Boris Johnson Exit Odds: Is Boris on the Brink?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 23rd November 2021 Boris Johnson’s bad month goes from worse to terrible and Betfair markets are responding. The Prime Minister is now around evens to no longer be Conservative leader by 2024 and the odds about a 2022 exit are down to [3.45] – equivalent to a 29% […]
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UK By-Elections Betting: North Shropshire far likelier to produce an upset
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 17th November 2021 Just as British politics gets interesting, as Labour register a series of poll leads for the first time under Keir Starmer’s leadership and Boris Johnson’s position becomes shakier than ever, we have a couple of by-elections. First in Old Bexley and Sidcup on 2 December, […]