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Next Tory Leader Betting – Dominic Raab is perfectly poised
With the news that Theresa May will imminently announce her departure date, the starting pistol has been fired on the Next Conservative Leader race. In reality, that kicked off before the final results of the 2017 General Election were in and hardened political punters are doubtless managing several positions already. It has been quite a…
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European Elections: Back Change UK for a wipeout
This piece was first published on Monday 13th May – unfortunately these luxury odds on Change UK and Lib Dems performance are no longer available. Three months ago, they were the biggest story in Westminster. A group of high-profile defectors from Labour and the Conservatives, standing for moderation, centrism and cross-party collaboration in an era…
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Poll carnage as Tory and Labour tactics implode simultaneously
Perhaps the best way to understand the stalemate since 2016 and increasingly volatile situation is to see Brexit through the prism of party political games. Decades of opportunism is unravelling Long before the referendum, criticising and opposing EU treaties was a cheap win for any ambitious politician from outside government. Accuracy, detail or the ability…
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2020 US Election Betting: Is the Biden Bounce for real?
The most significant gamble towards the 2020 US Election is underway. In the fortnight since Joe Biden declared his candidacy, the former Vice President has risen to clear second favourite behind Donald Trump, with his odds shortening from 15.0 to a new low of 6.4 this morning. Biden opens up vast early primary lead If…
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2019 UK Local Elections Review – Five takeaways
1 Tory losses far exceeded worst expectations In losing more than 1300 councillors, these results were unarguably awful for the Tories. Yes, they had a long way to fall and a backlash from Brexiters angry at their failure to deliver was predictable. But the scale defied the experts – the higher academic estimate noted in…
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Local Elections Preview: Lib Dems set to reap rewards of Tory implosion
This piece was first published on 30th April 2019. The first of two elections with the potential to blow up British politics takes place on Thursday. Unlike the European Elections which everybody expects to happen at the end of the month, winning candidates will definitely serve their local councils. Tories set for a catastrophic month…
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Trump impeachment is back on the agenda
This piece was first published on 22nd April 2019 When last updating the Donald Trump saga, following the release of Attorney General’s William Barr’s four page summary into Russia investigation, I urged caution in drawing conclusions before the actual Mueller Report was published. Now a heavily redacted version has been released, that analysis is vindicated.…
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Biden is the new front-runner but should we back him?
This piece was first written on 29th April 2019. The 19th and most significant Democrat candidate to date has declared for 2020. Amid a blaze of publicity, Joe Biden launched his presidential campaign with a direct pitch for what opinion polls suggest over half the country want. Rather than policy specifics, the former VP declared…
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Labour rated banker material for the Euros
This article was first written on 15th April 2019. It is very much an article I wish could be re-written, given that the betting has moved horribly against Labour since. As always, though, we must publish the bad bets as well as the good ones. DO NOT FOLLOW THE BET! In last week’s update, I…
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Buckle up for betting drama as latest Brexit deadline looms
This article was first published on April 8th, 2019. We’re approaching Brexit D-Day once again, with the UK scheduled to leave the EU on Friday at 11pm, with no agreement yet in place. This may seem counterintuitive given the deadlock in Westminster but the imminent developments will, one way or another, provide some clarity. Numerous…