This article was first published on March 29th 2019
Odds of 1.86 reflect an emerging consensus amongst pundits that an election is inevitable, given the political impasse. However that could also reflect that we are no more capable of predicting what on earth will happen next. There are plenty of arguments against it.
May departure in limbo after deal loses for third time
As I write, there is news of a group of ministers descending on Number Ten – alongside the caveat that they aren’t going to demand her resignation. Nevertheless, this weekend will be even more rife with rumours than the last – which predicted no fewer than four different new PMs.
Having announced she would quit if her deal passes, Theresa May is [2.14] to leave post between April and June. Her position is completely untenable but there’s no indication she will stand down before trying once again with the Meaningful Vote.
Imminent Brexit rated less likely than ever
As for Brexit, the chance of it happening any time soon is shrinking fast. The EU’s deadline to pass the deal in time to leave on May 22nd has been missed and that could mean a long delay, or even revocation of Article 50 in order to avoid leaving without a deal on April 12th.
Nothing can be ruled out though – including the latter, despite the clear of will of parliament to prevent it. A No Deal Brexit at any point in 2019 is available to back at 3.7. Only slightly bigger than A50 to be Revoked at 3.4 or an In/Out Referendum in 2019 at 3.25. See below this article for links to a wide array of political betting markets.
Could indicative votes back a referendum?
A second round of indicative votes are scheduled for Monday, and this time something will likely emerge. Among the various options explained on Wednesday, the two realistic options are for a Customs Union – which the EU will agree to quickly – and a referendum.