Five ways to profit from election side markets

With nearly £90M matched already, Betfair’s Next President market is well on course to become the biggest political betting event of all-time. This main market, however, is only the tip of the iceberg.

For the serious political bettor, there’s a bet to cover pretty much every angle. That includes odds on every state, the percentage totals of each candidate, turnout and the margin of victory. All will be traded in-running on election day itself. Here’s my selection of the best current bets and most interesting markets to watch in the days ahead, with a view towards trading.

Clinton is tremendous value on the electoral college handicap markets

For those of us already on the long-term favourite, the last few days have been rather worrying. Opinion polls were already showing Hillary Clinton’s big lead evaporating before FBI director James Comey threw an October Surprise into the mix last Friday.

Although evidence of the latest e-mail controversy actually hurting her electorally is thin, the market trajectory seems to assume it will eventually take its toll. At 1.4, she has drifted back to around a mark last seen after the first TV debate. Disregarding the potential for a late switch in voting sentiment, though, everything we know about state polls and early voting suggests that is a value odds-on bet.

Click here to read the full article for @BetfairExchange;

4 responses to “Five ways to profit from election side markets”

  1. Some people clearly agree that Utah is a key market on Betfair. Over £1m has been matched at 1.2 on the Republicans to win (or lose) – about twenty times the average wagered on other individual state markets. i suspect this is an arbitrage play, based on the bets being void in the event of an Evan McMullin win, played off against markets where the this rule doesn’t apply or are settled in another way. It may have even been a bot at work mopping up such anomalies. Or, at least I sincerely hope they realise this, or some could be in for a rather nasty shock…

    • I’ve been travelling, will update everything soon. In the meantime check my Twitter feed for regular updates.

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