Democrat Convention: Biden’s Big Tent is Very Smart Strategy
“I’m particularly struck by Kasich’s support, as it is coming from a frontline politician. A former Governor of a bellwether state – Ohio.”
Five potential Republican primary challengers to Donald Trump
As if 2019 didn’t present enough problems for Donald Trump, there are indications that he is losing Republican support. Previously compliant Senators now oppose him on a range of issues – tariffs, troop withdrawals, the shutdown. Further opposition looms if he persists with plans to call a state of emergency over funding for his wall. […]
Is it time to take #RecallTrump seriously?
As a gambler, one must always be mindful of talking up your own position. Of becoming too convinced by your own opinion that you can’t see the wood for the trees. I’ve been wrestling with this position for months, regarding the unprecedented, bizarre and increasingly ridiculous candidacy of Donald Trump. My longstanding opposition to Trump […]
New bets on the race to be Donald Trump’s VP
We are fast learning to expect the unconventional and unpredictable in politics, but it’s hard to remember any trickier market to play than this cycle’s Republican Vice Presidential Nominee. Quite simply, as with everything else about Donald Trump, normal rules need not apply. Normally, we would expect the presumptive nominee to pursue a balanced ticket, to […]
Clinton on the brink of victory but can she unite Democrats?
Next Tuesday, arguably the most memorable primary season in the history of US politics will draw to a conclusion. Whereas the term ‘Super Tuesday’ is normally associated with the slew of key races at the beginning of March that, historically, have proved a decisive moment, the term has been repeatedly used during this cycle and […]
#NeverTrump’s growing legitimacy problem
Following his predictable runaway win in New York, and ahead of tomorrow’s five North-East primaries, Donald Trump is rated 70% likely on betting markets to be the Republican Nominee. Precisely the mark he was before a predictable loss in Wisconsin, which caused a dramatic over-reaction and slide to a trough of 44%. On that basis, we can assume that by the […]
If you think Trump will be nominee, now is the time to bet
Cruz and Trump’s combined odds understate their chance It goes without saying that the political leaning of US states differs, and that results will therefore vary significantly between primaries. Yet basing betting strategy on that simple, easily attained knowledge will have yielded easy profits throughout this cycle. For example, since primary voting began, the best […]
Is Donald Trump now being under-rated?
If not, there must be huge value to be found elsewhere Ahead of what seems a likely defeat tonight in Wisconsin, market support for Donald Trump continues to deteriorate. At 2.06 this morning, the GOP front-runner is the biggest odds he’s been since winning South Carolina in February to become the Republican Nominee. There are good […]
Markets swing towards a contested convention
If one takes the view that the Republican Nominee can only be the candidate who earns the most delegates from the primaries, there is a rare opportunity to make money. Either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will certainly emerge with the most delegates, yet their combined rating on the Betfair market is only 80%. Spread […]
Arizona could be the last chance to stop Trump
As in everything, the gap between success and failure can be painfully thin in both betting and politics. The Missouri primaries demonstrated precisely why betting on politics can be so much fun. The combination of an updating televised scorecard alongside moving betting markets is highly addictive and there aren’t many markets where you have to […]