Tag: Michael Gove

  • Why We Shouldn’t Overestimate Boris Johnson’s Powers of Recovery

    Why We Shouldn’t Overestimate Boris Johnson’s Powers of Recovery

    Berlusconi literally created a party in his own image. Trump usurped one and bent it to his will. They have real political clout, whereas Johnson is more an opportunist in the right place at the right time.

  • Next Conservative Leader Betting – The top-ten candidates

    Next Conservative Leader Betting – The top-ten candidates

    Will Boris Johnson fall to favourite’s curse? The third substantial gamble in three years is underway on Boris for PM. The first, following David Cameron’s resignation, never even made the starting gate. The second, in the aftermath of the 2017 General Election, became an awful value bet in a matter of hours once it became […]

  • Next Tory Leader Betting – Dominic Raab is perfectly poised

    Next Tory Leader Betting – Dominic Raab is perfectly poised

    With the news that Theresa May will imminently announce her departure date, the starting pistol has been fired on the Next Conservative Leader race. In reality, that kicked off before the final results of the 2017 General Election were in and hardened political punters are doubtless managing several positions already. It has been quite a […]

  • Latest Brexit Betting – General Election goes odds-on

    Latest Brexit Betting – General Election goes odds-on

    This article was first published on March 29th 2019 Odds of 1.86 reflect an emerging consensus amongst pundits that an election is inevitable, given the political impasse. However that could also reflect that we are no more capable of predicting what on earth will happen next. There are plenty of arguments against it. May departure […]

  • Michael Gove’s plans are falling into place

    Michael Gove’s plans are falling into place

    This article was first written on 25th March 2019 for betting.betfair.com If anyone was still in doubt that Brexit is, fundamentally, a Conservative Party soap opera, the weekend’s events surely confirmed it. As voices from across the political spectrum talked of ‘national crisis and ‘humiliation’, the Tory civil war intensified. Various ministers linked with looming […]

  • Next Conservative Party Leader – The Top Ten Rankings

    Next Conservative Party Leader – The Top Ten Rankings

    I first wrote this piece six weeks ago. All the rankings and reasoning still apply! Following the legalisation of betting shops in the UK, the first political market to capture public attention was the 1963 contest to become the next Conservative Leader. The favourite Rab Butler was turned over by Alex Douglas-Home – starting a […]

  • Parliamentary defeat could be Theresa May’s last stand

    Parliamentary defeat could be Theresa May’s last stand

    Crunch time, it seems, is finally here. After over two years of speculation – not to mention several hours during the Cabinet meeting – Theresa May released her proposed withdrawal agreement to the media last night. As the details are digested over the coming hours, the world awaits to see what happens next – regarding […]

  • How the Tory leadership race could unfold

    How the Tory leadership race could unfold

    If anyone still needs a measure to illustrate the unpredictability of politics in 2018, check out the Next Conservative and Labour Leader markets. Neither has what could be described as a hot favourite and only three candidates are trading at single figure odds. Little wonder perhaps, in light of recent upsets and grassroots uprisings, but […]

  • For all his great PR, Boris won’t succeed May

    For all his great PR, Boris won’t succeed May

    It is good to know there are still some timeless certainties in politics. The Conservative Party will be split over Europe. The media will be obsessed with leadership challenge rumours and Boris Johnson will be doing anything within his power to generate publicity for himself. Ever since the Foreign Secretary dropped his 4,000 word Brexit […]

  • For once, we can trust the Tory favourites

    For once, we can trust the Tory favourites

    I’ve recently announced two new positions on the Tory leadership on Twitter. New bet on #Toryleadership: 100 units on Theresa May @ 1.45. Explanation to follow soon! — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) July 5, 2016 #Toryleadership bet update: Closing out earlier 15 unit lay of Andrea Leadsom @ 4 at the same price. No need, given […]