Market sentiment towards Donald Trump is shifting significantly and, perhaps more pertinently, suddenly seems impervious to the relentless scandal and drama associated with this president.
Back at the start of November, following indictments against four members of the Trump campaign, our market regarding whether or not he serves a full term in office spiked. At one stage he was rated 56% likely to leave early and 34% to go during 2018. Ever since, all market signals have been pro-Trump.
Despite having four days to digest the latest bombshell developments in the Russia investigation, those same markets have barely moved. At odds of 1.52, Trump is now rated 65% likely to survive a full-term and a mere 8.8 (11%) chance to go before the end of this year. Likewise his odds to be the 2020 Republican Nominee and Next President have both shortened, to 1.6 and 3.15 respectively.
Market trends defy the news cycle
Considering how that investigation is proceeding and everything else to happen in Trumpworld during that period, that trend sounds remarkable. In seven weeks since I last wrote on the subject, we’ve had the ‘Shit-hole’ furore, a government shutdown, Rob Porter’s dismissal, Stormy Daniels and another paid-off, hushed-up affair, this time with Playboy model Karen Macdougal. Dozens of senior officials still cannot get a security clearance.
Any one of those scandals would have destabilised past presidencies. Then on Friday, Robert Mueller’s investigation took a significant turn, naming 13 Russian individuals and 30 companies in a 37-page indictment that laid bare how Russia interfered in the 2016 election. Seizing upon the statement that this particular indictment was targeted specifically against Russians, rather than Americans who participated unknowingly, Trump immediately claimed to be vindicated and has been tweeting prolifically that it proves there was ‘No Collusion’. Even when one might expect a presidential response to the Florida school shootings, Trump used it to attack the FBI.
Very sad that the FBI missed all of the many signals sent out by the Florida school shooter. This is not acceptable. They are spending too much time trying to prove Russian collusion with the Trump campaign – there is no collusion. Get back to the basics and make us all proud!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 18, 2018