Why I’m waiting for Biden’s decision


Some believed that Joe Biden’s appearance on the new Stephen Colbert show would be the launchpad for a Presidential run, that would transform the race to be Democrat Nominee. As it turned out, the VP confirmed what was already in the public domain – that he’s struggling to commit to such a life-changing decision, in light of the tragic death of his son.

As far as is humanly possible, my approach to gambling is to avoid getting involved in amateur psychology and second-guessing the minds of people I don’t know. Better to deal with hard data than speculation. For that reason, I’m sitting out the Democrat race until we know for sure.

Biden’s candidacy would be a gamechanger. If the race boils down to a Hillary Clinton v Bernie Sanders match-up, while the latter may surprise a few pundits in specific races – New Hampshire for example – I’ll be shocked were she to lose nationally.

With Biden in the race, though, such calculations would be transformed. For my money, he’s the Democrat’s most electable candidate. However Sanders would also benefit from the vote being split three ways, making victory possible just by getting a solid, reliable 35 – 40%.

Hillary remains my prediction for the Presidency, but I’m no rush to take a big risk yet!


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