Brexit Latest – What next after Supreme Court strikes down prorogation?

The Supreme Court has delivered its unanimous judgement – Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament was unlawful. Betfair markets reacted instantly with the PM backed briefly at odds-on to cease to be Conservative Leader this year and a 2019 General Election is now rated 70% likely at odds of 1.42. To be clear though, nobody can confidently predict where this incredible drama is heading next.

The reaction from Westminster commentators, political opponents and Brexiter allies was predictable. The first group regard it a catastrophe for Johnson, the second demand his resignation while the third are doubling down, and want an election to resolve this constitutional crisis. Number Ten have confirmed that Johnson is not resigning and pressing on with his plans for a Queen’s Speech.

Parliament resumed today at 11.30am, thus interrupting the Labour conference. That represents two further bits of bad news for the PM, as it will push the Labour civil war down the news cycle and avert a planned walkout during Tom Watson’s speech. Instead all the focus is on Johnson, and what his opponents plan to do next.

A Second Vote of No Confidence in 2019 is trading at 1.45 and, in my view, almost certain to happen, swiftly followed by an election. However, don’t expect that to play out yet, not until No Deal on October 31 has been blocked. The new law demanding the PM seeks an extension does not come into force until October 19 – straight after the EU Council meeting from which any new deal must emerge.

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