The next big political outsider – Michael Avenatti for President

*Since writing this piece yesterday for Betfair, Avenatti’s odds have fallen from [100.0] to [40.0]. Such moves are typical so early in the race, when it doesn’t take much money to shift the market. I still think he’s a good value pick at [40.0] but equally doubt it will shorten up much more from here in the short-term. Keep an eye on the market in coming months – he could easily drift back out.


Three years of unprecedented volatility in politics have taught us two betting lessons. First, there has never been a better time in the history of this particular medium to take big odds about upsets. Second, Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron showed you don’t need to be a politician to win elections and that outsider candidates may even be at an advantage nowadays.

Indeed in the aftermath of Trump’s victory, all sorts of unimaginable presidents were backed to win the 2020 Election. Oprah Winfrey was backed down to 9.0 merely on the back of a Golden Globes speech. Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg was popular at 21.0 before the Cambridge Analytica scandal soiled his brand. Most bizarrely, Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson was matched down to 15.5.

None of them ever made any appeal but here’s another with much more realistic credentials and tremendous potential, at much bigger odds. When tweeting this seven weeks ago, it was merely a speculative punt at an average of 267.0 on somebody who probably wouldn’t run but whose odds would likely shorten.

In light of subsequent events and behaviour. Avenatti now rates a confident, top value trade at anything down to half his current [100.0] odds. He’s running.

The media has been hanging on Avenatti’s every word ever since entering the public arena on behalf of his most famous client, Stormy Daniels. Confident, articulate and telegenic, he has become almost omnipresent on cable news.

Click here to read the full article for @BetfairExchange

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