Will Joe Biden complete his term, run again or if not, which Democrat might?

This article first appeared at casino.org on Monday 13th September, 2021

In my previous article, I explained how US political betting remains dominated by Donald Trump, his family, and their next moves. Following a tumultuous month, his successor is giving him a run for his money.

Perhaps the only similarity between the two men is that, compared to other first-time presidents, their future was unpredictable from the outset and ripe for speculation.

There was never any serious doubt that Barack Obama, George W Bush or any other president since Richard Nixon would run for a second term. Let alone survive the first.

Biden Far From Certain To Run In 2024

Nobody knows for sure whether Joe Biden will run again in 2024, for which he is currently marginal favourite, priced around 5.0 (4/1) on Betfair, just ahead of Trump. Their exchange odds imply he’s only 31 percent likely to be the Democrat Nominee at odds of 3.2.

Biden will be 81 when the next election comes around. Ever since coming out of retirement, social media has been awash with accusations of senility.

A legitimate question given his age but usually the product of doctored videos and other forms of fakery. Winning the presidency didn’t end it. A substantial minority of political posters remain adamant of his cognitive decline. 

This makes the perfect market for the post-truth era.

One where both sides of an unresolvable argument can back their opinions with hard cash. Of which there is no shortage.

BetOnline report a one-sided flood of bets on Biden failing to complete a full-term, forcing his odds down to 2.35. Alternatively, they offer 1.57 that he survives until the next inauguration.

Likewise regarding the year Biden ceases to be president, 2021 and 2022 have been hammered in from double-figure odds to 6.5 and 5.0. 

Those BetOnline markets will be settled by Biden leaving office by any means, whereas PredictIt’s version specifically requires him to resign. ‘Yes’ is available to buy there at 24 cents – equating to 4.16 in fixed odds terms.  

Beware Dubious Claims Of Ill-Health

In my view, the odds on survival are huge.

I don’t buy the senility argument at all, and could point to frequent, recent back and forths with journalists as evidence.

Biden has long had a reputation for rambling or mixing up words on occasion and isn’t the first president to make such errors. It didn’t prevent him winning or George W Bush winning again. 

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