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Will Truss survive to the next election and, if not, who replaces her?
we are at the stage of Liz Truss’ tenure as Prime Minister where convention dictates she would get a bounce in the polls, or at least a hearing. After the collapse of Tory support under Boris Johnson, the only way was supposed to be up. Wrong.
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Politics Live Blog: Labour odds now in freefall
Today’s entry reports on five extraordinary polls released yesterday, and a dramatic shift in betting sentiment towards Labour during the past seven days, since Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.
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Keir Starmer’s textbook opposition strategy looks vindicated
In that sense, he’s following in the footsteps of the previously successful opposition leader, Tony Blair. The parallels with the 1990s, Black Wednesday and Tory implosion, are obvious.
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Old Bexley and Sidcup By-Election Betting Preview – The Political Gambler
There is a theory that Labour will flood the area with activists, given the close proximity to London. I simply can’t see how that would cut through their fundamental weaknesses.
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UK By-Elections Betting: North Shropshire far likelier to produce an upset
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 17th November 2021 Just as British politics gets interesting, as Labour register a series of poll leads for the first time under Keir Starmer’s leadership and Boris Johnson’s position becomes shakier than ever, we have a couple of by-elections. First in Old Bexley and Sidcup on 2 December, […]
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Batley and Spen By-Election: Labour set to lose another brick in their crumbling Red Wall
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th June 2021 At the last English by-election, Boris Johnson’s Conservatives won the Hartlepool constituency for the first time. A stunning result that defied history and laid stark the demographic trends that now explain our politics. A fortnight today, the Tories are rated 94% likely to defend Chesham […]
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Chesham and Amersham By-Election: Split opposition means little threat to Tories
Chesham and Amersham…is a seat the Tories have never lost and never achieved less than 50% of the vote.
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Scottish Elections: Have the SNP and demand for independence peaked?
A quite remarkable 61% of Scots think Sturgeon should resign if found to have broken the Ministerial Code. That includes 40% of SNP supporters.
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Is Rishi Sunak the next Prime Minister or a dodgy early favourite?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 9th March British politics remains completely dominated by the Conservative Party. After a decade in office, increasing their vote share with each election, they continually trounce Labour in the polls. This may not therefore seem like an obvious time to be discussing a change of leadership. Boris Johnson […]
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Next Tory Leader: Who Will Succeed Boris Johnson?
“Johnson’s approval ratings have fallen along with the government’s, regarding management of the crisis. Whereas he owed his job to being an undeniable electoral asset for the Tories, he could soon be a liability.”