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General Election 2017: Final predictions
When Theresa May called this election seven weeks ago, the overwhelming consensus predicted a landslide victory. Any non-partisan voices suggesting Labour could put up a fight, let alone deny the Tories a majority, were extremely hard to find. Yet here we are on election eve and there are plenty of punters willing to stake sizeable…
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The best six Conservative constituency bets
National polls are differing wildly but all agree the gap is narrowing. Regardless of their accuracy, that is good news for value-seekers. A problem with the early betting was that, given their enormous poll lead, constituency odds about the Conservatives were extremely prohibitive. That is no longer the case. A crucial factor to remember in…
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Lib Dem demise should ensure a Tory majority
Over the course of the campaign, this election has been likened to many from the past. Inevitably, comparisons were made with Margaret Thatcher, with the early and betting implying Theresa May would even improve on the Iron Lady’s 1983 personal best – a majority of 144. Even if the Tories underperformed, their 1987 majority of…
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Gamblers are obsessed with the Trump Impeachment Saga
When it all began nearly two years ago, we all knew it would be entertaining. What we didn’t realize was that entertainment would ultimately trump politics, and the daily business of the leader of the free world would become the first global soap opera. The plot-lines are better than anything the writers of House of…
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Is Corbyn’s youth appeal a gamechanger?
One week from polling day, what exactly is the state of play? Pretty much whenever the same question was asked during the 2015 campaign, the same answer came forth – dead-heat. When it turned out to be completely wrong, pollsters that largely agreed on a daily basis were an easy scapegoat. That cannot be said…
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2017 General Election: The six best Labour constituency bets
So you want to bet on Labour. You’ve seen their polls rise throughout their campaign and believe they have momentum. Jeremy Corbyn has easily surpassed low media expectations, while Theresa May’s ‘strong and stable’ brand has nosedived during the campaign. Moreover, you’ve seen with Brexit and Donald Trump that the media and long-range betting market…
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General Election 2017: 5 dynamics to follow during the TV debates
As we enter the closing stretch, the time has come for those make-or-break TV moments, starting tonight with The Battle for Number Ten on Sky News. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will face a grilling from Jeremy Paxman and a studio audience. Then on Wednesday, BBC host a seven-way debate. This will involve the leaders…
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How far can Labour’s comeback go?
It remains a longshot, but in 12 days time the political prediction industry could be in meltdown. Donald Trump may have produced the biggest upset of all-time but even that shock would pale into insignificance compared to Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. Three weeks ago that eventuality was rated less than 3% likely on our…
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General Election 2017: Constituency Guide
Arguably the very best betting value in this election is to be found in the constituency betting. The UK is in the middle of a dramatic realignment in terms of party affiliation, with significant regional and demographic variations. I’ve selected 50 of the most interesting and competitive races, analysing each and making a prediction. Throughout…
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General Election 2017: 5 indicators of the state of play
1) Theresa May’s honeymoon is well and truly over Back at the start of this election campaign, I mooted the idea that the enormous Tory poll leads were unrealistic – a peak moment of Theresa May’s long honeymoon with the voters. After a week of manifesto chaos and sliding poll numbers, it is definitely over.…