We still don’t know precisely when, but a UK General Election is imminent. William Hill offer a best price of 10/11 about it taking place in October, whereas Paddy Power are best at 15/8 about a November election.
That small difference in the date is extremely significant. Indeed, punting on the result before we know the date is fraught with risk in political betting – or it can be an opportunity if correctly predicting it!
Britain readies for most divisive election ever
Britain will never have seen an election like it. Last weekend’s protests against the suspension of parliament are just the start. Our country is already divided like never before and the campaigns will exacerbate the friction.
Last month I confidently tipped the Conservatives to win Most Seats at 4/5 with Royal Panda, based on expectation that Johnson’s clear ‘No Deal’ rhetoric would unite the Brexit vote, whereas Remainer parties will split several ways. That is precisely what the polls are showing and the market has moved my way with 2/5 now the top price with the best political betting sites.
Those odds feel correct and until meaningful, contrary evidence emerges, that remains my prediction. However this isn’t a situation to be betting at heavily odds-on and I have numerous, serious doubts about Johnson and his strategy.
Johnson is losing the news cycle
Events of the last few days may offer a guide to the scale of the gulf between the engaged minority and the rest. Bar the most hardcore Brexiters, virtually every commentator has been aghast at Johnson’s early behaviour as PM.