Will Truss survive to the next election and, if not, who replaces her?
we are at the stage of Liz Truss’ tenure as Prime Minister where convention dictates she would get a bounce in the polls, or at least a hearing. After the collapse of Tory support under Boris Johnson, the only way was supposed to be up. Wrong.
Politics Live Blog: Labour odds now in freefall
Today’s entry reports on five extraordinary polls released yesterday, and a dramatic shift in betting sentiment towards Labour during the past seven days, since Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.
Why We Shouldn’t Overestimate Boris Johnson’s Powers of Recovery
Berlusconi literally created a party in his own image. Trump usurped one and bent it to his will. They have real political clout, whereas Johnson is more an opportunist in the right place at the right time.
Latest Boris Johnson Exit Odds: Is Boris on the Brink?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 23rd November 2021 Boris Johnson’s bad month goes from worse to terrible and Betfair markets are responding. The Prime Minister is now around evens to no longer be Conservative leader by 2024 and the odds about a 2022 exit are down to [3.45] – equivalent to a 29% […]
Betfair Masterclass Series Part 2: Tips and Strategies to Bet on Politics
The history of leadership contests is littered with bad early favourites. A classic mistake is to overstate the importance of early polls. When members or supporters are first asked, name recognition will be uneven.
How to bet on the 2019 UK General Election
Back in March, I recommended a bet on the UK holding a General Election in 2019 at odds of +176 (7/4). That bet went to the wire before ultimately winning – the election will be held in less than two weeks, on December 12. As always it is a huge betting heat, involving hundreds of different markets. […]
Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?
A core lesson of recent times is to never take political trends and outcomes for granted. To consider counter-intuitive arguments before betting on what appears to be obvious. For example, seven weeks before the 2017 general election, there was much talk about the end of the Labour Party. They lagged 20% behind in the polls, […]
Next Conservative Leader Betting – Who will succeed Boris Johnson?
Some political betting markets never stop. No sooner have we settled a Tory leadership contest and the bookies are betting on who will succeed Boris Johnson. Who knows – with the new PM likely to face a No Confidence vote as soon as parliament emerges from recess, this could be settled within months. That, to be clear, is […]
Next Conservative Leader Betting – The top-ten candidates
Will Boris Johnson fall to favourite’s curse? The third substantial gamble in three years is underway on Boris for PM. The first, following David Cameron’s resignation, never even made the starting gate. The second, in the aftermath of the 2017 General Election, became an awful value bet in a matter of hours once it became […]
European Elections – Back the Greens to surge
This article was first published for gambling.com on Wednesday May 22nd. Barring a miracle that would confound every indicator, this week’s European Elections will deliver a historic kicking to Britain’s two main parties. How can we profit from it with the best political betting sites? The very best political betting opportunities have now gone. Those shrewdies that took […]