New markets for the 2024 US Election now live at betonline.ag

New markets for the 2024 US Election now live at betonline.ag

As some readers will already know, one of my roles is now as a betting consultant for betonline.ag. In particular, creating political betting markets and setting the lines.

With the November elections over, we’ve begun to expand our lines for the 2024 US Presidential Election. In addition to the winner and nominees for the respective parties, we’re now offering odds on the party leaders double.

However I want to focus here on a new idea, and to clarify the rules. I’ve set up a series of head-to-head match-ups to progress further in the election. Note this is *not* merely a hypothetical match-up on the general election. Both candidates do not need to participate in either the general election or primaries.

How ‘To Progress Further Match-Ups’ Work

Rather, the result will be settled on the share of the vote that candidates receive in the general election. They must be on that ballot – write-in votes will not count.

If neither candidate is on the general election ballot, the next stage of the settlement process returns to the earlier primaries. If neither were on the ballot of the opening contest of the party primaries – usually that is the Iowa Caucus – bets will be void.

If only one of them made that primary ballot, they will be deemed the winner. If both made it, the candidate with the higher share of the vote in their respective race wins.

This, I must say, is extremely challenging to price up! Much more so than a conventional race. Take the Andrew Yang v Ron DeSantis match-up. If RDS is the Republican candidate, -110 (1.91) would be the value bet of all-time. However he may well not be the candidate, whereas Yang now has his own minor party and in my view, will likely run.

Likewise, how to price Ted Cruz versus Bernie Sanders? Few rate either man’s chances of winning the presidency but both have been runner-up in primaries before. And both could very plausibly run, were Trump and Biden not involved in the race.

We’re offering -150 (1.67) about Cruz, +110 (2.1) for Sanders.

Plus of course we have match-ups involving the three great unknown questions in US politics. Will Trump run again? Will Biden and if not, will Kamala Harris be a shoe in for the Democrat nomination?

I’ve installed Trump as -130 and -150 favourite respectively against the pair.

What do you think? Any questions, or if you just want to chat about these markets, feel free to message me on Twitter. My handle is @paulmotty


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