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Trade on politics, just like the stock market!
Political betting is about a lot more than simply predicting the eventual winner of an election. A wide range of markets are live on betting exchanges such as Betfair throughout the entire race, with odds fluctuating by the second in response to market sentiment. Therefore money can be made simply by predicting the trajectory of an…
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Political Betting on the 2016 US Election!
Earlier this summer, I was privileged to be the guest on a superb pilot political talk show, The Cheat Sheet, presented by Melissa Caen of CBS KPIX 5. In this short film, we discuss the concept of political betting, past trends regarding US elections and my early views about 2016. I should point out at…
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The Political Gambler
Paul Krishnamurty, aka The Political Gambler, has been chief analyst for the world’s leading betting exchange, Betfair.com, for nine years. A politics graduate from the University of Hull, he has been successfully predicting elections since the turn of the century. In the recent Labour leadership contest, he tipped eventual winner Jeremy Corbyn when he was…
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Electoral maths justified Obama’s 2012 odds
One factor behind the excellent predictive record of political betting markets is that, whereas media coverage is driven by headline national polls, the serious gambler will analyse the race on a deeper level. The 2012 election was a classic case in point, with virtually every commentator declaring it ‘too close to call’ even on the night,…
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2012 Election: 3 reasons why Obama will win
The 2012 US Presidential Election was one of my successful political betting markets ever, as I was consistently backing Obama from the 2010 mid-terms onwards. Here for Betfair, in May 2012, I argue he is well-placed to exploit three critical dividing lines. Click here to read the full article
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Will Greece exit the Eurozone?
Political betting can be about more than just party politics, elections and leadership contests. During the summer as the crisis in the Eurozone intensified, one of the most fluid markets concerned the Greek referendum on the Euro, and then whether they would stay in the single currency. For Betfair in July, when the odds were shortening fast…
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Win or lose, Osborne’s star is rising
The Chancellor is in pole position to succeed David Cameron LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM – MARCH 19: U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne attends the launch of the National Loan Guarantee Scheme (NLGS) at a Barclays Plc bank branch on March 19, 2012 in London, United Kingdom. Osborne won the backing of all except one…
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10 reasons to take Nigel Farage seriously
The last parliament saw a dramatic re-alignment in British party politics. The Lib Dems lost two-thirds of their support, while the SNP assumed almost total control of Scottish politics. The transformation of UKIP from irrelevant minor party to European Election winners, by-election insurgents and nationwide force represented another earthquake. 4M votes at the General Election had a…
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Carly Fiorina rising fast after debate win
Businesswoman steals the show from Donald Trump From the early market reaction there’s no question about who ‘won’ last night’s second Republican debate. In line with almost universal good reviews, Carly Fiorina is storming up the markets. The former CEO of Hewlett Packard is now trading at [11.0] or 9% for the nomination, [30.0] (3%)…
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PMQs: Corbyn changes the conversation
A good start, but the new leader’s fundamental problems were clear to see It is my confident prediction that more people watched this afternoon’s PMQs than ever before. Compared to the usual, mostly ignored, often derided piece of theatre, Jeremy Corbyn’s debut was genuinely a hot topic of conversation this morning. People from outside the political…