Brexit betting – A deal is done but will parliament vote for it?

This piece was first published at betting.betfair on October 17th, 2019

It will come as no surprise to anyone that various Betfair politics markets have been going wild this morning amid the fast moving events in Brussels. Brexit by October 31, for example, has been backed in from around 4.5 to shorter than 3.0. First, here’s the latest update from the Prime Minister.

Brexiters – don’t get too excited. We have been here before. Yhis is merely the first hurdle. If parliament does indeed vote on Saturday, the deal will struggle to pass. The 2.5 about the Meaningful Vote passing any time in 2019 is still available. If it did pass the UK parliament, it must then be ratified by the EU Parliament in what would be a race against the clock to beat the current deadline. Everybody will want to pore over the legal text once it is fully published.

Johnson to ask EU to block extension

Before we consider that vote, we need clarification from the EU Council Meeting. News has just emerged that the government will ask the EU to rule out an extension after October 31 – making that vote effectively about deal or no deal.

If the EU were to agree to that, the deal would surely pass on Saturday with MPs fearing the consequences of no deal. It is far from obvious they would agree to such a plan though – especially given that they would ultimately prefer the UK to not leave and a route to remaining may well emerge on Saturday.

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