New bet as key SC endorsements offer Rubio big momentum

New Hampshire is pivotal for Marco Rubio's presidential bid

As detailed in my latest piece for Politico, the big recent story in betting markets was the dramatic rise and fall of Marco Rubio – based on what amounts, in effect, to very little.

First the markets fell in love with Rubio after his much-vaunted third place in Iowa. Then they started dumping him, literally as he spoke, during a poor debate performance. After finishing a poor fifth in New Hampshire, his rating for the presidency slipped to it’s lowest mark since the summer, at around 9%.

Tonight, they may be on the way back, after some big developments ahead of Saturday’s key primary in South Carolina. The best news is the endorsement from SC Governor Nikki Haley, adding to a stack of key endorsements in the state, including Senator Tim Scott.

While it may not be enough to defy Donald Trump’s massive poll lead in South Carolina, it is expected to put him well clear of his main rivals in the side-race to become the only realistic, mainstream alternative to outsiders Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

Trump had been looking increasingly dominant in polls and stronger than ever after they stood up to real voting patterns in New Hampshire, although a shock poll just out puts Cruz 2% up nationally. I’m extremely sceptical about the latter numbers, despite it massively suiting my position.

Regardless of their increasingly bitter spat, both have their share of enemies and doubters in the Conservative movement. This substantial chunk of GOP voters must surely become inclined to coalesce around one candidate. With the strongest favourability ratings of any GOP candidate, and often portrayed as the most electable, that man will be Rubio.

In the week when his stock was rising, I recommended two positions on Rubio, securing a risk-free bet to win 105 units. Now as mentioned earlier on Twitter, I’ve gone in again, simply repeating the initial bet.


Now, the Rubio position risks 25 units for a potential 290 units profit. Regardless of the end result, these odds seem likely to shorten further. When they do, expect another cover bet. Keep an eye out for that and updated advice on our Cruz positions soon.



3 responses to “New bet as key SC endorsements offer Rubio big momentum”

  1. Establishment endorsements are a liability this year rather than a help . Witness NH where Hillary similarly had both the popular Governor and Senator’s help in losing by 20 . Haley endorsed Romney in 2012 as he got wiped out by Gingrich . Rubio’s big problem remains – he can’t win a single state even his own

  2. Great bet for you again predicting the narrative . Here on Predict It the bets are limited to 850 dollars but Rubio went from 9/1 six days ago to 4/1 currently . Beginning to understand your strategy of accumulating ” free ” bets . Still don’t think he’ll ever be President but would be happy to make money off him.

    • Thanks for your comments, Mark. Rubio has been a traders’ dream lately, back and forth. He’s moving again after tonights’s good debate performance, but he’ll need a better than expected Super Tuesday to justify it.

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