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Next Tory leader: Theresa May looks the biggest threat to Osborne
Anti-immigration speech signals the Home Secretary’s intentions After yesterday’s confident, ambitious speech to his conference, there is no way David Cameron is leaving this job early. If so, that means the betting market to succeed him is going to last until at least 2019. Comparisons with the Tony Blair/Gordon Brown succession a decade ago are…
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In order to become Tory leader, Osborne must defy betting history
No early favourite has ever won a Conservative Party leadership contest Since masterminding a famous election victory, George Osborne has soared in the betting to be the Next Conservative Party leader. From 9.4 (11%) when I tipped him in March, the Chancellor is now the clear 2.8 favourite, rated a 35% chance. However political historians will confirm that…
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GOP outsiders remain cheap bet or trading options
The gap between polls and punditry has never been greater In what seems like the most open, uncertain election of all-time; whose judgement should we most trust? Answer that question and there are fortunes to be won predicting the result. If only it were that straightforward! Right now, all the usual indicators are pointing in different…
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Is Romney right to say a mainstream Republican will emerge?
What if too many candidates split the ‘mainstream’ vote? Having contested the last two nomination processes through to the death, few people better understand what it will take to win this year’s Republican race than Mitt Romney. Romney weighed in with his assessment of the current contest today and, largely, I agree with his analysis.…
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7 reasons why Jeb Bush won’t win the Republican Nomination
With an enormous election war chest, winning record and instant name recognition, Jeb Bush has been red-hot favourite on Betfair for the Republican Nomination ever since declaring. Paul Krishnamurty, however, believes his bid is ultimately doomed, for the following seven reasons. 1) Early favourites in recent GOP contests have a terrible record Betting markets have…
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Marco Rubio is the big market mover on Betfair
Florida senator closes in on Jeb Bush for GOP favouritism With Donald Trump on the wane and Jeb Bush stalling in the race to be Republican nominee, political gamblers have been scratching around for better-priced alternatives. Down the field outsiders Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, recommended here at around 1.5% apiece for the Presidency, are…
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Is Corbyn Labour’s saviour or suicide note?
UK politics enters unchartered territory Wherever one stands on the ideological spectrum, or indeed whether one regards that spectrum to be a distraction from our goal of making money via betting on politics, we should all be able to agree about one simple fact. Jeremy Corbyn becoming leader of the Labour Party has just made…
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The race to succeed Cameron starts here
Osborne remains in pole position but history suggests much can change As the Tories head to Manchester for their annual conference, we can expect a triumphalist mood, in defiance of what have now also become annual protests outside. Having delivered their first overall majority since 1992, David Cameron can expect a hero’s welcome. This particular…
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Is the Trump bandwagon grinding to a halt?
Front-runner in GOP polls slips further behind on Betfair markets From the outset of his bid for the Republican Nomination, Donald Trump has monopolised media attention, driving record TV ratings for both debates. The Betfair markets, however, have never truly bought it and after a difficult week for the front-runner, confidence is waning fast. Click…
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Who benefits most from Scott Walker’s exit?
Cruz will last the distance as rivals begin to fall away Slowly but surely, the Republican field is whittling down towards a more manageable number, with Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker the latest to accept inevitable defeat. Considering he was second favourite for the nomination just a couple of months ago, this is a particularly significant development.…