In March, I recommended a 6/1 bet on all three main party leaders losing their jobs by the end of the year. Two are gone, leaving Jeremy Corbyn as the final leg. Paddy Power now offer 12/5 (best priced with the best political betting sites) about a 2019 exit for the Labour leader.
Labour strategists must be very worried. Corbyn is historically unpopular and the party is tanking in the polls. Their nuanced compromise over Brexit looks opportunistic and convinces hardly anybody in this polarised environment. A recent poll of party members showed rising dissatisfaction.
Corbyn could well be in his final months
With a general election looming, some will be desperate to change leader and – as I see it – vastly improve their chances. However with no indication of a leadership challenge, it seems Corbyn will get his second crack at becoming PM. Whilst current trends suggest he’ll fail, probably prompting resignation, one can also envisage him being PM by Christmas and therefore secure for several years.
Any bets on his successor must consider various scenarios. Not only identifying today’s front-runners but who might be in 2024. One way of having a bet that counts in either scenario is Ladbrokes market on their gender. Ladbrokes offer the same 10/11 oddsabout either male or female.
If it were held today, before an election or Brexit, the front-runners would likely mirror the bookmakers list. Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry are the obvious senior Shadow Cabinet members and led that poll of party members. But if the race takes place following an election defeat, many more could come into the argument.