How long can Theresa May survive?

As her government becomes engulfed in one crisis after another, Betfair punters are backing an imminent, or at least relatively swift, exit for Theresa May. At odds of 8.2, the Prime Minister leaving post before the end of the year is still only rated equivalent to a 12% chance but today, January-March 2018 hit its lowest mark yet at 3.15 (32%). Any time during 2018 is rated 50% likely at 2.02.

According to almost every strand of political opinion, May is doomed. At best, forced to hang on through the torturous Brexit process, wielding little power over her cabinet until they resolve their differences and work out a plan to replace her. There is an argument raging over whether this is the UK’s worst government ever. Fair or not, this PM is surely having to endure the most humiliating tenure.

Tory critics continue to dominate the headlines

This morning’s crisis involved rising backbencher Johnny Mercer using the Telegraph to claim the government ‘smelt of decline’ and risked losing credibility. By the afternoon, former Education Secretary Nicky Morgan was plunging the knife, calling May ‘tone-deaf and tin-eared’ regarding Brexit. Calls persist from across the spectrum to sack Boris Johnson, which most doubt she has the authority to do so.

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