• US Midterm Elections: Final predictions and markets to follow in-play

    The full article is available, free of charge, at betting.betfair.com This is a huge day in US politics, with voting underway for the Senate and House of Representatives. At stake, control of Congress at a pivotal moment in US and world history. It has profound implications for Joe Biden’s presidency and re-election chances in 2024.…

  • US Midterm Elections: Key States and Districts

    As always, whilst the entire US electorate is voting for the House, the elections will be decided in a small number of key states and districts. There is betting available on all these individual races. Also, if you’re betting on which party will win the Senate or their seat totals in the Senate, it really…

  • US Midterms Betting Preview and Tips

    This piece first appeared at casino.org on 1st November 2022 Which Elections Are On And What Betting Is Available? 35 races for the US Senate. Most are very one-sided, which is reflected in the betting. At most, 10 are competitive and we can probably whittle that down to seven. They are Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona,…

  • Latest Betting on the Midterms

    In keeping with the growth of political betting, I can report that this set of midterm elections are well on course to become the biggest ever in terms of betting. At betonline.ag, we’ve significantly expanded our coverage, most notably to include these 20 individual races for the House of Representatives. If there’s any other races…

  • Politics Live Update: UK government rocked by worsening economic crisis

    Today’s update concerns more terrible economic news and political fallout for Liz Truss’ government, in the wake of their controversial mini-budget. There is much speculation that Truss and/or her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will be forced out of their jobs imminently, and a wide range of betting markets around those subjects. My instinct is that Kwarteng…

  • Our New Political Betting Show – Get Out The Bet!

    Exciting news! This week saw the launch of my latest project – a brand new weekly show covering political betting – alongside two excellent co-presenters, Melissa Caen and Patrick Everson. We will be mostly US focused, but also cover the big international elections and markets. Every week we’ll be analysing market moves, with a special…

  • Will Truss survive to the next election and, if not, who replaces her?

    we are at the stage of Liz Truss’ tenure as Prime Minister where convention dictates she would get a bounce in the polls, or at least a hearing. After the collapse of Tory support under Boris Johnson, the only way was supposed to be up. Wrong.

  • Politics Live Update: Two October Surprises

    Then, the OPEC decision to cut oil production, representing deeply worrying news for governments everywhere.

  • Politics Live Blog: Labour odds now in freefall

    Today’s entry reports on five extraordinary polls released yesterday, and a dramatic shift in betting sentiment towards Labour during the past seven days, since Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.

  • Keir Starmer’s textbook opposition strategy looks vindicated

    In that sense, he’s following in the footsteps of the previously successful opposition leader, Tony Blair. The parallels with the 1990s, Black Wednesday and Tory implosion, are obvious.