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German Election Betting: Don’t bank on another grand coalition
For yet another illustration of how the political landscape and betting sentiment is constantly changing fast, check out the odds for next Sunday’s German Federal Election. Back at the beginning of 2017, with the world still in shock following Brexit and Donald Trump’s election, many believed that mainstream Europe and most dramatically Germany could also…
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Five reasons to back Labour for the next election
After 18 months of relentless political drama, generating the biggest ever betting markets in our medium, the summer has felt slightly weird. Sure, there are ongoing Brexit negotiations, rumours of Tory leadership bids and daily Donald Trump developments but, on the political betting front, it has been relatively quiet. That’s because long-term markets will always…
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Trump now rated likelier to leave early than not
For several weeks – roughly since the Charlottesville riots – the likelihood of Donald Trump failing to last a full term as President has consistently traded above 50% on Betfair markets. Reflecting our polarised times, in which anyone can create their own news bubble aligned with their politics, there is no shortage of confidence on…
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Could new anti-Brexit party transform British politics?
After Corbyn, Trump, Brexit, Macron and Theresa May’s lost majority, get set for the next improbable political gamble at massive odds. ‘Any Other Party’ besides the Conservatives, Labour or Lib Dems to win the next UK General Election is currently available to back around [120.0]. Win or lose, expect it to shorten. While the market…
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Why Tories should fear Momentum’s rapid rise
Piece by piece, the British Election Study is revealing the explanations behind our earthquake election, from the profile and churn of voters since 2015 to the issues that most concerned them. These most authoritative findings will be pored over by every party strategist and shape the way they respond to, or spin, policies such as…
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The tide is turning against Donald Trump
After two years of the unlikeliest front-line political candidate in history repeatedly defying conventional wisdom, expert opinion and betting markets, it is tempting to tire of asking the question. Nevertheless it may be more pertinent than ever. The Trump Impeachment Saga is escalating. In the wake of the latest revelations in the Trump Russia scandal,…
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Five ways conventional wisdom has broken down
As recently as 2014, political betting was arguably the most reliable market for favourite-backers. Suddenly it’s become a haven for historic upsets. Anyone who thought 2016 was a freak year got a rude awakening last month. Based on their respective positions at the start of each campaign, Labour denying a Conservative majority was a bigger…
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Rayner now the value bet to be next Labour leader
Back in the day when politics was predictable, opposition parties struggled to get airtime as the news agenda primarily focused on the government and it’s activities. For two years, the travails, divisions and fast-changing dynamics within Labour have defied that particular piece of conventional wisdom. Just at it seemed the narrative was turning in their…
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Next Tory Leader: The top five candidates rated
Whichever way one looks at it, Theresa May’s days as Prime Minister are numbered. Perhaps it will be soon, as furious Tory MPs blame her for the shocking election result. Perhaps she can survive for a few years, restoring her reputation by skilfully managing an impossibly split Commons and successfully negotiating Brexit. But few ever…