If you thought 2016 was a freak political year, ahead of a return to business as usual, think again. Next week, the unlikeliest President in US history will take office and Donald Trump shows no sign of evolving into anything like we’ve come to expect in a national leader.
It is impossible to understate the political earthquake that has taken place or confidently predict what lies ahead. Trump has changed the rules and repeatedly defied rivals, enemies, pundits and betting markets. Yet already people are betting on him failing to last a full term. Money was matched at 4.1 today, equating to a 24% likelihood, that he would be gone by the end of 2017.
Business as usual would involve a new president coming to office with the approval of at worst half the country. Trump starts with a -14% approval rating, with just 37% favorable. By comparison, Obama leaves office with 55% approval and his net rating at this same moment in January 2008 was around 50 points net higher.