European Elections – Back the Greens to surge

This article was first published for on Wednesday May 22nd.

Barring a miracle that would confound every indicator, this week’s European Elections will deliver a historic kicking to Britain’s two main parties. How can we profit from it with the best political betting sites?

The very best political betting opportunities have now gone. Those shrewdies that took odds-against about the Brexit Party winning most seats early are laughing all the way to bank. Ladbrokes now rate the insurgents 1/33 to achieve that target and the last five polls show their lead ranging from 6% to 19%.

Brexit Party almost certain of victory

Nigel Farage’s party polled between 30 and 35% in all of them and I think that’s the correct range. An improvement on UKIP’s 27% in 2014 but, like them, restricted by a limited ceiling. On the basis of regional breakdowns, my prediction is they’ll win 30 seats. A resounding win but still less than half the 70 up for grabs in England, Scotland and Wales.

The remaining 40 will be shared between the Lib Dems, Conservatives, Labour and Greens, plus the Scottish and Welsh nationalists. Last week’s tip on the Lib Dems to win eight seats is no longer available and looks nailed on according to the latest polls.

Lib Dems and Greens also have momentum 

Thanks to their clear ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ stance, they are eating away at Labour’s core vote in the cities and could well finish second nationally. However they are not the only Remain party thriving on the back of Jeremy Corbyn’s lack of clarity. The latest Yougov poll had the Greens up to 11%, showing solid improvement across most regions and only 4% behind Labour.

It is important to note that Yougov are notably out of line with other pollsters. Whereas they have recorded Labour no higher than 16% in their last three surveys, nobody else has them below 20%.

It may well prove that these numbers are an outlier but Yougov have been known to excel in minor elections and they have surveyed far bigger numbers than their rivals. The last two poll samples were 9260 and 7192, compared to an industry norm around 2000.

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