How long can Donald Trump survive?

This article first appeared on 21st November 2019 at

Four years analysing the betting around Donald Trump has frequently involved speculating whether, how and when this incredible story will end. My last update predicted a terrible autumn for the President, beset by multiple investigations, resulting in impeachment by the House of Representatives.

As we watch that process play out, could this be the finale, or merely another cliffhanger ahead of the next series?

Evidence piling up at public hearings

The impeachment hearings have been catastrophic for Trump from the outset and the damage predictably amplified since being shown live on TV.

Over the past week, one career public servant after another has provided bombshell testimony, confirming that the administration from the President down pressured the Ukrainian government to dig for dirt on Joe Biden and withheld tax dollars earmarked for military aid.

We have heard how former Ambassador Yovanovitch was removed from her post, told to leave the country immediately due to security fears and seen a transcript showing Trump telling the Ukraine President that ‘the woman is going to go through some things’. As she testified, Trump tweeted about her, prompting new accusations of witness intimidation.

Events are moving incredibly fast, with critical facts emerging by the hour. As I write, Ambassador Sondland – a Trump donor and appointee – is testifying, nailing the blame specifically on Trump, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Pompeo. VP Mike Pence could be implicated too.

Democrats bound to impeach, but when?

Democrats not only have ample evidence to impeach Trump, but also the political space to do so.

Polls show up to 70% of Americans believe the White House guilty of wrongdoing over Ukraine and up to 51% want Trump removed from office. As it did with President Nixon, the process has moved public opinion.

It is almost unimaginable that a Democrat-controlled House won’t vote to impeach. From 3.5 when recommended in September, the odds are now a mere 1.17 with Paddy Power. A bigger danger to the bet, rather than losing a vote, is that Trump resigns before it materialises.

We can only guess when any vote will be timed for and what other investigations will develop in the meantime. As predicted last time, Roger Stone’s conviction has released important redacted material from the Mueller Report. That evidence suggests Trump lied to the Special Counsel. Impeachment investigators are looking into it.

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