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GOPDebate verdict: Rubio the latest victim of GOP cage fight
I’ve observed before how the size and brutal nature of the race to be GOP nominee is doing the party no favours, damaging one candidate after another. In the final debate before Tuesday’s pivotal New Hampshire Primary, the last undamaged figure took a beating. My main sentiment this morning is relief that I’ve only staked…
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Will a late Rubio surge deny Trump again?
Following yesterday’s advised bet on Twitter to back Marco Rubio to win New Hampshire, here’s a detailed explanation. New bet: 4 units on @marcorubio to win New Hampshire @ 4.0 (3 to 1). Will blog asap, may add more in coming days. — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) February 5, 2016 The political betting story of this…
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Iowa Caucuses night on ABC – WOI TV
Normally on this night, I would have been sat at home in the UK, up through the night, watching the results on TV whilst trading the race odds in-running. This time around, my first election night in the USA, I was invited to discuss political betting on the live results show of ABC’s Iowa affiliate…
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New bet: Rubio stake covered, leaving big risk-free bet
One new position to report, as advised on Twitter yesterday. I’ve laid back the 25 units stake from Saturday’s bet on Marco Rubio to be Next President. New bet: I've laid the 25 unit stake back of previous Marco Rubio for president bet at 4.2. Leaves risk free bet to win 105 units. — Political…
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Rubio all the rage after Trump supporters fail to turn up
Yet again, opinion polls have been proved spectacularly wrong in a major political betting event. Yet again, odds-on backers were taught a lesson about trying to buy money in US primary elections. Monday’s Iowa Caucuses turned the Republican Nomination race on it’s head and, after a photo-finish, set the Democrat race up for a fascinating…
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Betting markets still favour Clinton in Iowa
As the traditional opening leg of the nomination process, the Iowa caucuses are always a big, worldwide media story. Particularly so in the United Kingdom, and not just because of our ‘special relationship’ with the USA. Britain is a big political market and also home to the world’s most sophisticated betting industry – even more…
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New bets: Why I’m switching away from Clinton, for now
With Iowa too close to call, there’s no short-term betting mileage in our earlier bet In order to secure a profit over the long-term – and my US election portfolio has nine months left to run – one needs to switch positions frequently, banking profits where possible, and also accepting a small lose when prudent. These…
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Interview on Fox with Annie Yu
This was a short interview conducted recently in Washington DC on Fox5, discussing the concept of political betting and how the 2016 US Election would be the biggest ever. http://www.fox5dc.com/good-day/76227749-video
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New bet on Marco Rubio for President: Here’s why.
We’re already on Ted Cruz to be the Republican nominee. Backing Marco Rubio now is the perfect cover. As promised when advising this bet on Twitter yet, some more detailed reasoning. Even after banking a profit from my initial position on Cruz, he could net a further 250 units profit. It makes perfect sense to cover…
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Iowa Caucus Verdict: Oppose odds-on favourite Donald Trump
He has defied all expert opinion and conventional wisdom since the beginning of this race six months ago. One by one, rivals that challenged him have been abused and ended up worse for wear. He has the media dancing to his tune and gives the impression that he could be rewriting the rules of political…