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Could 2023 see a new Tory leadership crisis and Boris Johnson return?
Sunak and Jeremy Hunt lack legitimacy among the grassroots. Tax rises in the latest budget are deeply unpopular and fear of revolt explains precisely why Sunak has u-turned on issues such as onshore wind and housebuilding targets.
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Extensive Interview on Political Betting with Smart Betting Club
We discussed a whole range of issues around political betting. How to find angles. Tips on how to analyse markets and avoid making mistakes. I discussed numerous previous elections and betting strategies
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Politics Live Update: Trump 2024 odds in freefall as troubles pile up
In my latest update for Betfair’s Politics Live blog, I focus on the betting for the 2024 US Presidential Election, and in particular, the rapidly fading chances of Donald Trump being re-elected. Long-term readers will already know I’ve always been very cold – freezing, even – on his chances. The betting has been moving that […]
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Should We Bet on the Mandelson Dim Supper Forecasts?
I’m at complete odds with the entire panel and rate No Overall Majority a cracking bet (or trade) at [2.58].
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The Polling Station: Trump Runs Again
What a year it has been in the world of political betting. Hopefully those following us will have profited from Boris Johnson leaving office early (predicted consistently on these pages too).
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Politics Live Update: UK government rocked by worsening economic crisis
Today’s update concerns more terrible economic news and political fallout for Liz Truss’ government, in the wake of their controversial mini-budget. There is much speculation that Truss and/or her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will be forced out of their jobs imminently, and a wide range of betting markets around those subjects. My instinct is that Kwarteng […]
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Our New Political Betting Show – Get Out The Bet!
Exciting news! This week saw the launch of my latest project – a brand new weekly show covering political betting – alongside two excellent co-presenters, Melissa Caen and Patrick Everson. We will be mostly US focused, but also cover the big international elections and markets. Every week we’ll be analysing market moves, with a special […]
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Will Truss survive to the next election and, if not, who replaces her?
we are at the stage of Liz Truss’ tenure as Prime Minister where convention dictates she would get a bounce in the polls, or at least a hearing. After the collapse of Tory support under Boris Johnson, the only way was supposed to be up. Wrong.
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Politics Live Update: Two October Surprises
Then, the OPEC decision to cut oil production, representing deeply worrying news for governments everywhere.
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Politics Live Blog: Labour odds now in freefall
Today’s entry reports on five extraordinary polls released yesterday, and a dramatic shift in betting sentiment towards Labour during the past seven days, since Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.