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The Polling Station: Trump Runs Again
What a year it has been in the world of political betting. Hopefully those following us will have profited from Boris Johnson leaving office early (predicted consistently on these pages too).
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US Midterm Elections: Final predictions and markets to follow in-play
The full article is available, free of charge, at betting.betfair.com This is a huge day in US politics, with voting underway for the Senate and House of Representatives. At stake, control of Congress at a pivotal moment in US and world history. It has profound implications for Joe Biden’s presidency and re-election chances in 2024. […]
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US Midterms Betting Preview and Tips
This piece first appeared at casino.org on 1st November 2022 Which Elections Are On And What Betting Is Available? 35 races for the US Senate. Most are very one-sided, which is reflected in the betting. At most, 10 are competitive and we can probably whittle that down to seven. They are Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, […]
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Politics Live Blog: Labour odds now in freefall
Today’s entry reports on five extraordinary polls released yesterday, and a dramatic shift in betting sentiment towards Labour during the past seven days, since Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.
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US Mid-Term Elections Betting Preview
The states in play are relatively favorable to Democrats – an exact reversal of 2018, when Republican Senators defied the Blue Wave at House level.
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2024 US Election Betting: Will History Repeat Itself?
This article first appeared at casino.org on 24th January 2022 The finale is 33 months away but the biggest market in world betting is already heating up. £1.6BN was traded on Betfair when Donald Trump and Joe Biden faced off in 2020, smashing the previous all-time record – set by Trump and Hillary Clinton in […]
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Why We Shouldn’t Overestimate Boris Johnson’s Powers of Recovery
Berlusconi literally created a party in his own image. Trump usurped one and bent it to his will. They have real political clout, whereas Johnson is more an opportunist in the right place at the right time.
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The Six Biggest Betting Heats to Follow in 2022
My view is Johnson will resign around May, after tax, NI and energy price rises contribute towards a disastrous set of local election results.
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Odds Moving on News of Biden’s Plans for 2024
News broke this weekend that allies of Joe Biden report that the President intends to run for a second term in 2024. If true, this has significant impact on the betting and I’ve duly updated various odds for www.betonline.ag – for whom I hold a consultancy position. First in our ‘Biden to Complete a Full […]
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New markets for the 2024 US Election now live at betonline.ag
As some readers will already know, one of my roles is now as a betting consultant for betonline.ag. In particular, creating political betting markets and setting the lines. With the November elections over, we’ve begun to expand our lines for the 2024 US Presidential Election. In addition to the winner and nominees for the respective […]