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How long can Theresa May survive?
As her government becomes engulfed in one crisis after another, Betfair punters are backing an imminent, or at least relatively swift, exit for Theresa May. At odds of 8.2, the Prime Minister leaving post before the end of the year is still only rated equivalent to a 12% chance but today, January-March 2018 hit its…
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Trump effect looms large over bellweather Virginia race
For all the turbulence in US politics over the last 12 dramatic months, it appears opinion has barely changed. A hypothetical poll taken last week suggests a rematch between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton would more or less produce a tie, with the Washington Post concluding the former would probably win again. Considering all the…
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Markets move against Trump after Mueller’s opening Russia arrests
From the moment he entered politics, Donald Trump has repeatedly defied the verdict of Betfair markets. After what will be known forever as Mueller Monday, he will need to defy them again merely in order to see out his full term. The US President is now rated likelier than not – odds of 1.9 are…
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Win free tickets to the Matchbook Traders Conference!
We’ve got a great event to look forward to at the beginning of next month – a unique opportunity to hear some of the finest minds from the world of betting and network with a like-minded audience of gambling enthusiasts. The annual Matchbook Traders Conference has already developed a tremendous reputation and will take place in…
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Is politics now inherently unpredictable?
I was recently privileged to join a distinguished panel for the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute, at Cambridge University, discussing the future of politics. In response to the question raised by this title, here’s my essay. Politics has only become uncertain because the rules of the game have changed In order to predict the future…
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2020 US Election Betting: Who will be the Democrat candidate?
Less than a year after the most memorable election in the history of political betting, it is time to start thinking seriously about the sequel. While speculation remains rife regarding whether President Donald Trump will again be the Republican candidate or even last a full term – he’s only rated 50% likely to do so…
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Two new outside bets for Next Conservative leader
After weeks of overtly attempting to destabilise his boss and the media saturation that he knew it would generate, Boris Johnson has resumed favouritism to be the Next Tory Leader. However at 6.4, equivalent to a 15% chance, this market move carries nothing like the optimism that forced his odds down to 2.66 (37%) during…
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Centrists may be homeless but tainted Lib Dems won’t fill the vacuum
Struggling to find a talking point to take from last week’s Lib Dem conference, much of the media opted to focus on perhaps the ultimate example of what The Independent’s Jon Rentoul would call a QTWAIN – could Vince Cable become the country’s next PM? The BBC’s Question Time even devoted ten minutes to the…
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Updates on the German and NZ Elections
Fourth term looks secure for Angela Merkel Three days out from the German Federal Election, Betfair markets could barely be offering a clearer signal towards the result. Despite short-odds punters getting burnt in a series of big polls around the globe recently, they are queueing up to back Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU party at the minimum…
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For all his great PR, Boris won’t succeed May
It is good to know there are still some timeless certainties in politics. The Conservative Party will be split over Europe. The media will be obsessed with leadership challenge rumours and Boris Johnson will be doing anything within his power to generate publicity for himself. Ever since the Foreign Secretary dropped his 4,000 word Brexit…