1) Cruz is well-positioned in the polls for when the field whittles down
The picture regarding who will be the Republican Nominee remains as unclear as ever, with 15 candidates still in the race. The crowded field has worked to the advantage of outsiders, whose pitch is that bit more interesting and newsworthy than conventional politicians. Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina took out over 50% of the latest Fox News poll.
For the other 12, just being noticed has been a challenge and very soon, around half that number are going to find it impossible. For the next CNBC debate, the main podium will be restricted to candidates averaging over 2.5% among six pollsters, between 17th September and 21st October.
Only six are comfortably above the threshold, and the likes of Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Chris Christie and John Kasich are all flirting with relegation to the minor stage. At 10% in that latest Fox survey, Cruz has no worries and will be one of the six that are likely to dominate thereafter.
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