Could 2023 see a new Tory leadership crisis and Boris Johnson return?
Sunak and Jeremy Hunt lack legitimacy among the grassroots. Tax rises in the latest budget are deeply unpopular and fear of revolt explains precisely why Sunak has u-turned on issues such as onshore wind and housebuilding targets.
Will Truss survive to the next election and, if not, who replaces her?
we are at the stage of Liz Truss’ tenure as Prime Minister where convention dictates she would get a bounce in the polls, or at least a hearing. After the collapse of Tory support under Boris Johnson, the only way was supposed to be up. Wrong.
Why We Shouldn’t Overestimate Boris Johnson’s Powers of Recovery
Berlusconi literally created a party in his own image. Trump usurped one and bent it to his will. They have real political clout, whereas Johnson is more an opportunist in the right place at the right time.
The Six Biggest Betting Heats to Follow in 2022
My view is Johnson will resign around May, after tax, NI and energy price rises contribute towards a disastrous set of local election results.
What on Earth is Happening in North Shropshire?
It smacks of the 2019 general election, when attempts to co-ordinate Labour and Lib Dem tactical votes proved farcical.
Old Bexley and Sidcup By-Election Betting Preview – The Political Gambler
There is a theory that Labour will flood the area with activists, given the close proximity to London. I simply can’t see how that would cut through their fundamental weaknesses.
Latest Boris Johnson Exit Odds: Is Boris on the Brink?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 23rd November 2021 Boris Johnson’s bad month goes from worse to terrible and Betfair markets are responding. The Prime Minister is now around evens to no longer be Conservative leader by 2024 and the odds about a 2022 exit are down to [3.45] – equivalent to a 29% […]
UK By-Elections Betting: North Shropshire far likelier to produce an upset
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 17th November 2021 Just as British politics gets interesting, as Labour register a series of poll leads for the first time under Keir Starmer’s leadership and Boris Johnson’s position becomes shakier than ever, we have a couple of by-elections. First in Old Bexley and Sidcup on 2 December, […]
Batley and Spen By-Election: Labour set to lose another brick in their crumbling Red Wall
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th June 2021 At the last English by-election, Boris Johnson’s Conservatives won the Hartlepool constituency for the first time. A stunning result that defied history and laid stark the demographic trends that now explain our politics. A fortnight today, the Tories are rated 94% likely to defend Chesham […]
Chesham and Amersham By-Election: Split opposition means little threat to Tories
Chesham and Amersham…is a seat the Tories have never lost and never achieved less than 50% of the vote.