The full article is available, free of charge, at betting.betfair.com
This is a huge day in US politics, with voting underway for the Senate and House of Representatives. At stake, control of Congress at a pivotal moment in US and world history. It has profound implications for Joe Biden’s presidency and re-election chances in 2024.
Naturally, it is also a huge night for betting on politics. Betfair’s markets will go live once polls close, and betting will be available for both state and nationwide markets, as the results for each county are being declared.
At 7am Eastern Time, these were the chances of victory implied by Betfair’s live odds:
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
HOUSE MAJORITY: 93% REPUBLICAN
DEMS OVER/UNDER 200: 56% UNDER
SENATE
OVERALL CONTROL: 67% GOP
RESULT BY STATE: REPUBLICAN 52, DEMOCRAT 48 (46 as per market rules excluding Independents)
ARIZONA: 57% DEMOCRAT
PENNSYLVANIA: 58% REPUBLICAN
GEORGIA: 62% REPUBLICAN
NEVADA: 68% REPUBLICAN
NEW HAMPSHIRE: 68% DEMOCRAT
WISCONSIN: 89% REPUBLICAN
OHIO: 90% REPUBLICAN
GOVERNORS
WISCONSIN: 67% REPUBLICAN
NEVADA: 81% REPUBLICAN
ARIZONA: 83% REPUBLICAN
GEORGIA: 91% REPUBLICAN
KANSAS: 54% DEMOCRAT
OREGON: 61% DEMOCRAT
MICHIGAN: 82% DEMOCRAT
NEW MEXICO: 84% DEMOCRAT
MINNESOTA: 90% DEMOCRAT
PENNSYVLANIA: 92% DEMOCRAT
So, the betting signals are clear enough but plenty of uncertainty remains. The Republicans will win the House, but control of the Senate remains very much in-play. Here’s my take.
As a broad analysis, I simply can’t see how this is a good night for the Democrats. They are 4-5% down on the generic ballot on their position when winning the House 222-213.
As incumbents of the White House, all recent history points to a negative reaction, especially with inflation high and Biden’s approval ratings languishing around 42%. They trail Republicans on the key policy indicators – crime and economy. It should all point to a red wave.
Senate still very much in-play
However, we saw in 2018 that the narrative that emerges from the House is not necessarily reflected by the Senate results. Remember, only 35 of the 50 states have Senate races, compared to all 435 House districts.
Last time, with Donald Trump as President, the Democrats scored a ‘blue wave’, gaining 42 seats in a 235-199 victory. Yet they went backwards in the Senate, because the key states in-play showed a different trend.
Again, if polling is to be believed, the Senate remains firmly in Democrat sights and could very much save the night for Biden. I expect the night to be dominated by five, close Senate races – Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire.
Once polls close and the betting goes live in-running, it is easy to imagine favouritism flipping at least once in any of those five. My prediction is Republicans to win Nevada and Georgia, with the latter needing a run-off, and the other three going Democrat. That would produce a 51-49 win for the GOP.
Click here to read the full article, free of charge, at betting.betfair.com