How the Trump presidency will end and how to bet on it

Nobody in politics has ever known anything quite like Donald Trump and that equally applies to betting. His entry in 2015 sparked record-breaking interest in the US election and his wild ride in office is generating new markets that would previously have been unthinkable.

I must declare a long-running interest. I’ve been completely absorbed by US politics since spending 2016 travelling the country. I predicted his relationship and position towards Russia would contribute to his defeat in September 2015, and duly lost big.

I watched the ‘fake news’ scam that forms a central part of the Mueller investigation in real-time, and have never doubted the conclusions of the Western intelligence community regarding Russian interference. From the outset of that investigation, I’ve been adamant that collusion and criminality would be exposed by an unstoppable legal process.

The road to re-election

There are numerous paths that could prevent the President from re-election in 2020, or ending his term early. They include impeachment, resignation and the 25th amendment, amongst other scenarios.

As provocative as impeachment sounds, the process is straight forward. Only one article needs to be passed in the House of Representatives. Then, two-thirds of the Senate would have to support it.

However, at the moment, there is no evidence whatsoever that a Republican congress would be prepared to impeach their own president, although the mood could plausibly change if they lose badly in November’s mid-term elections. They are the next key stage of the process.

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