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Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?
This article first appeared on 30th August at casino.org Among the few sages that predicted Donald Trump’s historic betting upset in 2016 was Professor Allan Lichtman. He also predicted that the new president would be impeached and duly wrote a book laying out the case. He now predicts Trump will win again in 2020 unless the Democrats…
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2020 US Election – Could Donald Trump be replaced on the GOP ticket?
Donald Trump is weakening on Betfair’s 2020 US Election markets. From a low of 1.98 he’s out to 2.24 in the wake of atrocious polls and ever more erratic behaviour. There’s also a minor move against him to be the Republican Nominee, from 1.08 to 1.14. Granted, these are lower odds than the levels I’ve…
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Donald Trump Impeachment Betting and Analysis
Throughout the last few, relentlessly dramatic years, it has become increasingly clear that most of the British media is hopeless when it comes to covering US politics. Back in March, I immediately urged caution when almost every outlet portrayed Attorney General William Barr’s summary of the Mueller Report as fact – even the final word.…
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2020 US Election and Democratic Nominee Betting and Analysis
This article was first published on 17th July, for betting.betfair.com It has been three weeks since the first of the Democrat TV debates, as they search for their nominee for the 2020 US Presidential Election. During that short window, the betting has changed dramatically. Harris now favourite as Biden slips When former Vice President Joe…
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2020 US Election Betting: Is the Biden Bounce for real?
The most significant gamble towards the 2020 US Election is underway. In the fortnight since Joe Biden declared his candidacy, the former Vice President has risen to clear second favourite behind Donald Trump, with his odds shortening from 15.0 to a new low of 6.4 this morning. Biden opens up vast early primary lead If…
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Trump impeachment is back on the agenda
This piece was first published on 22nd April 2019 When last updating the Donald Trump saga, following the release of Attorney General’s William Barr’s four page summary into Russia investigation, I urged caution in drawing conclusions before the actual Mueller Report was published. Now a heavily redacted version has been released, that analysis is vindicated.…
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Cohen testimony was merely the start of Donald Trump’s nightmare
It made instant news around the world, overshadowing the North Korea summit failure, It even knocked Brexit off the Newsnight lead. Michael Cohen’s testimony to Congress was both captivating in detail – laying out the president’s crimes and sparking new lines of investigation into several more – and political theatre. But did it move Betfair’s…
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Next Conservative Party Leader – The Top Ten Rankings
I first wrote this piece six weeks ago. All the rankings and reasoning still apply! Following the legalisation of betting shops in the UK, the first political market to capture public attention was the 1963 contest to become the next Conservative Leader. The favourite Rab Butler was turned over by Alex Douglas-Home – starting a…
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Five potential Republican primary challengers to Donald Trump
As if 2019 didn’t present enough problems for Donald Trump, there are indications that he is losing Republican support. Previously compliant Senators now oppose him on a range of issues – tariffs, troop withdrawals, the shutdown. Further opposition looms if he persists with plans to call a state of emergency over funding for his wall.…
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2020 US Election: Amy Klobuchar would be Trump’s nightmare opponent
All elections are, apparently, now fought on social media. After 2016, it would be presumptive for political pundits to confidently predict who will fare best in that anarchic environment. I shall, therefore, just leave last night’s exchange between two 2020 candidates here for you to decide. Well, it happened again. Amy Klobuchar announced that she…