After a generally disastrous run ever since becoming the presumptive nominee, Donald Trump has just enjoyed a good week. Though still trailing in the polls and historically weak on Betfair markets, both of those indicators have moved in his favour. At odds of 4.0, he’s now rated 25% likely to be Next President, up from 20%.
Some relief, then, for Trump backers who must have been wondering whether he was running out of time to turn things around. Entering <strong>Labor Day</strong> weekend – historically regarded as the starting gun for the main campaign, when voters start to get really engaged – Trump’s poll deficit is not irreversible, as this analysis explains.
Nevertheless, it remains a very tall order, especially with some polls suggesting 90% have already made their minds up. At the very least, to turn around an average 5% deficit, Trump needs to significantly alter the election narrative.
This week’s mini-comeback is probably due to Hillary Clinton for once enduring a worse news cycle, as damaging revelations about her emails continue to seep out. However as anyone who has been watching will know, this is not typical of the last 14 months. The media cannot help talking about Trump, and he can’t help giving them endless material to work with. Love or hate him, Trump is undeniably interesting and his presence has turned the entire election into a referendum on him.
Not a great scenario for a candidate whose approval ratings are deep underwater, particularly among women and minorities. A belated recognition of this fundamental problem likely explain recent attempts to adopt a softer tone about his signature issue – immigration. Though not necessarily the most salient election issue, it is pivotal to Trump’s image and his main talking point.