Can Clinton maintain Betfair’s perfect record?

The predictive qualities of political betting markets have become an ever more salient talking point in recent years, based on a near perfect record in big elections. Since the inception of Betfair in 2001, the favourite from 100 days out to be Next President or party to win the most seats went on to win in every US or UK General Election.

That reputation took a knock when UK voters opted for Brexit in what turned out to be the biggest market of all-time but, as we enter the closing stretch of the US election, there is an immediate chance of redemption. With the 100 day threshold passed, Hillary Clinton remains an overwhelmingly strong favourite at 1.43, which equates to a 70% probability.

Those odds make Clinton the strongest ever favourite at this stage. Four years ago, Barack Obama was trading around 1.64, slightly longer than the same stage in 2008. In 2004, George W Bush headed a much tighter race. From around 1.8 at this stage, Bush even surrendered favouritism to John Kerry during the campaign and even on election night, before eventually winning well.

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