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Cuomo gamble is merely the latest speculative punt without substance
Normally at this stage of a US Presidential cycle, we would be fully focused on a head-to-head race between the presumptive Republican and Democrat nominees. The former blocked primary challenges to ensure Donald Trump had a clear run. The latter’s primary remains ongoing but the scorecard overwhelmingly favours Joe Biden. The betting signal, however, less…
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Next Tory Leader – Should we get behind the Sunak gamble?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 27th March 2020 It should by now go without saying – politics moves fast. Can anyone recall, anywhere, a reputation growing faster than Rishi Sunak? Six months ago, the 39 year-old MP for Richmond was barely known. When Boris Johnson opted out of a ‘Leaders Debate’ during the…
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How Political Betting Went Global During the Trump Era
The US Election is a huge betting market, lasting well over a year. With sports canceled amid the coronavirus, the 2020 Presidental Election may well be the biggest single betting event of the year. To many Americans, November’s general election feels like one of the most critical moments in the history of the Republic. The…
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Does Coronavirus help or hinder Donald Trump?
As the world begins to come to terms with the shock of Coronavirus, every assumption, every preconception, has to go. That is already evidently the case with regards economics, work and productivity. So it must too with politics. It means that even I – the archest of Trump critics, somebody whom his supporters call a…
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US Election: Long-term indicators point to Biden for President
This article first appeared at Betfair Australia’s The Hub on 20th March 2020 Since I last analysed the race for Next President – before the primaries began – events have somewhat transformed the context and the betting has swung wildly. Last autumn, I was betting on Donald Trump to be impeached by the House of…
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US Election: Biden will pick a woman but beware the Clinton hype
This piece first appeared at gamblerspick.com on Monday 17th March 2020 A fortnight ago, we discussed how the race to be the Democrat nominee in November’s US General Election was developing ahead of the biggest single day of primary season, into a straight choice between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden – as the latter was rapidly hoovering…
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Will Coronavirus derail Trump’s re-election bid?
Sport may be cancelled but politics carries on as usual. In fact coronavirus is generating even greater focus on the 2020 US Presidential Election. Betfair markets souring on Trump re-election Over the past fortnight, the odds about Donald Trump winning a second term have drifted markedly. From a low of [1.64], equivalent to a 61%…
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US Election – Who will be Joe Biden’s VP Pick?
This article first appeared at Betfair Australia’s The Hub, on 13th March 2020 Following another slew of victories for Joe Biden on Super Tuesday 2, the Democrat Nomination looks all but finished as a betting heat. The former Vice President is now a mere $1.09 for the nomination and $2.28 for the presidency. Bernie Sanders…
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US Election: Biden dominant as Democrats reject divisive Bernie Bros tactics
At the risk of offending Tulsi Gabbard’s slither of support, the Democrat Nomination now appears to be a two-horse race. Within a few days, it could be over. Delegate lead exceeds Biden expectations On Super Tuesday, Joe Biden exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. He leads Bernie Sanders on the delegate count – something that…