-
Four scenarios that could produce a snap general election
This piece was first published on February 28th 2019 for www.casino.org Last month, I explained how Brexit – and the convoluted parliamentary process of delivering it – was generating countless political betting markets. With just 39 days until the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, nobody is any clearer how or if it will happen…
-
Next Conservative Party Leader – The Top Ten Rankings
I first wrote this piece six weeks ago. All the rankings and reasoning still apply! Following the legalisation of betting shops in the UK, the first political market to capture public attention was the 1963 contest to become the next Conservative Leader. The favourite Rab Butler was turned over by Alex Douglas-Home – starting a…
-
Who Would Win a Snap General Election?
Literally nobody knows where politics is heading. One way or another, voters may well be called to the polls at some point in 2019. With the odds at political betting sites about a second referendum drifting, a general election seems likelier. Labour want one, are committed to pursuing it and have been on an election footing since…
-
No Deal Brexit is now rated likelier than ever
Wouldn’t it be nice to have some answers to all the Brexit questions we’ve been asking forever? Will it happen and if so, on time? If not, will there be a second referendum or a snap election? Yesterday’s famous day of amendments in parliament was meant to at least start to resolve them. It didn’t.…
-
A 2019 election may be Theresa May’s only option
Once again, we start the week wondering whether it could be Theresa May’s last in office. The PM will present her Plan B – to the plan that lost by a historic 230 votes – to parliament. If weekend reports are accurate, no meaningful changes will be ensure little or no progress. New amendments set…
-
What next after Parliament delivers historic defeat to May’s deal?
To nobody’s surprise, the first reading of the Withdrawal Agreement was comprehensively trounced on Tuesday night as Theresa May’s government suffered the worst defeat in parliamentary history. On Wednesday, the process which we’ve been speculating about for months gets underway as the government faces a No Confidence Vote at 13:00. Literally nobody knows where we…
-
Latest Brexit Betting – Five Scenarios
The Brexit clock has ticked down 25 days since my last update – leaving just 79 until departure – but the parliamentary process to deliver it smoothly has barely moved forward. Parliament ties May’s hands ahead of probable defeat Thanks to the intervention of controversial Speaker John Bercow, this week’s parliamentary drama merely confirmed what…
-
2019 Political Betting Preview – Five stories to follow
The number of betting options on politics is growing exponentially and 2019 will be no exception. Elections for the European Parliament will make big news in May and have big implications. A Danish General Election will follow soon after while Sweden – who are yet to resolve coalition talks produced by September’s poll – are…
-
Will Brexit finish Jeremy Corbyn?
Brexit may have ripped politics apart but it has yet to remove either of the main party leaders – despite no shortage of opposition. Like Article 50, though, the clock is ticking. Recent speculation has centred on Theresa May, who was matched at just 1.1 to be Next Leader to Leave and is still odds-on…
-
Theresa May Exit Betting – Three Scenarios
She has become a great survivor, defying political gravity for the last 18 months. Few believed Theresa May could maintain her position for long after losing her majority at the 2017 election and the PM has been regarded as on the brink ever since. The best political betting sites expect the saga will finally end in 2019,…