Tag: Marco Rubio

  • In blowing his best ever news cycle, did Trump just lose the election?

    In blowing his best ever news cycle, did Trump just lose the election?

    There is no precise, scientific means of explaining what determines elections, opinion polls or betting markets. Each election and each candidate is unique, and even the individual voter cannot reliably explain why they react in a certain way. My belief, held pretty much throughout my adult life based on the experience in England, is that […]

  • Scrutiny will eventually destroy Donald Trump

    Scrutiny will eventually destroy Donald Trump

    Sceptics of my longstanding, confident prediction that Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump in November often ask the same question – “He’s got this far despite you all writing him off, so why can’t Trump prove you all wrong again?”. The question is unarguably valid. Like so many others, I simply couldn’t envisage Trump lasting […]

  • Could the GOP still block Donald Trump?

    Could the GOP still block Donald Trump?

    Just a week ago, Donald Trump’s improbable bid to be president was looking likelier than ever. Senior Republicans were uniting around him and his poll deficit was closing fast. Hillary Clinton drifted out to 1.58 in the Next President market. Now, after just a small taste of what his campaign will look like, the handwringing has […]

  • Clinton on the brink of victory but can she unite Democrats?

    Clinton on the brink of victory but can she unite Democrats?

    Next Tuesday, arguably the most memorable primary season in the history of US politics will draw to a conclusion. Whereas the term ‘Super Tuesday’ is normally associated with the slew of key races at the beginning of March that, historically, have proved a decisive moment, the term has been repeatedly used during this cycle and […]

  • Reflections on that incredible GOP race

    Reflections on that incredible GOP race

    In mentioning a profound sense of anti-climax, I probably speak for most political gamblers. A brokered Republican convention, given wall-to-wall media coverage, with endless speculation about rule changes and new candidates would have been a dream scenario, producing volatile markets and countless opportunities to bet. Yet from being rated a near certainty on betting markets […]

  • Next market: Who will be Donald Trump’s running mate?

    Next market: Who will be Donald Trump’s running mate?

    So after all that, the GOP race is over. No dramatic finale in California, let alone the fascinating, unique spectacle of a brokered convention. It seems incredible that, less than three weeks ago, Donald Trump was weaker on betting markets than he’d been for months, drifting out to around 45%. Even more so that he […]

  • Is Donald Trump now being under-rated?

    Is Donald Trump now being under-rated?

    If not, there must be huge value to be found elsewhere Ahead of what seems a likely defeat tonight in Wisconsin, market support for Donald Trump continues to deteriorate. At 2.06 this morning, the GOP front-runner is the biggest odds he’s been since winning South Carolina in February to become the Republican Nominee. There are good […]

  • Interview with Steve Cheveney for Fox

    Interview with Steve Cheveney for Fox

    My second visit to the Fox studios in Washington DC was particularly enjoyable. In this film, I discuss the concept, scale and nature of political betting with Steve Cheveney, in addition to updating the US election odds and forecasting the race ahead. This was the morning of the Fox News Republican Debate from Detroit, about which I correctly […]

  • Arizona could be the last chance to stop Trump

    Arizona could be the last chance to stop Trump

    As in everything,  the gap between success and failure can be painfully thin in both betting and politics. The Missouri primaries demonstrated precisely why betting on politics can be so much fun. The combination of an updating televised scorecard alongside moving betting markets is highly addictive and there aren’t many markets where you have to […]

  • Super Tuesday 3: Bets and predictions

    Super Tuesday 3: Bets and predictions

    On what feels like it will be the most important night yet of this election, we have ten races to predict and play. Some of the odds have changed in the meantime, but yesterday’s piece offers a brief overview. First, lets start with a bet. Back Ted Cruz to win the Missouri Primary 10 units […]