News broke this weekend that allies of Joe Biden report that the President intends to run for a second term in 2024. If true, this has significant impact on the betting and I’ve duly updated various odds for www.betonline.ag – for whom I hold a consultancy position.
First in our ‘Biden to Complete a Full Term‘, Yes is down to -220 from -165. I should add this move is not in response to a stream of bets – quite the reverse. An early exit remains very popular with bettors. Indeed, due to weight of money, we’re only offering +400 he leaves office during 2022.
For the Democratic Nomination, he’s down to +100 (Evens) from +165. Kamala Harris is out to +250 (5/2) from +165, while Pete Buttigieg drifts from +500 to +650, and Elizabeth Warren from +800 to +1000.
To win the 2024 Presidential Election, Biden’s odds are cut to +325 from +400. A Trump v Biden rematch is cut from +400 to +275 (11/4 or 3.75 in digital odds).
So what of the news? How seriously should we take it? There is a lot of water to run under a lot of bridges before 2024.
I am very cold on Biden’s re-election chances, as things stand. I think the Democrats are headed for a mid-term disaster – see our odds of -700 about Republicans gaining the House of Representatives and -300 about controlling the Senate.
The upshot of such defeats would be the stalling of Biden’s agenda and probably further hits in the polls. His approvals are down at a grim 42.8% today and I’m not confident they’ll recover very much, if at all. Come 2023, I suspect he will be trailing any Republican other than Trump by a sizeable margin.
That would be a massive deterrent to running, although of course Trump is hot favourite to run again (-110 for the GOP Nomination), so all may not be lost yet. This poll from the highly respected Marquette Law School had the incumbent 8% up last week.
For now though, I read this news as an attempt to kill a worrying story for Democrats. There has been much talk about Harris’ unpopularity, and a potentially divisive primary against Buttigieg. Add to the never-ending smears on conservative media regarding Biden’s mental health and you have a perfect storm.
Team Biden are right to try and end that speculation, and move the conversation on to his already considerable legislative achievements. However I don’t think we should assume this is the final story. There are plenty of legs in those survival and nomination markets, and doubtless plenty more speculation. By moving these odds, I’m simply trying to get ahead of it.
Regarding my personal betting – which is of course restricted to UK firms – I’ve now backed Biden at [3.1] for the Nomination on Betfair, and dumped earlier positions on Buttigieg and Warren, taking a very small profit.