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The Polling Station: Trump Runs Again
What a year it has been in the world of political betting. Hopefully those following us will have profited from Boris Johnson leaving office early (predicted consistently on these pages too).
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Politics Live Update: UK government rocked by worsening economic crisis
Today’s update concerns more terrible economic news and political fallout for Liz Truss’ government, in the wake of their controversial mini-budget. There is much speculation that Truss and/or her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will be forced out of their jobs imminently, and a wide range of betting markets around those subjects. My instinct is that Kwarteng […]
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Our New Political Betting Show – Get Out The Bet!
Exciting news! This week saw the launch of my latest project – a brand new weekly show covering political betting – alongside two excellent co-presenters, Melissa Caen and Patrick Everson. We will be mostly US focused, but also cover the big international elections and markets. Every week we’ll be analysing market moves, with a special […]
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Will Truss survive to the next election and, if not, who replaces her?
we are at the stage of Liz Truss’ tenure as Prime Minister where convention dictates she would get a bounce in the polls, or at least a hearing. After the collapse of Tory support under Boris Johnson, the only way was supposed to be up. Wrong.
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Politics Live Update: Two October Surprises
Then, the OPEC decision to cut oil production, representing deeply worrying news for governments everywhere.
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Politics Live Blog: Labour odds now in freefall
Today’s entry reports on five extraordinary polls released yesterday, and a dramatic shift in betting sentiment towards Labour during the past seven days, since Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.
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Keir Starmer’s textbook opposition strategy looks vindicated
In that sense, he’s following in the footsteps of the previously successful opposition leader, Tony Blair. The parallels with the 1990s, Black Wednesday and Tory implosion, are obvious.
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Is Liz Truss being prematurely written off?
The key to successful betting on politics is thinking ahead, trying to forecast the trajectory of events and their effect.
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Politics Live – Rolling Betting News Blog via Betfair
First, an update. You may have noticed this blog’s disappearance over the past six months or so. This was due to a hack. Followers of my Twitter account may have some theories about that, but, as Francis Urquhart would say “I couldn’t possibly comment.” Happily, we’re now back up and running. WordPress have made some […]
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Why We Shouldn’t Overestimate Boris Johnson’s Powers of Recovery
Berlusconi literally created a party in his own image. Trump usurped one and bent it to his will. They have real political clout, whereas Johnson is more an opportunist in the right place at the right time.