• 10 reasons to take Nigel Farage seriously

    The last parliament saw a dramatic re-alignment in British party politics. The Lib Dems lost two-thirds of their support, while the SNP assumed almost total control of Scottish politics. The transformation of UKIP from irrelevant minor party to European Election winners, by-election insurgents and nationwide force represented another earthquake. 4M votes at the General Election had a […]

  • Carly Fiorina rising fast after debate win

    Businesswoman steals the show from Donald Trump From the early market reaction there’s no question about who ‘won’ last night’s second Republican debate. In line with almost universal good reviews, Carly Fiorina is storming up the markets. The former CEO of Hewlett Packard is now trading at [11.0] or 9% for the nomination, [30.0] (3%) […]

  • PMQs: Corbyn changes the conversation

    A good start, but the new leader’s fundamental problems were clear to see It is my confident prediction that more people watched this afternoon’s PMQs than ever before. Compared to the usual, mostly ignored, often derided piece of theatre, Jeremy Corbyn’s debut was genuinely a hot topic of conversation this morning. People from outside the political […]

  • Beware overhyped, early GOP favourites

    Will Jeb prove to be another dodgy Republican favourite? Thanks in no small part to Donald Trump, the 2016 Election campaign has become big news even earlier than usual. 11 candidates, (out of 16 left in the field), will debate in California tomorrow, suggesting the most open race in history. The fundamental challenge facing 14 […]

  • Corbyn confounds media derision with 24/1 win

    Although the profits were ensured weeks ago via a series of cover bets, today’s confirmation of Jeremy Corbyn as the next Labour leader was nevertheless a particularly satisfying moment. A vindication of my early tip, at which stage Corbyn was the unconsidered 24/1 outsider. A devastating blow for the credibility of the Westminster Village talking […]

  • Why I’m waiting for Biden’s decision

    Some believed that Joe Biden’s appearance on the new Stephen Colbert show would be the launchpad for a Presidential run, that would transform the race to be Democrat Nominee. As it turned out, the VP confirmed what was already in the public domain – that he’s struggling to commit to such a life-changing decision, in […]

  • Jeremy Corbyn tipped early at 24/1!

    SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND – AUGUST 25: Labour Leadership Candidate Jeremy Corbyn applauds as he speaks at a rally for supporters at the Hilton at the Ageas Bowl on August 25, 2015 in Southampton, England. Jeremy Corbyn remains the bookiesÕ favourite to win the Labour leadership contest which will be announced on September 12 after the ballots […]

  • UK Election films for Betfair Predicts

    As content editor of the comprehensive Betfair Predicts coverage of the UK General Election, I made a series of 13 films alongside the former Lib Dem MP and broadcaster Lembit Opik, and the political biographer Mark Stuart, an academic at Nottingham University. Here are some of the highlights. I particularly enjoyed discussing UKIP, having successfully […]

  • Ben Carson is a better value bet than Trump

    In my latest #election 2016 update for @BetfairExchange; I make the case for a bet on outsider Dr Ben Carson and to keep an eye out for the emerging Carly Fiorina. Like Donald Trump, neither are politicians and therefore able to make capital from the groundswell of anti-Washington sentiment within GOP ranks. Unlike Trump, their […]