Tag: Brexit

  • UK By-Elections Betting: North Shropshire far likelier to produce an upset

    UK By-Elections Betting: North Shropshire far likelier to produce an upset

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 17th November 2021 Just as British politics gets interesting, as Labour register a series of poll leads for the first time under Keir Starmer’s leadership and Boris Johnson’s position becomes shakier than ever, we have a couple of by-elections. First in Old Bexley and Sidcup on 2 December, […]

  • Extensive Interview on the 2020 US Election With Betfair Australia

    Extensive Interview on the 2020 US Election With Betfair Australia

    “Part 4 goes deep on the 2020 Election. Why I’m backing Biden and in which states he is particularly fancied”.

  • How Political Betting Went Global During the Trump Era

    How Political Betting Went Global During the Trump Era

    The US Election is a huge betting market, lasting well over a year. With sports canceled amid the coronavirus, the 2020 Presidental Election may well be the biggest single betting event of the year. To many Americans, November’s general election feels like one of the most critical moments in the history of the Republic. The […]

  • General Election Preview – Boris poised to batter split opposition

    General Election Preview – Boris poised to batter split opposition

    This article first appeared at gambling.com on 2nd November 2019. Whilst the analysis still applies, I must update developments. I’ve added the following two bets which counter-act the No Overall Majority position. (In a dream scenario, both the Tory seats bet and No Overall Majority could win!) Also, the Brexit Party are set to run […]

  • How Brexit Ends – Two Scenarios

    How Brexit Ends – Two Scenarios

    When last updating the Brexit situation and betting in September, British politics was paralysed over a process that has lasted more than three years. Guess what? It still is, although the endgame is now in sight. The most immediate, perilous problem – a chaotic exit from the European Union on October 31st, without a deal […]

  • A December general election could mark the demise of Remainer resistance

    A December general election could mark the demise of Remainer resistance

    This article first appeared yesterday, 29th October 2019, at betting.betfair.com The speculation is all but over – there will be a general election in December. The exact date will be confirmed this afternoon. A market that has seen various different months and years trade at odds-on throughout this chaotic Brexit process is finally all but […]

  • Brexit betting – A deal is done but will parliament vote for it?

    Brexit betting – A deal is done but will parliament vote for it?

    This piece was first published at betting.betfair on October 17th, 2019 It will come as no surprise to anyone that various Betfair politics markets have been going wild this morning amid the fast moving events in Brussels. Brexit by October 31, for example, has been backed in from around 4.5 to shorter than 3.0. First, […]

  • Why its time to bet against Brexit

    Why its time to bet against Brexit

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on Thursday 10th October. If we believe the media speculation, I may have underestimated a chance of Boris Johnson securing a Brexit deal. Nevertheless, even a deal would in my view only get through parliament now if a confirmatory referendum is attached. That eventuality lies behind the recommended bet […]

  • Brexit Latest – The Imminent Election is Anything But Predictable

    Brexit Latest – The Imminent Election is Anything But Predictable

    The pretence is already over. Less than a week after Boris Johnson unveiled his new plan for a Brexit deal, it is in tatters. In line with the strategy discussed many times in recent months, the British government and the EU are at loggerheads. .@BorisJohnson, what’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. […]

  • How Margaret Beckett could become Prime Minister

    How Margaret Beckett could become Prime Minister

    This piece first appeared at gambling.com on 1st October 2019. The past week in UK politics may have been more divisive and depressing than ever but at least there is one consolation. Almost every hour brings another twist to an ever-increasing array of political betting opportunities. The end of this particular parliament is imminent, but few can […]