Markets swing towards a contested convention

If one takes the view that the Republican Nominee can only be the candidate who earns the most delegates from the primaries, there is a rare opportunity to make money. Either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will certainly emerge with the most delegates, yet their combined rating on the Betfair market is only 80%. Spread a £100 stake proportionally at respective odds of 1.49 and 8.0 now and, when one of that pair is confirmed at July’s convention, your return will be £125.

As the odds imply, however, it is not so simple. In fact, given that third candidate John Kasich only takes out 9% of the book at 11.5, Betfair punters are effectively saying there is a 11% likelihood of an alternative candidate who isn’t even in the race.

That extraordinary eventuality depends on whether either Trump or Cruz reach the target of 1237 ‘bound’ delegates by the conclusion of the primaries on June 7th. Without passing that threshold, the ‘winning’ candidate may lack the numbers to secure the nomination on the first ballot at July’s convention.

Click here to read the full article for @BetfairExchange

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