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The Polling Station: Trump Runs Again
What a year it has been in the world of political betting. Hopefully those following us will have profited from Boris Johnson leaving office early (predicted consistently on these pages too).
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Get Out The Bet E6: Midterm elections review
Out today, I look back at the midterms results (or state of play) with Melissa Caen and Patrick Everson in our latest episode. Overall, I think these results largely vindicate our collective analysis, laid out in the first five episodes of our new series. If you would like to check back and hear how our […]
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US Midterm Elections: Final predictions and markets to follow in-play
The full article is available, free of charge, at betting.betfair.com This is a huge day in US politics, with voting underway for the Senate and House of Representatives. At stake, control of Congress at a pivotal moment in US and world history. It has profound implications for Joe Biden’s presidency and re-election chances in 2024. […]
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US Midterm Elections: Key States and Districts
As always, whilst the entire US electorate is voting for the House, the elections will be decided in a small number of key states and districts. There is betting available on all these individual races. Also, if you’re betting on which party will win the Senate or their seat totals in the Senate, it really […]
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US Midterms Betting Preview and Tips
This piece first appeared at casino.org on 1st November 2022 Which Elections Are On And What Betting Is Available? 35 races for the US Senate. Most are very one-sided, which is reflected in the betting. At most, 10 are competitive and we can probably whittle that down to seven. They are Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, […]
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Our New Political Betting Show – Get Out The Bet!
Exciting news! This week saw the launch of my latest project – a brand new weekly show covering political betting – alongside two excellent co-presenters, Melissa Caen and Patrick Everson. We will be mostly US focused, but also cover the big international elections and markets. Every week we’ll be analysing market moves, with a special […]
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Politics Live Blog: Labour odds now in freefall
Today’s entry reports on five extraordinary polls released yesterday, and a dramatic shift in betting sentiment towards Labour during the past seven days, since Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.
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US Mid-Term Elections Betting Preview
The states in play are relatively favorable to Democrats – an exact reversal of 2018, when Republican Senators defied the Blue Wave at House level.
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US Mid-Terms: How to cash in on an improving Democrat position
Note that betting markets have an extraordinarily good record in state races, whether mid-terms or presidential elections. Upsets are extremely rare.
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The Six Biggest Betting Heats to Follow in 2022
My view is Johnson will resign around May, after tax, NI and energy price rises contribute towards a disastrous set of local election results.