• The race to succeed Cameron starts here

    Osborne remains in pole position but history suggests much can change As the Tories head to Manchester for their annual conference, we can expect a triumphalist mood, in defiance of what have now also become annual protests outside. Having delivered their first overall majority since 1992, David Cameron can expect a hero’s welcome. This particular […]

  • Is the Trump bandwagon grinding to a halt?

    Front-runner in GOP polls slips further behind on Betfair markets From the outset of his bid for the Republican Nomination, Donald Trump has monopolised media attention, driving record TV ratings for both debates. The Betfair markets, however, have never truly bought it and after a difficult week for the front-runner, confidence is waning fast. Click […]

  • Who benefits most from Scott Walker’s exit?

    Cruz will last the distance as rivals begin to fall away Slowly but surely, the Republican field is whittling down towards a more manageable number, with Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker the latest to accept inevitable defeat. Considering he was second favourite for the nomination just a couple of months ago, this is a particularly significant development. […]

  • Trade on politics, just like the stock market!

    Political betting is about a lot more than simply predicting the eventual winner of an election. A wide range of markets are live on betting exchanges such as Betfair throughout the entire race, with odds fluctuating by the second in response to market sentiment. Therefore money can be made simply by predicting the trajectory of an […]

  • Political Betting on the 2016 US Election!

    Earlier this summer, I was privileged to be the guest on a superb pilot political talk show, The Cheat Sheet, presented by Melissa Caen of CBS KPIX 5. In this short film, we discuss the concept of political betting, past trends regarding US elections and my early views about 2016. I should point out at […]

  • The Political Gambler

    Paul Krishnamurty, aka The Political Gambler, has been chief analyst for the world’s leading betting exchange, Betfair.com, for nine years. A politics graduate from the University of Hull, he has been successfully predicting elections since the turn of the century. In the recent Labour leadership contest, he tipped eventual winner Jeremy Corbyn when he was […]

  • Electoral maths justified Obama’s 2012 odds

    One factor behind the excellent predictive record of political betting markets is that, whereas media coverage is driven by headline national polls, the serious gambler will analyse the race on a deeper level. The 2012 election was a classic case in point, with virtually every commentator declaring it ‘too close to call’ even on the night, […]

  • 2012 Election: 3 reasons why Obama will win

    The 2012 US Presidential Election was one of my successful political betting markets ever, as I was consistently backing Obama from the 2010 mid-terms onwards. Here for Betfair, in May 2012, I argue he is well-placed to exploit three critical dividing lines. Click here to read the full article

  • Will Greece exit the Eurozone?

    Political betting can be about more than just party politics, elections and leadership contests. During the summer as the crisis in the Eurozone intensified, one of the most fluid markets concerned the Greek referendum on the Euro, and then whether they would stay in the single currency. For Betfair in July, when the odds were shortening fast […]

  • Win or lose, Osborne’s star is rising

    The Chancellor is in pole position to succeed David Cameron LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM – MARCH 19: U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne attends the launch of the National Loan Guarantee Scheme (NLGS) at a Barclays Plc bank branch on March 19, 2012 in London, United Kingdom. Osborne won the backing of all except one […]