Tag: John Kasich

  • Super Tuesday 3: Bets and predictions

    Super Tuesday 3: Bets and predictions

    On what feels like it will be the most important night yet of this election, we have ten races to predict and play. Some of the odds have changed in the meantime, but yesterday’s piece offers a brief overview. First, lets start with a bet. Back Ted Cruz to win the Missouri Primary 10 units […]

  • Super Tuesday is crunch time for the #NeverTrump movement

    Super Tuesday is crunch time for the #NeverTrump movement

    Although there are many more important dates during the remaining three months of the primary schedule, two stand out as pivotal and ultimately decisive. The first is tomorrow and will go a long way towards defining the importance of the second. If you take the view that Donald Trump’s bid for the nomination is unstoppable, […]

  • Five pivotal races for Super Tuesday 3

    Five pivotal races for Super Tuesday 3

    This year’s US Election cycle differs from the historical norm in so many ways, and not just due to unique candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Normally by mid-March, the parties would be in the process of coalescing around an overwhelmingly likely candidate. This time, with protest and violence at GOP front-runner Trump rallies […]

  • Next steps in the Republican race

    Next steps in the Republican race

    After months of watching the GOP civil war unfold live at the TV debates, the latest one from Miami came as something of a culture shock. On what could plausibly be the last one, or at least the last involving more than two candidates, everyone was civil and policy-focused. There was no obvious winner or […]

  • Will a busy weekend see more Super Tuesday style shocks?

    Will a busy weekend see more Super Tuesday style shocks?

    Four days ago, Super Tuesday produced one of the most dramatic nights in the history of political betting, with two sub 1.03 chances going down as several results proved much closer than the polls or markets had suggested. Therefore, it is perhaps no surprise to see short-odds money-buyers a little more reluctant to wade in […]

  • Kasich won’t be VP, but here’s how he could become President

    Kasich won’t be VP, but here’s how he could become President

    Since the outset of the anarchic cage fight otherwise known as the Republican Party primary process, John Kasich has been dismissed by betting markets as a rank outsider. That is beginning to change. After the latest debate in Michigan, the Ohio Governor is down to his lowest odds yet at 20.0 for the nomination, 40.0 […]

  • Don’t believe the hype. Trump is not dominant. Yet.

    Don’t believe the hype. Trump is not dominant. Yet.

    The big stories on election betting markets this week have been (a) a series of massive upsets on Super Tuesday and (b) the ongoing uncertainty about just how likely Donald Trump is to be the Republican Nominee. As the Super Tuesday results came in, virtually the entire media bought into the same, simplistic narrative. That […]

  • Is Texas debate the last chance to derail Trump’s bandwagon?

    Is Texas debate the last chance to derail Trump’s bandwagon?

    I’ve long lost count of the number of Republican debates we’ve seen in this extraordinary cycle. They have all been entertaining – in ways never seen before in politics, closer to a celebrity cage fight than measured debate – and in my view, catastrophic for both the image and electoral prospects of the party. Tonight’s […]

  • Bet update: Taking cover as Trump nomination looks inevitable

    Bet update: Taking cover as Trump nomination looks inevitable

    There is no two ways about it – the scale of Donald Trump’s third consecutive, overwhelming victory, in the Nevada Caucus, sent an ominous signal to his rivals for the GOP nomination. The window is closing on any attempt to stop him, and the logistics of uniting behind an alternative look impossible. With that in […]

  • Politico Series Part 3: Looking ahead to New Hampshire

    Politico Series Part 3: Looking ahead to New Hampshire

    This piece was written a few days before the New Hampshire Primary. Looking back at some successful bets and my experiences in Iowa. I update market movements and developments in the race. However it must be said, I didn’t see Donald Trump winning NH by anything like his eventual margin! Click here to read the […]