New bet: Bank a small profit on Cruz, while leaving big profits available


Time to take the risk out of GOP positions and guarantee a small profit on Cruz 

In a long election with many twists and turns – plenty of which have already occured before the primaries have even started – the key to making money is timing. As candidates rise and fall, we must try to buy and sell their ratings at the opportune moment – trading their odds like a stock portfolio.

That is why, given the impact of Sarah Palin’s dramatic, headline-grabbing endorsement of Donald Trump, this is a prudent moment to be cashing out *some* of our substantial position on Ted Cruz for the Republican Nomination. I actually tweeted this cover position immediately after her speech.

 

 

The two bets placed earlier yield a return of 400 units for an outlay of just 15 units. So by laying (or selling back) 25 units at odds of 6, we are guaranteed ten units profit on the bet, while reducing the potential return to 250 units. See the equation below.

Backed Ted Cruz 5u @ 30 – returns 150
Backed Ted Cruz 10u @ 25 – returns 250
Laid Ted Cruz 25u @ 6 – pays out 150
If Cruz is the nominee, we make 260 profit
If Cruz isn’t the nominee, we make 10 profit

 

This does not mean I’ve lost faith in the bet. It is a recognition that an unpredictable variable has just entered the equation. Tomorrow, I’ll be writing a new piece weighing the Palin effect. Given the uncertainty – I am nowhere near as confident about my long-range prediction, that Cruz will win Iowa or the early Southern states now – it would be unprofessional to carry risk and take no profit out of an excellent position.

Click here for my full portfolio of bets on the 2016 US Election.

 


One response to “New bet: Bank a small profit on Cruz, while leaving big profits available”

  1. of course like your web-site but you need to take a look at the spelling on several of your posts. Many of them are rife with spelling problems and I to find it very bothersome to tell the truth on the other hand I’ll certainly come again again.

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