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US Senate 2018: Backing No Majority offers numerous routes to profit
As the fallout from Brett Kavanaugh’s elevation to the Supreme Court dominates the headlines and narrative, the outcome of November’s mid-term elections remains unpredictable. Few are confidently predicting how the politics of this will play out, and those doubts are feeding into the markets. Democrats slip back for House majority From a low of 1.4,…
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How to play Betfair’s ever increasing range of Trump Specials
One thing nobody could accuse Donald Trump of is failing to spark interest in political betting. From the moment he took office, bettors have been trading the date of his exit date and whether he would survive a full term, not to mention winning a second term. In light of the latest developments in the…
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Texas Senate Betting: A race to define 2018 and beyond
Eight weeks tomorrow, US voters head to the polls for arguably the most important mid-term elections in their history. At stake is control of the House of Representatives, Senate and potentially by extension, the survival of the Trump Presidency. If Democrats win the first, they will likely start impeachment proceedings although they’ll need to win…
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The next big political outsider – Michael Avenatti for President
*Since writing this piece yesterday for Betfair, Avenatti’s odds have fallen from [100.0] to [40.0]. Such moves are typical so early in the race, when it doesn’t take much money to shift the market. I still think he’s a good value pick at [40.0] but equally doubt it will shorten up much more from here…
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Corruption will finish Trump but don’t bet on removal
Its all kicking off again in what has become the most bizarre political market in history. Just when it seemed that bettors were giving up on Donald Trump leaving office prematurely, the US legal system deals the President a double-whammy. Last night, Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort was convicted on eight counts of financial…
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Suburban backlash in Ohio 12 to intensify GOP mid-term worries
The biggest political betting event of 2018 will be November’s mid-term US Congressional Elections. Three months out, Betfair markets rate control of the House of Representatives a virtually even contest, with the Democrats slight favourites at 1.91. Republicans remain hot favourites to win the Senate at 1.37. Ohio 12 is an excellent bellweather for the…
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Escalating legal troubles spell bad news for Trump
Back in April, I explained the unique opportunities to hedge between various different, yet related, markets regarding Donald Trump’s future. While those odds have since shifted a little towards the president’s favour, the angle still offers trading mileage and the most recent signals point towards more drama ahead. A brief explanation of the hedging process…
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How to win money by hedging between Betfair’s Trump specials
Betfair markets related to Donald Trump’s future are kicking off again as FBI investigations into the US President and his closest allies intensifies. At odds of 1.63, the chance of him serving a full first-term in office has slipped to 61% from around 68%. At yesterday’s low point, it was just 58%. As ever with…
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Prepare for drama as Mueller endgame nears
Chaos in the White House may have become an inevitable part of the daily US political diet, but the latest and looming developments seem to suggest a dramatic new – perhaps final – twist in the Donald Trump saga. Bettors following the various Trump Exit Date and 2020 Election markets should be on red alert,…
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Are Trump betting markets underestimating Mueller?
Market sentiment towards Donald Trump is shifting significantly and, perhaps more pertinently, suddenly seems impervious to the relentless scandal and drama associated with this president. Back at the start of November, following indictments against four members of the Trump campaign, our market regarding whether or not he serves a full term in office spiked. At…