What next for the Trumps and how to bet on it.

This article first appeared at casino.org on June 11th 2021

Compared to the record-breaking events of last year, 2021 has been relatively quiet on the US political betting front. Some calm after the storm and a chance for everyone to catch a breath.

With Donald Trump expected to return to the campaign trail any day soon, expect the drama to resume.

‘The Donald’ drove the growth of political betting like no other.

Turnout on Betfair rose nearly fifty-fold between the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections. It is not unreasonable, therefore, to expect the all-time record for any single betting event, £2.5BN ($3.5BN), to be smashed.

Both Donald and Ivanka popular for 2024

If you want to bet early, there are plenty of 2024 lines open.

Trump is trading in third place across the industry, with a best price of 9.4 available on Betfair. At 4.0, he’s a firm favorite to be the Republican Nominee.    

Of those two, the nominee bet makes superior sense. Whilst he remains overwhelmingly popular amongst the Republicans who will decide their nominee, Trump remains deeply unpopular with a majority of US voters.

In my view, he’d start a big outsider in a rematch with Biden.

Both bets of course involve a large amount of risk, as he isn’t certain to participate.

If you fancy Trump for 2024, BetOnline is offering 2.25 that he is listed on the ballot of the opening primary.

Its Sportsbook reports heavy liabilities here on both father and daughter. Ivanka is a 5.0 chance to run, and 28.0 to win the presidency. It also offers 5.5 about any member of the Trump family to win at 5.5.

Assuming that he intends to run, the more immediate question involves when he will announce.

Here, PredictIt offers a couple of markets on the date – prior to 2022 or 2023. Its current odds currently reflect 12% and 37% chances respectively.

My view here is that he’s in no hurry.

I don’t doubt his appetite, but the decision will probably depend on (a) how well he’s faring in polls and (b) how tied up he is with legal stress.

I don’t expect good news for him on either front.

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